S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The lower-end, or else.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up to 2581.50 was soon extended to a new high at 2585.50. Which was soon reversed back down to 2581.50, and lower. Trending back down touched 2571.50 as the afternoon bias environment began. Bouncing into and out of FOMC news only attacked the noon hour’s high up to 2578.50, but never recovered it to signal a bigger reversal underway. The balance of the session drifted back down toward its low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s 2571.50 low was touched soon after the Globex open. A brief, shallow bounce to 2574.00 was blind-sided by rumors of deficiencies among the tax reform proposals planned for release today. Its reaction plunged to 2565.50, and then another 2 points lower to pierce 2563.75. The balance of the night rallied back to attack 2574.00. Another tax reform rumor contradicting the original one triggered a blip-up to momentarily pierce 2574.00.
If, then…
Monday’s dip was the opportunity to reject Friday’s close above 2563.75, which had put into play the next higher objective at 2590.50. Last night’s retest of 2563.75 threatens the signal, which can be invalidated the same way it was triggered — by two consecutive closes below it. Meanwhile, its retest is just more constructive backing-and-filling during a window that can’t gain traction, originating from a position of strength for having unfinished business above. Otherwise, Exiting this morning’s open under yesterday’s 2571.50 lows would threaten to greet tomorrow’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2574.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2570.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2567.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market towards the second day of November it’s getting cold there is Big icicle here overnight you know yesterday started on a high note the high note that could have been delivered on Tuesday on Tuesday after second consecutive close above 2563 75 doesn’t look like 25 6375 is relevant on Monday the 2nd consecutive close above it but it is because it was Friday’s close above 6375 like the prior Friday that signaled 2590 50 is in play it was Monday’s close above 6375 unlike last Monday that confirmed by not rejecting it say that a break out it’s a different system buy confirming or confirming by not closing back under 6375 that the pattern is next being attracted to 2590 50 or now attracted to 25 1950 so that could have been delivered more meaningful e on Tuesday instead Tuesday just barely gapped up Hubbard range flat the hiring today the overnight at a greeted yesterday’s open was much more in line much more in line with what having held 2563 75 for a couple of days. So all systems go right in fact a little bit return back down and then extended down that Gap up the essays hi wants to be filled it’s not a requirement because it produced new highs because of produce new eyes on the way to a confirmed objective I confirmed that remains outstanding it does have a higher degree of likelihood of being retested being an attraction and by the way if tested that’s 2581 50 being an influence so it could cause some resistance but it does have some outstanding qualities to it and I don’t mean outstanding as far as impressive but they’re at standing and waiting to be neutralized 6375 goes down Wednesday or Tuesday we discussed throughout yesterday afternoon but never really got anything going as far as reversing up big impediment yesterday afternoon I wasn’t getting it done and that kept it too late to be actionable but that was the level anyway 7475 2427 475 and it was productive because of their ability but also because it was exploited by a headline for a headliner symbiotic relationshipsomething to doform something to do with one of the one of the proposals of tax reform that potential AV maybe it’s traveling but maybe the corporate tax lower corporate tax rate will be sunset it I don’t know I’ve heard nine years but the point is not favorable to this big event of the day the tax reform unveiling which had better be good presumably because last week’s rally was at least twice contributed to favorable developments and word coming out about the about the package a vote that was the market in other words has indicated that it is interested and willing to respond favorably to good news on the tax reform front and willing to respond poorly the bad news on it so it’s important that the probe under or down to 6375 here’s a retest 6375 it’s important that 6375 was were tested important that it held important that it was tested during the window that is very difficult to gain traction for its overnight it has to be maintained for the open if there’s a break on 6375 it’s important. That test out of the way when it was unlikely to gain traction for the effort to the overnight in other words if the open is back up don’t fall back and then resolve all of that can be pretty overnight what was the what’s this morning this morning by a 64 F 450 potentially being recovered not to say that that has direct requirement for this morning but it does reflect what kind of sewing pressure has been expended in potentially rejected if intraday action doesn’t take this chipping away at support take this overnight dip once again just as at with after Tuesday’s flat tire arranging let alone Monday’s lower session exclusively and negative territory that had an opportunity to break back under 6375 and make a difference did not last night’s pattern would be similar to one or both of Monday and Tuesday setup and rather than producing an overnight rally will it would be capable of producing Valley good morning rally when it can get in squeeze itself in there just ahead of tomorrow’s employment situation report and I’m not speaking to the likely reaction or not for tomorrow’s employment situation report will have to see a pattern plays out but 25 until proved otherwise at this moment seems on the verge of being rejected if yesterday’s today the saving grace to you pretty much exclusively in positive territory exclusively if it doesn’t that could get very quicklyrejected all togetherother markets I’ll see. Nothing that is at this moment actionable pound had opportunity and still has an opportunity to explain this close above 13250 because the downside of jective was fulfilled the criticism being that it was my criticism being that it was fulfilled and rejected without any accumulation taking place which undermines the rally potential and you can see it is having difficulty getting left out the inflection is there but the significance of that level is also there in that it’s pretty critical to extend higher and it’s not so it dip back down to 131 131 15 130 171 3115 get back down in here that could allow some accumulation that’s the pound the Looney has a bicycle above that’s being attacked Euro which I’m going brake on 1760 probably not fulfilled no matter how substantial the two-day break under it finally was probably not the end of the road for that decline should be some more some great or Consequences but meanwhile yesterday’s break lower after having fill the Gap back to to back to Thursdays close nothing unusual about reversing back down but gapping down and holding for the day probably going to need a bigger bounce before resuming the decline needing to hold this test this is just a guideline it’s not a requirement but just to get an indication of what kind of and now that it’s being tested it has to be rejected immediately to be relevant and that is a close above 8825 which wouldn’t be the first here let alone the first attempt but it would be that much more credible not really being attempted here gold right and sweet spot of resistance that if it can be recovered about 12:50 1270 750 really just that whole range of resistance get out above it and we can look at this as a completed bottom and we Odyssey at that point in accelerated pace back up to 1300 and higher meanwhile that is resistance nothing new happening over night silver outperforming quite a bit and leaving the 1650s outstanding which it’s remain outstanding the way up to and through its interim High yesterday did 1711 but was also overlapping it at the time so it’s somewhat suspicious second today would confirm a bottom is in a second preferably get out before closing today then it better be recovered as well or at least stay away from it keeps them in there from a boy’s perspective long be suspicious about this influential influential in resisting the rally the rally but it’s reaction down before recovering and and then closing basically in an attack back down on it that has held held optimistically short of actually touching itineffectual optimistic becausethat shallow depth relatively shallow depth to extend higher so not not convinced that this bouncing it is actually being recovered a second consecutive how to close today I will give it every benefit of the doubt that it is greeting tomorrow’s employment situation report from a position of strength but if it can’t close higher than 1:52 today closing I’m sorry 15220 closing back under 15220 today may as well close back under 152 because will expect a negative reaction to Friday’s report crude oil and two ways yesterday what is the gap up after having a tooth pulled yesterday warning shot that the next hour drive to 5570 is in play warning shot across the bow that we’re running out of buyers because it took it wasn’t able to sustain it did leave outstanding the Gap up that wants to be were tested now remember that kept alive the recovery because that was the minimum objective previously back up to 53 they just have this way of getting filled but once again had to hold 5388 s support 5388 has to hold in fact at this point we can introduce a cell signal essentially under 5388 5350 would take the next objective 5570 off the table 570 off the table but otherwise 5570 they have to at least fill the Gap open but that buyers failed to produce the required That Could Have Ended closing today would be bullish regardless of today’s price action overnight there’s a little bit of framing maybe I’ll see you there before they open nothing really 74 75 15 minutes otherwise we could be looking at the peak of the bounce this would be the peak of the overnight bounce otherwise 67 before confirming 7:50 if its recoverywould warn alright good luck today
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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2582.25 | 2579.25 |
| …would target | 2589.00 | 2586.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2573.50 | 2570.50 |
| …would target | 2567.50 | 2564.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday night’s 14-point rally to 2584.00 was briefly probed at Wednesday’s open by 6 ticks up to 2585.50. Reinforcements were unlikely to maintain the rally, not with so sizeable of a rally already, and the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement being just hours away. The morning’s dip back down to 2575.00 should have been the end of that reaction.
And in reality, it was. A favorable reaction to the FOMC news would have been likely. Until a terror scare triggered the 2574.00. bias-down that dipped again to 2571.50. It was invalidated, but never rejected. The noon hour’s 2578.75 high was attacked but never recovered. And the close settled back down at 2574.00.
The only “unfinished business” left outstanding is at Wednesday’s 2581.50 gap up above all prior highs. Even that isn’t a big enough attraction to prevent an even deeper dip from developing without delay. NOT already starting a deeper dip at Thursday’s open would reinforce the attraction up to Wednesday’s open, and to the 2590.50 objective still in-play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap Tuesday back up to Thursday’s 1.1685 close was enough to push price back down into Wednesday’s open. But the open’s lows held, and didn’t resume the decline, so a bigger bounce can’t yet be discounted.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength attacked 2582.00. Its reaction down Wednesday held 2577.50 as support, but still needs to recover 2580.50 through a close to launch a new rally leg.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite not yet extending down to its 16.50 target, overnight strength probed fresh relative highs attacking 17.05. A post-open dip Wednesday was recovered to higher highs intraday. Closing above 17.11 is still the minimum requirement to suggest momentum may be reversing up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s bounce to the 152-20 resistance reacted down into Wednesday’s open. But touching its 152-00 sell signal reacted up to fresh highs through the morning, and greeted the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement testing 153-00. A second consecutive higher close would be credible for extending higher, but back under 152-00 would target fresh lows.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding the shallow 53.88 pullback limit Tuesday maintained upside momentum, which probed the 54.15 objective overnight and extended higher Wednesday to 55.22. Dipping into the afternoon tested 53.88 through the close.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap down to fresh lows and session-long downtrend compensated for Monday’s ineffectual optimism that prevented fulfilling the session’s fresh low requirement. Bouncing overnight was similarly punished by reversing pre-open to trend down to fresh lows through the morning.
Mid-day Update… Energy conservation.
Post-open surge’s reaction is extended on news.
Dipping through the open down to 2580.00-2581.50 was recovered to fresh highs at 2585.50, forming an anchor that would likely attract price back up in case of reversing down. We’ll see. 
Overbought RSIs at the high encouraged a reaction down that ultimately broke under 2580.00, and extended down to 2575.00 by noon.
More so, the noon hour’s exit broke even lower to 2571.50. Its catalyst appears to have been news of a possible attack in London similar to yesterday afternoon’s New York tragedy. If so, then like yesterday, the selling is artificial and likely to be trapped. The question is when.
The headline’s reaction enabled triggering the 2574.00 bias-down signal. It was recovered by 1 tick at 1:30 to essentially invalidate the signal. That’s much less decisive than I like to see for invalidation purposes. Firming only another point since then hasn’t helped. And that’s despite the London incident being labeled NOT terror-related.
Meanwhile, the 2:00pm ET FOMC policy statement is just ahead. Attracting reinforcements did prove difficult ahead of FOMC and after the overnight rally. The 2585.50 high’s overbought RSIs don’t require its retest, but they can still be retested. And the 2590.50 objective remains intact. A bullish resolution is likely so long as the news is greeted from above 2571.00.