S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednedsay’s gap down tried resuming the decline immediately after Tuesday had filled the gap back up to last Thursday’s close. That would have been credible, had the gap down extended lower intraday. But it did not, keeping alive potential for a bigger corrective bounce, which was attempted Thursday morning by probing above Tuesday’s highs. The decline is free to resume at any time.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing above Wedneday’s high to 1295.00 was still reacted back down to test 1277.50, which must be maintained as support to keep alive the potential for launching a new rally leg in to the weekend, instead of a retest of last month’s Employment Situation report lows.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s close above the 17.11 buy signal was still only overlapping it, which Thursday also did despite probing slightly higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sideways ranging overnight hovered above the 152-20 bounce limit that had been probed intraday up to 153-10. That was only improved intraday Thursday up to 153-22, filling the 2-week old gap that was created on by launching the interim downleg. Back under 152-10 would signal momentum reversing down, but Friday’s Employment Situation report is otherwise being greeted from a position of strength.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s dip back down to the 53.88 pullback limit didn’t extend lower intraday, despite having room down to 53.50 without reversing momentum while still targeting 55.70.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, but not from a position of weakness, either. Gapping up slightly firmed intraday to attack 2.97 whose recovery would signal the next rally leg is underway.
Mid-day Update… All recovered (again) and nowhere to go.
Another dip recovered, but not reversed.
Anxiousness ahead of the post-close AAPL earnings and tomorrow’s pre-open Employment Situation report may be taking hold now. Price action for the balance of the afternoon could be paralyzed by anxiousness.
That might be an overstatement. There’s plenty of room for backing-and-filling within the existing range. Or price could hover at or around the afternoon’s 2574.75 bias-up signal which was pierced momentarily but not triggered.
Inhibition ahead of the news items can otherwise inhibit trending up. Only attack relevant levels but not yet recovering them means they held. And entering the bias environment still in negative territory is difficult to rally.
Hovering at or around 2574.75 could start breaking higher when the bias environment begins lapsing. That would be credible for extending higher. But breaking higher at all isn’t required.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 3, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ calendar is unusually busy. The Employment Situation is often released in a vacuum with few if any other economic data. But high-profile and influential items are staggered out the open. And any noticeable reaction to payrolls is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open items.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
12:15 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2577.75 | 2574.75 |
| …would target | 2583.50 | 2580.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2570.00 | 2567.00 |
| …would target | 2563.75 | 2560.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Isolation fails.
Recovering to a lat open fails to attract reinforcements.
The overnight drop to 2553.50 was retraced entirely to greet the open at yesterday’s 2576.00 cash session close. Isolating the probe under yesterday’s 2571.50 low would be bullish. There was ample positioning and proximity to trigger a fully-formed bullish isolation setup.
Of course, NOT triggering an an otherwise fully-formed setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish. And the isolation setup would have been pretty bullish.
Hovering at unchanged at least didn’t reject the recovery. It just never extended higher. Buyers must be sought at lower levels , which was risky because of an air pocket under yesterday’s 2571.50 lows. Ultimately a collapse retraced the overnight recovery entirely down to a fresh low at 2562.25. The 2564.50 bias-down target was still being touched at 10:15 (within 1 tick within 1 minute) to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
Now bouncing to attack 2669.00 is trying to isolate another test of 2563.75. Exiting the bias environment recovering its 2570.50 bias-down signal would suggest another upleg is underway. Back under 2565.75 would instead resume this morning’s decline, and set a much different, bearish tone leading into Friday’s payrolls.