S&P
Mid-day Update… The other shoe.
Other shoes dropping.
More news on indictment-Monday included a low-level campaign advisor’s guilty plea for lying to the FBI. He was being worked by a Russian agent, so it brushes up against the Russian collusion narrative. But it still falls short.
That hasn’t stopped the market hunkering down again, this time in reaction. Some tax reform headlines may have also contributed. Regardless, the morning’s break back under 2473.50 produced fresh session lows down to 2565.50. That’s 3 ticks under this afternoon’s bias-down signal, which didn’t trigger.
Oversold RSIs at the low don’t require being retested since they developed during the noon hour. Recovering into the afternoon bias environment has touched 2571.50. A pullback has room to test 2568.00 without yet beginning to signal fresh lows in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 31, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open PMI is released several minutes earlier to its institutional subscribers, and the reaction tends to be repeated when released publicly. Any noticeable reaction to the three earlier reports is likely to be duplicated by PMI, or by Consumer Confidence.
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2577.00 | 2574.25 |
| …would target | 2584.00 | 2581.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2568.75 | 2566.25 |
| …would target | 2564.00 | 2561.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… “It’s not about the money.”
It was about the money. And relief rally is underway.
Indictments were unsealed before the open, and they are basically tax evasion charges. No association with the Trump campaign or Russian collusion in any way. There wasn’t an immediate relief rally, but the overnight dip ended. 
The open’s first intraday opportunity to react was a blip-down that pierced the preliminary 2571.50 level by 1 tick. It snapped back up to 2575.25 before the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed.
My pre-open comments to the chaRTroom had identified the 2571.25 area a compelling buy, but preferably AFTER first touching the 2569.75 bias-down signal. That predicate didn’t happen. Consolidating through the bias timing window has resolved up to 2577.50. Its recovery through the open would have been bullish. Its recovery now would be likely to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 2578.50 close.
Meanwhile, the White House has issued a statement that the indictment doesn’t involve it, and alludes to involvement with Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager. It’s too late to trigger bias-up, but probing Friday’s 2580.75 high during the no-bias environment can’t be dismissed. Back under 2573.50 would suggest yet another, bigger shoe is dropping.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hunkering down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up was maintained above Thursday’s 2563.75 high, and reinforced to higher highs through the open. Sellers barely had a chance. The first hour’s exit did overlap a key support, but only by 2 ticks. And after having extended to new trend highs at 2580.75, the final hour’s entry threatened another key support to within 2 ticks. The 2577.00 support was pierced a couple of times while the final hour ranged sideways into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked down 4 points to 2574.75. Almost immediately recovering almost all of it was almost the only overnight strength. It was certainly the most. Lower lows produced another bounce of almost 4 points. But lower lows and lower highs have prevailed, as Globex has dipped 6 points overnight to attack 2572.00. Firming through Europe’s opens up to 2575.00 has been retraced to pierce a fresh low under 2571.75.
If, then…
Friday’s new trend high close fulfilled the prior Friday’s requirement. And now another new trend high close on a Friday now requires another eventual new trend high close. Closing above 2563.75 has also repeated last Friday’s close above 2563.75. A second consecutive close today would all but confirm 2590.50 is in-play. Last Monday did not confirm. Would releasing Friday evening’s news intraday have prevented Friday’s new trend high close? Indictments pending for Monday morning potentially divert Trump’s attention and political clout, which undermines the potential for tax reform — otherwise a catalyst of last week’s rally. There’s other headlines to attribute to the dip, but anything not directly attacking the campaign for collusion would likely trigger at least a relief rally. .
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2571.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2569.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2577.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2579.00 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
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