S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2581.25 | 2579.00 |
| …would target | 2586.50 | 2584.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2573.00 | 2569.75 |
| …would target | 2567.50 | 2565.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Market Wrap was held an hour early today, and I’m away from the screens for the final hour. You can watch the Wrap recording here.
New trend highs up to 2580.75 printed when the afternoon bias environment came within view of lapsing. The actual lapse trended back down under the noon hour’s 2578.75 prior high. This setup creates risk of trending down during the final hour.
Trending down into the close just a little could prevent a new trend high close on a Friday. Last Friday’s new trend high close still requires another, regardless.
Trending down into the close a lot could also prevent closing above 2563.75 recovery. Confirmed by a second-day consecutive higher close Monday would all but ensure extending to 2590.50. The last close above 2563.75 was not confirmed.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. CHARTROOM WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN AT SUNDAY NIGHT’S GLOBEX OPEN. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s ECB-plunge to and through 1.1760 to attack 1.1680 extended lower overnight. Gapping down Friday resumed the decline to test 1.1605.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing only slightly lower overnight tested 1264.00 before bouncing back above was able to hold 1266.50 through Friday morning, which starts to suggest the 3-week old low’s retest is holding.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending lower overnight gapped down Friday to test 16.60, still having potential to also test 16.50, despite the post-open reaction filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 16.80 close — if not also because the gap-fill held.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s open touched Wednesday’s 150-10 low and reacted up in reaction to a favorable Fed headline. Thursday’s 151-12 high was attacked, still likely to produce a new trend low close before bottoming again.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight continued to slow-play the ongoing firming, stopping pessimistically short of the outstanding minimum requirement to retest 53.00. Post-open action steepened the slope and extended through Friday morning to attack the next higher objective at 54.15.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down overnight tested the 2.96 sell signal’s 2.82-2.84 target. Gapping down Friday to 2.82 extended lower to attack the week-old 2.77 low. Now that the target is met, I’ll be rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a 15-cent premium to Nov, and has developed a deeper relative decline to fresh lows.
Mid-day Update… Flat, or lower?
Only one template says higher, and its clock is ticking.
This morning’s renewed bias-up extended. And extended. The renewed bias-up target was essentially Sunday night’s 2577.25 “new Globex trend extreme.” 
Its retest was fulfilled during the noon hour up to 2579.25. That pierced this afternoon’s bias-up signal by 1 tick, and held it. So, this is now a no-bias environment.
Friday afternoon no-bias environments tend to mean it, especially when a bias signal’s test holds. The balance of the bias environment — and often the balance of the session — simply ranges flat, if not flat to lower.
Today’s rally might seem an excellent candidate for ranging flat-to-lower. Primarily because resistance was nominal along the way up to neutralizing its objective. That might be compensated by finding significant resistance above it, which is the likeliest scenario. But since the objective was met by a single leg above the bias-up signal, the second likeliest scenario for one more probe higher remains possible.
So, how will we know? Or, how early will we know? Being a Friday, probing fresh highs through the bias environment exit tends to marginalize sellers through the close. Otherwise, breaking back under 2575.50 and 2572.50 would signal the a deeper pullback underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 30, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s reports aren’t influential to price action. The Fed survey can be high-profile, but otherwise not a market-mover.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET