S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s bounce had created a little more room to extend the corrective bounce, but Thursday morning’s ECB statement and Draghi’s press conference triggered a gap down that extended sharply lower to fresh lows through the morning. The 1.1760 support was probed to its lowest levels yet at 1.1687.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to attack 1284.00 was retraced to range most of the morning within 1277.50-1280.50, but breaking lower into the noon hour probed under Tuesday’s lows to test 1267.50. The bullish scenario now relies on forming a Double Bottom with the Employment Situation report’s 3-week old low.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight firming only tested 17.00 as resistance but resumed ranging just under 17.00 intraday Thursday morning, then breaking lower to test 16.75. A recovery still relies on closing above 17.11.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming into Thursday’s open only tested 151-22 before reacting back down into Wednesday’s range. At least an eventual lower close is likely outstanding, although meanwhile there is potential for a bigger corrective bounce up to 152-22.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday firmed to attack 52.70 which pierced recent highs, still targeting at least unfinished business above at 53.00.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeted Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness, having triggered its 2.96 sell signal targeting 2.84. Gapping down to 2.87 fluctuated there through the session.
Mid-day Update… You don’t see that every quarter.
Choppy ranging ahead of three high-profile earnings.
Perhaps the session has been contained, but not necessarily paralyzed. The morning’s post-open attack on 2564.00 reacted down to 2557.25. Its recovery up to 2565.00 was retraced to fulfill the consequences of its no-bias trending above 2561.50 and 2558.50. All before the noon hour.
The noon hour contained a knee-jerk reaction to a negative headline about tax reform talks. But only a knee-jerk reaction, as price action remains contained within a narrowing range.
Perhaps it’s just anxiousness ahead of post-close earnings due from AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT. That’s normal, but usually not until the afternoon. It seems to be the inverse today, with a lot of energy being expended to contain trending attempts, instead of no energy being expended to even try trending.
The ranging may yet persist into the close, as it normally does the afternoon ahead of these three earnings (let alone all three on the same day). Another break higher would still be credible for extending. But the only “unfinished business” outstanding is below from this morning at 2550.50, keeping alive the attraction back into yesterday’s range, and the potential for probing under yesterday’s low.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s GDP is high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action. The post-open Consumer Sentiment number does often generate a price reaction, and similarly inhibits price action ahead of its release.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2566.00 | 2563.50 |
| …would target | 2571.00 | 2568.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2558.25 | 2556.00 |
| …would target | 2553.00 | 2550.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Scale model.
Is post-open action a smaller version of the bigger pattern?
Firming up to 2563.25 greeted the open at the 2561.50 bias-up signal. An eventual break higher retested the pre-open high, briefly. Then price started slipping, and slipping.
Yesterday’s 2557.50 high was just tested as support. Along the way down, bias-up failed to trigger at 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2550.50 bias-down signal is now in-play.
Reacting up to 2560.00 stopped short of even threatening to invalidate the bias-down signal. But the reaction also prevented the first hour from extending its slide back into yesterday’s range. The burden of proof is now on sellers to resume the decline before the bias environment begins lapsing. The slide is likelier to resume later.
Meanwhile, backing-and-filling just attacked 2563.00, within the context of being a corrective bounce (after 10:30, so it’s too late to invalidate the no-bias signaled at 10:15). Back under 2561.00 would start to signal the bounce has failed, and is resolving down. Probing any higher would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure.