S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Explosive, handle carefully.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Intraday volatility continued its recent expansion Wednesday, not only with the morning’s plunge from 2565.00-2566.00 to the noon hour’s 2541.50 low, but also its afternoon recovery up to 2556.00-2557.50. Meanwhile, breaking under 2554.00 before morning bias environment lapsed and remaining under it into the afternoon bias environment entry suggests the decline’s sponsorship was strong-handed. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding, although bouncing from only a touch of the 3-week old low does also suggest the afternoon’s reaction was only obligatory.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s last reaction down from 2557.50 had reacted up to 2555.00 at the cash session close. Futures extend the last-minute bounce to almost 2559.00. The enthusiasm had originated too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. That’s now somewhat evident by not really advancing since then, barely touching 2560.00. Only somewhat evident, since the last-minute surge hasn’t yet been rejected by narrow ranging whose attack on 2556.00 is now reacting back up through 2560.00 by 3 ticks.
If, then…
Although duration and timing spent under 2554.00 yesterday has established a anchor for sellers — making any bounce only temporary until a deeper correction is completed — gapping up Thursday is possible and would be credible for extending Wednesday afternoon’s recovery. Retesting Sunday night’s highs before first probing fresh lows would then likely form a durable top. Which gapping down Thursday would make likely, a probe under Wednesday’s 2541.50 low to at least test 2536.00. The narrow overnight range might seem at odds with the gap potential, but it is only stable in the same sense as nitroglycerin is kept stable to prevent detonation.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2554.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2550.50 bias-down signal at 1015. Exiting the open under 2556.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2561.50 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market to her I’m a little surprised because I was ready to trade this overnight and we got nothing nothing I shouldn’t be that surprised because the ECB policy statement is this morning coming up about 45 minutes from now 7:45 Mario draghi speaks afterward the big question that the statement should address not rates which are expected to remain steady but what sort of tapering they’re planning for next year rumored to be about it 50% cut back in purchases so weather balloons LED balloons get to that expectation we’ll see how much that’s already been built into the market dissipated already before getting into this anxiousness overnight the bases here is for having spent so much time during those specific times timing windows yesterday under 25 50 for the relevant level before recovering and because the recovery then stopped short of rejecting that time and amount of time spent under that relevant level that any kind of bounced from yesterday’s low is temporary until yesterday so bouncing further this morning whatever which itself kind of obligatory here just touching 2541 50 which had been the employment situation reports so it’s the pivotal load to the actual love that pull back and having touched it says that the actual going to be tested which would have been fine if they have been done yesterday right away instead of standing undermining any reaction up we have to address that this reaction up if it does catch statement why not will be favorable and was forming a durable topandback under yesterday’s late Lowe’s 51 would set up an attraction back down to yesterday’s new Darlow 4150 and again 4150 just having touched the prior load of the pivotal low that is set up a retest of the actual low of that pull back which was 3950 but really targets or measures out to 32 test 3635 361-535-2536 but that would be if that were tested first before neutralizing Sunday night size or retesting Sunday night size let alone putting a new High clothes at their press conference coming after the ECB policy statement not a lot else going on and has unfinished business Euro yesterdayTuesday but we’re not greeting from a position of weakness so that would be likely resistance 1 1865 to checking it out overnight when 1812 11868 was tested so that’s retested the reward is probably to probe the week old high last Thursday’s High when 1895 none of which changes the complexity of complexion of this entire range just biding its time before breaking under one 1760 missed an opportunity yesterday not giving up just like Tuesday having recovered of the Friday’s eyes but not closing above and below very critical that that result in a higher close it’s that kind of action that got this drop into going or we started this previously this is a month ago probing lower lows recovering but not closing above those prioritize and then you can see that vulnerability gold holding that range 12 750 but getting a little late to be rejecting it if in fact that is a bottom really need to get that going today would be the Catalyst what you’d expect that to happen so it to happen silver somewhere around 7 1711 The Weeknd and then let alone and not following through yesterday that there’s potential forbutso 15119 for instance being attacked herebarely that’s the normal least likely potential crude oil presumably waiting for its natural position of weakness are they extending lower overnight the objective of this setup being 284 at least get that out of the way you know the the reaction to the I could test that and hold and be in recovery mode by the clothes that’s possible alright that’s it any questions let me know if you coming shortly and I’ll try to track that as it’s coming up good luck today
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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2563.75 | 2561.50 |
| …would target | 2568.00 | 2566.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2552.50 | 2550.50 |
| …would target | 2547.00 | 2544.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL HELD | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday morning’s plunge from 2565.00-2566.00 held under 2554.00 for long enough to suggest the decline’s sponsorship was strong-handed. Waiting so long to recover 2554.00 suggested the same, that any rally to any degree — even retesting Sunday night’s highs — would be only temporary.
Recovering from the noon hour’s 2541.50 low peaked at 2556.00-2557.50, which had been the morning decline’s minimum objective. (Reaching 2558.75 came too late to be relevant.) Already having reacted down pre-close, gapping up Thursday is possible and would be credible for extending the recovery. By the same token, gapping back down Thursday would target a retest of Wednesday’s 2541.50 low.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still firming ahead of Wednesday’s open continued firming intraday. Thursday’s ECB policy statement is not being greeted from a position of weakness, albeit having bounced optimistically short of filling an outstanding gap.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting Tuesday’s lows overnight became very volatile Wednesday, probing a fresh pullback low and eventually recovering to 1280.50 as resistance. Almost any early strength Thursday would be credible for extending.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight blip-down pierced Tuesday’s lows, which already were challenging the bottoming attempt by not closing decisively above 17.00. There was no follow-through, but not closing back above 17.00 undermines the bottoming pattern.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s drop back to 151-18 support only held there instead of rejecting it, and trended down sharply overnight to probe the Employment Situation report’s 151-08 reaction low down to 150-14. Being the second consecutive lower close from the Fri-Mon multi-session range, at least an eventual third lower close is required before a durable bottom can again try forming.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Shallow overnight weakness still greeted Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Spending the entire session in negative territory still held high enough to be only an “inside day” from which any initial strength Thursday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two days of hovering at or above the 2.96 sell signal broke lower overnight, gapping down Wednesday on the way to its 2.84 target where a better bottoming attempt could form. But Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… That’s gonna leave a mark.
Too deep to be temporary, but what about a temporary bounce?
The open’s slide from 2565.00 extended substantially lower, testing and attacking all sorts of relevant prior lows down to 2541.50. 
But it may be done, or at least bottoming. Maybe. Entering and exiting the noon hour under 2554.00 has created a weak base to try launching bounces.
The Employment Situation report’s intraday low was 2541.50. Reacting up from touching it during the noon hour is very likely only an obligatory bounce, i.e. temporary. That bounce could extend, back up to 2554.00 or higher. It just touched 2550.00.
Meanwhile, this afternoon’s 2546.75 bias-down signal just avoided triggering. Its 2540.75 was attacked to within 3 ticks, so it wouldn’t have become “unfinished business below.” But the target’s test would be likely if 2546.75 doesn’t hold through 1:30. Back under 2546.00 at any time would target fresh lows.
Retesting the highs before probing lower to 2536.00 is now unlikely. Not without closing at least above 2563.75. And probing lower could extend much deeper than 2536.00.