S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2551.00 | 2549.00 |
| …would target | 2556.00 | 2554.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2543.00 | 2541.00 |
| …would target | 2537.00 | 2535.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thanks to Thursday morning’s substantial rally, plenty of room had been created to expend selling pressure without it damaging the chart pattern. Friday’s reaction down to the pre-open Employment Situation report held tests of the 2543.00 pullback limit. That’s a reasonable amount of selling pressure to expend without even threatening to reverse the trend down.
That said, the timing of Friday morning’s low – that is, still testing 2543.00 into the noon hour without yet recovering — does keep alive some vulnerability to probing lower. But the origin of probing lower would now still be from a position of strength, having failed to exploit the opportunity for trending down Friday.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s “unfinished business above” at 2552.00 remains outstanding to help attract price higher. A 7-day streak of higher closes has been interrupted by a pullback, which requires Monday to overcome if the Up/Down-crash setup will remain intact.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
There is NO weekend Saturday Review until next week.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite spiking down to fresh lows in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, the morning recovered back above 1.1760. The action is reminiscent of ongoing behavior at the same precise level during August, before the interim rally that has now been retraced. But there is no bullish reason to have retraced the entire raly.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s payrolls was a mini-plunge to fresh lows. It wasn’t being attempted from a position of weakness, as the 1280.50 target area had continued holding as support. In fact, it was recovered entirely by the afternoon. Almost any higher close Monday would suggest a bottom is forming.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.50 target was finally tested in reaction to Friday’s payrolls report probed by a dime and then recovered entirely into positive territory through the morning. The low’s retest isn’t required, but probably won’t be avoided without extending higher through Monday’s close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s knee-jerk reaction to monthly payrolls was to probe the next lower objective at 151-08/151-11. Its anticipated reaction back up stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. Closing negative Friday to fulfill the outstanding objective would enable a pullback to 151-18 would help to finish forming a bottom.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down under Wednesday’s 49.75 low ended the week at a new relative low, making near-term recovery unlikely without another fresh low. So, greeting the new week bouncing would likely fail.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s 2.89 close was already likely. But gapping down to it Friday only extended down below it. A second consecutive lower close on Monday could prevent any near-term bottoming, let alone recovery.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 9, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Banks are closed for the Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. No mail delivery, and government bond cash markets don’t trade. But stock markets are open, potentially for the last off lower-volume sessions that have defined this rally, if not also enabled it.
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2549.00 | 2547.00 |
| …would target | 2554.00 | 2552.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2543.00 | 2541.00 |
| …would target | 2537.00 | 2535.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.