S&P
Post-open Review… Hardly a scratch.
Payrolls reaction holds the pullback limit.
The narrow overnight range had started ticking lower ahead of the Employment Situation report, touching 2547.50. The news reaction extended down to 2543.25. Another tick lower could have been touched without even threatening the chart’s trending pattern.
Not only touched, but tested. The pullback could probe under 2543.00 down to 2541.00 and still be considered as only noise. But it was only attacked to within 1 tick. So, stopping optimistically short makes the delay suspicious. Back under 2545.50 would target 2543.00 down to 2541.00.
Meanwhile, the delay has bounced up to 2547.50. Almost any higher would likely fill the gap back up to yesterday’s 2549.25 close. And probably also probe fresh highs, including the 2552.00 unfinished business above. Reversing back down from there would form a bearish Pivot Reversal setup, which we’ll explore if fresh highs are probed.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Jobs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open had been greeted by a narrow flat-to-higher overnight range. The range had just begun breaking higher shortly before the open, attacking 2540.00. The open’s reaction down to 2537.00 was recovered on the way to fresh highs. That little reaction, brief was leveraged both by buyers chasing the rally higher, and by actual fundamental developments. More than being a reaction to headlines, the news had contradicted expectations.The afternoon was greeted ta 2549.25, only 2 ticks under the close, despite having triggered its 2547.00 bias-up signal. The 2552.00 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business above.”.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s narrow ranging was at least flat-to-higher, briefly attacking 2551.00. Last night’s range was flat, and narrower than the prior two that had at least challenged a 2-point width. But calling it the open’s indication would ignore the narrowness’s cause, which is the impending Employment Situation report.
If, then…
I began tracking this upleg’s correlation to the Up/Down-crash setup after day-5 Yesterday was day-7 of consecutive higher closes. This upleg comes within one week of the prior stretch, which lasted 8 days. Neither stretch included the interruption of a lone counter-trend down-day. So, closing negative today after this morning’s payrolls report would not disrupt the setup’s count. Meanwhile, closing higher today would be a new trend high close on a Friday, further entrenching the uptrend and its characteristics. Considering the cumulative “unfinished business below” that has been left outstanding so the rally could extend, today’s intraday action could be wide-ranging, and multi-directional, taking wide swings before the close.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered before an Employment Situation report.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The morning’s rally had gotten exponential, robbing the balance of the session of its momentum. The velocity helped to support the market by the limit orders resting under the market, lying in wait to buy pullbacks. And the afternoon did trigger its 2547.00 bias-up signal. So the attraction to its 2552.00 bias-up target kept the rally aloft.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2554.50 | 2552.00 |
| …would target | 2559.75 | 2557.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2545.50 | 2543.00 |
| …would target | 2539.25 | 2536.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to attack recent intraday lows at 1.1780 then trended down through the morning to probe under 1.1760, potentially launching the next downleg except for the gap and higher prior lows now outstanding from the midweek consolidation.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s shallow gap up was soon retraced to test Wednesday’s close, possibly inhibited by anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday immediately began gravitating back down to Wednesday’s close, still attracted to the outstanding target below at 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s early strength was soon reversed down by the outstanding requirement for at least one more new low close. The morning’s dip touched Tuesday’s 152-00 low ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday morning’s surge back into Tuesday’s range broke its 50.75 high which is also the pattern’s buy signal. Closing above 51.55 would confirm the 52.75 high will be retested.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA weasn’t greeted from a position of weakness, but neither was it a position of strength. So the knee-jerk reaction up to 2.99-3.00 resistance reacted back down into Wednesday’s range, with potential for filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s 2.89 close.