S&P
Mid-day Update… News-driven?
Good news triggers morning rally.
This morning’s 2537.00 bias-up signal triggered while its 2541.50 bias-up target was being attacked, and attacked, and attacked. A slightly higher high actually tested the target. Narrow ranging continued overlapping it until the bias environment began lapsing.
And then the rally extended. The suddenly steep slope suggests that’s where the rally actually began. Like yesterday, the bias environment lapsing trended straight up into the noon hour’s 2549.25 high. Unlike yesterday, there was actual news associated (House passes budget, inches closer to tax reform, surprising the recent gloomy opinion spin).
The balance of the noon hour and now this much of the afternoon bias environment have hovered at or under the 2549.25 high. Meanwhile, this afternoon’s 2547.00 bias-up signal has triggered.
Having expended so much buying pressure so quickly, the balance of the afternoon is vulnerable to backing-and-filling. Having created so much extra upside, pullbacks have room down to 2543.00 before threatening the chart pattern. But probing a fresh high — especially fulfilling this afternoon’s 2452.00 bias-up target — could trigger a pullback if not already done.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is often released in a vacuum, at least not surrounded by other reports. While only one other post-open report follows the pre-open payrolls, the session is littered with Fed speakers from late-morning throughout the afternoon.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
9:15 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren speaks on Saturday
11:45 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
12:15 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
12:45 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
1:50 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2549.50 | 2547.00 |
| …would target | 2554.50 | 2552.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2543.25 | 2540.75 |
| …would target | 2536.50 | 2534.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Chin up.
Pre-open new high extends post-open.
Maybe “extend” is too generous. Flat-to-higher seems to be more appropriate lately. Anyway, the overnight 2-point range broke a couple of points higher two hours before the open. Its 2539.75 high reacted down enough to overlap yesterday’s 2538.00 high at the open.
That was extended up to 2541.00, 2 ticks short of the 2541.50 attraction. Coming to within 2-3 ticks prevents it from becoming “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. It has been attacked twice, so ought to be touched regardless.
Meanwhile, 1-minute RSI is barely attacking overbought territory. Back under 2537.75 would signal momentum already reversing down. The trend otherwise remains up, but no less vulnerable to peaking.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I am unavailable during the final hour today. Market Wrap will be recorded and emailed tonight, along with tomorrow morning’s bias parameters.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight detachment again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session left the chart with another new high close, with no unfinished business above — other than coming closer to significant attraction at 2541.50. open was greeted by a narrow flat-to-lower ranging. Post-open action blipped-down momentarily to a fresh low at 2529.00, but the morning bias environment repeatedly tested 2532.00 resistance. The bias environment launched a rally to 2538.00. The afternoon’s reaction down attacked the morning’s highs, which held as support through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Last night’s 2-point range has been as narrow as the prior night. Narrower, not including Tuesday’s late 2-point dip lower. That may yet develop. Meanwhile, the two ranges differ in their bias — last night isn’t flat-to-lower but flat-to-higher, almost imperceptibly until the past hour. This morning’s 2537.00 bias-up signal was just touched.
If, then…
Tuesday’s new high close was similar to Wednesday, having left no unfinished business above. But it differed by not creating any upside attraction intraday. Being an inflection point, the morning’s buy signal above 2533.00 doesn’t qualify. No bias objective above had been outstanding, and no bias-up was triggered. Normally, this might reflect strong underlying demand, except the move was limited to the cusp between windows (bias environment lapsing into the noon hour). Extending higher later would have reflected reinforcements. And so would extending higher this morning, if maintained. But extending higher only temporarily (then closing negative under 2535.50) would qualify today’s higher high as upward momentum failing. Not even probing a higher high but closing under yesterday’s 2529.00 low would signal momentum reversing down. Avoiding such disqualifiers has kept alive this rally leg for more than a week. That has been done by continually creating upside attractions. A lot of that will be undone quickly if new highs has begun inhibiting new accumulation.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2535.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2538.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Yo it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or quick housekeeping note at the top here I will be unavailable during in this is going to be unknown really during the final hours of Market at the very least we will not have a market wrap post close updates will be late tonight and the that includes the bias signals I will record the market wrap but it won’t be at the clothes that’s what’ll be available late tonight as well and I hope to get that out of the way but I’m not sure that it’ll be at the date that’s right the time that it’s only published available so we’ll see on that and there will be about an hour away from the screens before being in front of Greenville more time available range open this was the overnight range and it just started dipping lowered ultimately did the little bit lower than a couple hours of the open even tried it wasn’t a little lower and rejected that signal avoided so that wasn’t broken but not until the so and no higher closed above the morning that’s put into play to get up here no accumulation down below that targets are met any way that could be if we don’t know until we get the defining action and that is either the afternoon could have closed higher it didn’t today without backing off could close higher it may or weave know that we find out that is that it’s not strong hands that broke above Tuesday’s eyes yesterday but we can’t because a closed under under its morning’s low didn’t do that today could probe yesterday’s high trying to extend that rally that hasn’t been rejected but failed to close Above It Could Happen 4150 2541 50 is the next high resistance is significant resistance or even without probing a fresh High today’s session could just run down 4150 doesn’t have to be tested Trend down and close under this morning’s low where at 6 and going on seven sessions of higher closes not being rejected pure uptrending but mostly are essentially on sessions that have been working their way toward some unfinished business above their for an attraction or creating intraday attraction like a bicep triggering a bias up and then get him there yes it was first day too didn’t do that but extended higher anyway and by the way extended higher I should point out during the noon hour I’m sorry into the noon hour during first of all as I said the breakup of the bicep signal when the happened when the bias environment started lapsing it also ended pretty much when the bias environment and it is well and into the noon hour the new not of the buy some ornaments high in fact as it was lapsing call 836-5037 that’s pretty much to find the highs except for this blip up during the otherwise irrelevant noon hour so getting some indications that need to be met either by offsetting the potential negative aspects or that will confirm the negative aspects but they are negative aspects and I should also point out with the three minutes that there is a reaction down there is unfinished business at the earliest outstanding or take it back to Friday Friday morning as trending that broke about 8:25 or 9:50 that hasn’t prevented it but it has created and left outstanding and that’s just the beginning because 6 if I were to fail and remember what we talked about this Saturday the Saturday review and that is Rally attempt in the question a couple weeks ago in other words waiting for that wild that sector starts or before that sector or complex gets all of its ducks in a row but really anything short of 12 87-88 is suspicious as just being a collective nouns Tuesday but that didn’t satisfy the outstanding requirement for at least one more lower close that’s under the last week’s was not just probing under it in today and that inhibited yesterday’s Gap up from extending which isn’t inhibiting this morning or overnight from bouncing again but we’re going to look for clothes it’s not something I would be short for but something I would consider buying upon it being reacted to the next morning or the next day just got to wait for that because of the strong potential if not likelihood or even requirement for a fresh loaf close I’m just not able to call this an accumulative area or use this for accumulation a less 15314 is recovered close above 15314 I’ll look at it and see if it comes from closing 5314 but until then just just an observer of crude oil and this morning Natural Gas but we do have it on Monday and confirm Tuesday and that allowed or enabled yesterday’s bouncy essays open touched and the reaction down neutralize the Gap back to Monday’s open that would have required being filled and is now not 3 until this evening review this weekend .