S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2539.75 | 2537.00 |
| …would target | 2544.25 | 2541.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2533.25 | 2530.50 |
| …would target | 2528.00 | 2525.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s late-morning rally to fresh highs almost came from nowhere. Overnight action was flat-to-lower, the opposite direction from the two prior sessions. Post-open action had extended the overnight dip to 2529.00. Initially. But the morning bias environment ultimately ranged flat-to-higher.
Wednesday afternoon’s failed opportunity to reverse the intraday trend couldn’t have been more productive. Any more productive — probing any lower under 2532.75 — wouldn’t have failed its reversal attempt, and would have ended the day in negative territory. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher, until retracing 61.8% of the noon hour’s peak.
Closing above 2532.00 undermines the room for noise above Tuesday morning’s bias-up signal, which was allowable while detouring away from fulfilling its 2520.25 objective.
There’s no less vulnerability Thursday to breaking lower immediately and trending down intraday. No “unfinished business above” is outstanding to ensure recovering, although a retest of Wednesday’s 2538.00 high would target 2541.50.
Meanwhile, we’re starting to track a potential Up/Down-crash setup. Six consecutive sessions of closing higher is stretching the rubber band to either snap back down or else surge sharply higher. At least 10 sessions are needed for the setup. An 8-day streak from Sep 11 stopped short.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s intraday bounce was mostly retraced through the close, but its high was already probed overnight ahead of Wednesday’s open. That test was also reversed into the afternoon, still likely to trend under 1.1760 and lower.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight from Tuesday’s temporary intraday probe under Monday’s low stopped short of triggering a buy signal like 1287.00. All of the rally was retraced intraday.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline’s likely 16.50 objective remains outstanding, despite surging pre-open above 16.80. The attraction below helped to absorb Wednesday’s pre-open strength, and to retrace it down to 16.55.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing into Wednesday’s open was still a half-point short of the 153-14 buy signal, while further delaying the eventual third lower close still required by last week’s confirmed breakout. The early bounce was reversed into negative territory.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight had potential to extend Tuesday’s break lower that had otherwise held its test of “lower prior highs” as support. Holding 49.75 all but requires recovering without further delay to avoid a deeper decline.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight firming was shallow, but Wednesday’s open surged higher to 3.00, touching “higher prior lows.” Its reaction down to Monday’s 2.97 open neutralizes its attraction, and allows a bottom to form.
Mid-day Update… Late stretch, late failure.
Reacting down from noon hour high.
The open did not extend higher. Which wasn’t surprising since yesterday’s rally was stretched by weak-handed sponsorship.
But a mini-plunge to 2529.00 didn’t extend down, despite the vulnerability.
The morning’s 2532.75 bias-up signal was recovered, and then probed when the bias environment came within view of lapsing. That extended higher into the 2538.00 noon hour high. Overbought RSIs at the high — if 1-minute RSI can even be considered overbought there — don’t require a retest since that was during the noon hour.
The afternoon 2536.50 bias-up signal was tested, but it failed to trigger. An offsetting test of the 2531.00 bias-down signal isn’t required. But reacting down into the bias environment is testing 2533.00.
If this dip isn’t absorbed, then it should at least probe negative territory under 2532.00. Closing in negative territory would be likely. Closing under the morning’s 2529.00 low would even form a bearish Pivot Reversal. Otherwise, back above 2536.00 would all but ensure extending to 2541.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 5, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is extremely busy. Not only because of several high-profile reports, none of which are reliable for influencing price action, but because of a virtual cornucopia of Fed speakers. Any obvious price reaction to the morning’s first report is likely to be duplicated by subsequent reports. That’s not necessarily the case with Fed speakers.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
9:10 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
9:15 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Esther George Speaks
4:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET