S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The afternoon’s noN-bias environment reacted down from the noon hour’s 2515.50 high. A sell signal at 2512.50 was touched, but not pierced, avoiding a break lower. The morning’s 8-10 point rally was vulnerable to an afternoon break lower, but there was no shortage of optimism to prevent it.
Optimism aside, there is “unfinished business below.” The morning’s rally was “no-bias trending” above its 2509.50 bias-up signal. Its retracement is required, if not also the 10:15 bias timing window’s 2408.00 print. As an example, Wednesday’s no-bias trending was retraced overnight, and held as support. Retracing Friday’s no-bias trending need not hold.
Meanwhile, Friday’s new trend high close entrenches the rally. At least one more new trend high close is required. That doesn’t prevent an immediate pullback, whether lasting multiple hour or multiple days. It only prevents an immediate pullback from extending down durably.
Lower-volume sessions can cut either way. Friday afternoon’s dwindling participation ahead of the Yom Kippur holiday may have prevented the morning’s rally from extending. It also could have enabled its retracement. Monday’s higher-volume session will be more telling.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30AM FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW. ITS LINK WILL BE EMAILED IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still firming into Friday’s open after filling one gap above at 1.1855 with potential to fill another at 1.1900. But closing first back under 1.1830 would signal the decline has resumed.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slightly firmer overnight was still short of the 1298.50 buy signal that really should have triggered already Thursday to avoid retesting Wednesday night’s 1280.50 low.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing slightly lower into Friday’s open kept alive the 16.60 attraction, which the balance of the session reversed down to attack within a nickel. Meanwhile, not yet fulfilling 16.60 has made 16.50 likely to be tested, too.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Shallow overnight weakness held Thursday’s confirmation lows ahead of Friday’s open. Although Wednesday’s break requires at least one more eventual lower close, producing it after closing above 153-14 would be from a position of strength likely to recover quickly.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging under the 51.55 sell signal held Thursday’s low, still not triggering it and suggesting that Thursday’s gap up would be retested before a credible downleg could begin.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Filling the gap Thursday back down to Tuesday’s close had robbed the reversal of its momentum. But only ranging narrowly Friday did not replace that with upside momentum, leaving intact the 2.93 target below.
Mid-day Update… Anchored.
New highs through two timing windows.
Remember that narrow 2-point overnight range? This morning was something else entirely. and that post-open 4-1/2 point dip? Retraced entirely, and pales in comparison
to the 11-point rally that its recovery became.
All this morning. Probing new highs — and not by a little, thanks to starting the rally early. All within expectations. Also within expectations? Vulnerability to an afternn if this afternoon does reverse down, this morning’s rally is too steep of a trajectory to contain the ultimate high.
But noN-bias just triggered, so there is no higher target in-play. And this morning’s rally above its 2509.50 bias-up signal originated too late to trigger. It is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced, often also to its 10:15 print which was 2508.00.
This being a Friday, not already reversing down as the bias environment lapses would instead be vulnerable to extending higher into the close. A meaningful portion of market participants is about to start leaving early for the Yom Kippur holiday, and thinner volume can have volatile effects at these heights.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 2, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is unusually busy for a Monday. Both with high-profile AND influential items. And that’s just the morning, with staggered post-open reports. The afternoon’s Fed speaker keeps things interesting.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2517.25 | 2514.50 |
| …would target | 2522.00 | 2519.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2511.00 | 2508.50 |
| …would target | 2505.50 | 2502.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.