S&P
Post-open Review… Warning shot.
Post-open dip is recovered, for now.
As was suspected, the narrow overnight range wouldn’t bear any resemblance to this morning’s action. Which explains the second minute launching 4-minute 3-point surge to 2509.25.
It also explains the 4-1/2 point reaction down to 2504.75. Actually, not even a 3-point drop, once it finally got underway. (The open’s surge had quickly settled into a consolidation.)
It also explains the reaction’s recovery, back up to 2509.25. So far.
So far, because we’ve also suspected this morning would probe new highs. Gapping up would have ensured it, and also made the probe durable. Not gapping up could still produce new highs, and become very vulnerable to reversing back down.
The post-open reaction down could be a glimpse of that reversal down. Reversing is always difficult on Fridays. Reversing down is more difficult — not only from an intraday high, but from a multi-session high.
The past two Fridays threatened to collapse, and recovered instead. The same is entirely possible today. But look out below if not, if unusually slower afternoon volume prevents absorbing another dip back into the range, and the post-open dip was only a warning shot across the bow.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No excuses.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted by a late break down to 2499.00 that neutralized Wednesday’s “unfinished business below.” Trending back up to 2508.25 peaked as the afternoon bias environment was lapsing. The last 60-90 minutes ranged choppily sideways, still under Wednesday’s high. The intraday uptrending inside day suggests its sponsorship was weak-handed, especially for not producing new highs despite having neutralized unfinished business below.
Overnight action’s new info…
The narrow 2-point overnight range between 2505.50-2507.50 is otherwise meaningless, except in context. The market is hovering pessimistically short of its highs, having stopped short of the highs the prior day.
If, then…
Having failed to gain traction yesterday, only gapping up today above prior highs would be credible for trending higher today. The proximity leaves no excuse for the rally not to try, unless it’s preparing another downleg. Flat-to-higher without gapping up could still temporarily probe new highs intraday. Without gapping up sufficiently, resolving down initially or eventually is likely, for the same reason that rallying Thursday was unlikely — because Wednesday’s new highs had reversed to close under prior highs. Gapping up isn’t currently indicated, but isn’t yet too late or too far away to produce, and would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher. Not gapping up would keep the door open to a downleg before the close. Regardless, being the quarter’s last trading day and sitting at the highs, I suspect that the narrow overnight range bears any resemblance to what the morning has in store. The afternoon could be more subdued as many traders will likely exit early for evening Yom Kippur services.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2508.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2509.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2502.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2501.25 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour it looks like we’ve got nothing going on overnight I suspect that is totally irrelevant to the intraday I mean this is just a two-point narrow range head of the weekend sure a lot of Fridays look like this sure but this Friday happens to be the end of the quarter the sessions are the quarters last trading day so at least for the month on a monthly basis we wouldn’t expect much stagnation and we’re not expecting it today that seems pretty deceptive in other words that’s one reason another reason is that the market is basically sitting at its highs sitting at Tais Wednesday probed by you know if this were an expiration week we would call this passively bullish or bearish for having probe III multi-session high and closed under it couple of the bells and whistles are actually wouldn’t apply here we wouldn’t be able to apply them so but the point is buyers are weak handed but sellers are patient so not that the overnight range isn’t able to break higher but if it’s not gapping up it’s probably not going to sustain an intra date of trend of any sort yesterday was an inside the initially fulfilled selling pressure that was outstanding couldn’t get out of there so that’s another indication that I really can’t dismiss the potential for guys can’t dismiss the potential for probing whether or not even even if we going to be sustainable opening possible of course but not rejected coming out of the bias environment that it gets difficult to reject them regardless really fighting the cell signal or at least but the bouncer basically that broke out on Wednesday wasn’t confirmed on Thursday does not dismissed today the Euro originated from so it’s just a question I think of where this bounce Peaks here’s another gap-fill at 1:19 being attacked and then again which has produced its eventual third lower class was acquired by a confirmed Breakout but it has left outstanding unfinished business below at this Wednesday’s Gap Town so likely to be only temporary gold has a shot at having printed aloe the minimum of adjective was 12 8150 1280 5012 7950 and there it was tested overnight 12823 was tested overnight last night head of yesterday’s open it hasn’t actually been rejected usually if that’s going to be a fresh loaf of the trend and extended friend is going to be afraid it’s going to be a sustainable especially when it disappears intraday and other words when it doesn’t even show up usually they will have recovered quite a bit of a bit yesterday waiting for 1660 1660 isn’t tested today then at least 1650 becomes likely but that is a good for Wednesday Thursday objective congestion maybe even close above Thursday is low or perhaps to hold the retest so keep that in mind this is not at all that is the shaped don’t need a little bit of time actually 37308 good luck with that for a while all of them all of them dad to 293 alright I got any questions anything else to look at anything else to expand on let me know I’ll be back in the truck before the open or if there’s any relevant price action don’t forget we’ve got a Saturday review tomorrow good luck today.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2512.25 | 2509.75 |
| …would target | 2518.50 | 2516.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2503.75 | 2501.25 |
| …would target | 2498.50 | 2496.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s buyers didn’t need to be weak-handed. The prior session had probed new highs, and overnight action had neutralized “unfinished business below.” And it was neutralized by a break lower that originated too late to be credible for extending down. There was no attraction above, yet Thursday was biased upward, trending up intraday.
Inside days that are biased upward are often the product of weak-handed sponsorship. Their resolution is often to reverse down, having expended buying pressure the prior day without gaining traction for the effort. Avoiding a resolution down depends essentially on attracting reinforcements, which should be obvious by gapping up Thursday.
Resolving down is likelier, for the same reason that rallying Thursday was unlikely — because Wednesday’s new highs were reversed to close under prior highs. We’ll still give a gap up a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, but trending down is likely if not gapping up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having fulfilled its objective to test 1.1745 on Tuesday, extending the decline Wednesday morning to attack the next lower objective at 1.1760 was reversed to close higher on the day. That extended slightly into Thursday’s open, which ranged narrowly through the day up to 1.1850. .
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight fulfilled potential to test 1280.50. The probe under Wednesday’s lows was recovered by Thursday’s open. Ranging sideways all day doesn’t equate to stability, and another intraday fresh low is likely so long as 1298.50 isn’t recovered.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight touched the prior low at 16.70 and bounced ahead of Thursday’s open. The reaction didn’t become a recovery that would otherwise hold 17.00, still likely to test at least 16.60.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Finally testing 153-14 Wednesday trended down intraday to avoid forming a bottom. Extending down overnight gapped down to test fresh lows Thursday attacking 152-00. A second consecutive lower close from the multi-session range at 154-30 requires an eventual third lower close. In this pattern, immediately fulfilling the lower requirement would be bearish, where bouncing first would allow a bottom to begin forming.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Surging before Thursday’s open gapped up above prior sessions’ highs to 52.65 resistance. Resistance triggered a reversal down under prior sessions’ lows to test 51.25. The outside day left unfinished business above at Thursday’s opening gap. Testing it before extending down to 51.65 would be bearish.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a 9-cent premium to Oct]… Greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness didn’t prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. But that was after having gapped down from Wednesday’s close at 3.07 resistance. And the knee-jerk up snapped back down to fill the gap from Tuesday’s 3.01 close. Now a bottom can form by closing above 3.08, targeting 3.17 and higher.