S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2511.25 | 2508.75 |
| …would target | 2516.75 | 2514.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2500.75 | 2498.25 |
| …would target | 2493.00 | 2492.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday was the third consecutive session that rejected initial optimism. Consecutive initial optimism alone is noteworthy. Rejecting each is more so, especially rejecting each in the same way — by breaking back under the bias signal just several minutes too late to invalidate it.
Initially, this time was a little different. Wednesday’s 12-point reversal was the most substantial. It also left no “unfinished business above.” And the news triggering it wasn’t a surprise, but details of the pre-scheduled afternoon event (Trump’s tax reform reveal).
One more ultimate difference Wednesday was its intraday recovery to fresh highs. The prior two reversals had to wait 1-2 sessions for their recoveries. Leaking the afternoon’s details accelerated its reaction into the morning. But the afternoon’s surge then expended a lot of optimism to greet the actual news at 2509.25 session highs.
Meanwhile, Wednesday left “unfinished business below.” The afternoon’s surge originated during a no-bias environment. Its 2501.00 bias-up signal should be retraced, if not also its 1:20 2499.00 print. The close was under the open’s high, and under prior highs, so gapping down Thursday wouldn’t require filling the gap back to Wednesday’s close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday had fulfilled the decline’s requirement to completely retrace the last upleg from 1.1845. Wednesday extended the decline anyway, coming attacking its 1.1760 next lower target.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Tuesday off of 1298.50 “lower prior highs” was followed naturally Wednesday by gapping down through 1293.50 prior lows and probing lower to attack 1285.00. Attractions down to 1280.00 are in-play so long as Thursday doesn’t close positive.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight extended down Wednesday morning to attack prior lows, next targeting the 16.50 area.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeatedly holding 154-30 resistance finally reacted down Tuesday night, and aggressively. Gapping down to the 153-14 prior low probed ranged choppily intraday at or under last week’s low, needing to hold for the retest for a bottom to form.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
API and EIA weren’t greeted from the position of strength of a confirmed breakout. But reactions to the news items didn’t extend down, suggesting that Monday’s breakout intends to try extending again even without confirmation.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday created a gap back down to Tuesday’s close that will want to be retested. Trending up so early to already test the 2.98 bounce limit suggests its test is sponsored by weak hands. Thursday’s EIA is not being greeted from a position of strength, so a knee-jerk reaction up would have to close aboev 3.02 to be credible for extending higher.
Mid-day Update… No third bite.
Gap filled, probed… held?
This morning’s slide back under the 2499.50 bias-up signal extended to 2493.00. Its probe into negative territory under 2495.50 was recovered through the bias environment exit. The noon hour barely avoided turning negative again.
And now the bias afternoon environment is being greeted back up at 2499.50. Its retest would have been required had this morning triggered no-bias before probing under it. Retesting it anyway isn’t predictive, but reversing down again from its retest would be bearish.
So, back under 2497.50 would get one opportunity to resume the decline. Extending above 2501.50 as the bias environment begins lapsing would suggest no other dip is coming. Greeting Trump’s 3:20 tax reform speech from beyond either would be likely to extend in that direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Brexit talks resume before Thursday’s open. The session’s calendar is busy in its own right, especially with four pre-open reports being released simultaneously. Yet despite the quantity and two of them being high-profile, none has a reliable track record for influencing price action. The post-open Fed speaker may have more impact, except that her posture is well-known.
Eric Rosengren Speaks
Wed 7:00 PM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET