S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2503.50 | 2501.00 |
| …would target | 2509.50 | 2507.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2496.00 | 2493.50 |
| …would target | 2490.50 | 2488.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Early birds get worms again.
Opening rally is reversed.
The third time’s a charm, when you’re monitoring for it. That’s the case with this morning’s third consecutive rejection of initial optimism. It’s already responsible for a 9-point slide.
The overnight rally from 2495.50 had reacted down from touching yesterday’s 2501.25 pre-open.
Resuming the rally greeted the open at 2503.50, instantly fulfilling the prior two sessions’ “unfinished business above.” Extending higher to 2505.00 also tested this morning’s 2504.00 bias-up target.
But the bias-up target had yet to be triggered. Which it wasn’t. Reacting down overlapped the 2499.50 bias-up signal at both 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. And like the two prior sessions, price action within the next 3 minutes was breaking under the bias signal that had otherwise held through 10:30.
The reversal has touched 2496.00. Attacking yesterday’s close to within 2-3 ticks is now reacting up. Nothing requires actually filling the gap, but oversold RSIs at 2496.00 undermine the reaction’s sponsorship.
Recall that Monday and Tuesday’s rejected optimism each had left outstanding “unfinished business above.” Not today. Even if bias-up had triggered, its target was already met. And the unfinished business above was already neutralized. Recovering like the prior two sessions is much less assured.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Attractions above.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pre-open breakout originated too late to be credible for extending higher intraday. We knew that before the open. We didn’t know how soon after the open the breakout would fail. It wasn’t very soon, as the 2498.00 bias-up signal had time to trigger. The breakout still failed by sliding to 2492.50. But it originated just minutes too late to invalidate the bias-up. The balance of the session ranged sideways, with 2498.00 holding two tests as resistance. A late 6-point dip was recovered just enough to avoid closing under 2495.50. The morning’s 2503.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Fluctuating narrowly around 2495.50 eventually began recovering. Europe’s opens were greeted by the completed retracement of Tuesday’s late 6-point dip from 2499.00. The recovery soon blipped-up to touch Tuesday’s 2501.25 opening peak. Its reaction down to 2497.00 is now trying to recover above this morning’s 2499.50b bias-up signal.
If, then…
Last night’s reaction down from only touching yesterday’s morning’s 2501.25 high seems obligatory. But it’s only overnight. If the obligatory touch’s property of being temporary will apply to intraday action, then the opening 15 minutes of volatility must probe fresh highs. Not probing fresh highs through the open would be unlikely to trend higher intraday. So, probing fresh highs through the open may be the only way to fulfill “unfinished business above” at 2503.00 and 2503.50, essentially triggering bias-up. Otherwise, yesterday’s late dip will likely resume, and probably also the morning’s dip, potentially to fresh lows for the week… Meanwhile, note that two consecutive morning bias signals have been derailed, so be watchful for a third occurrence — whether or not done timely.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2497.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2499.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2502.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her I’m not quite sure what we’ve got here in the overnight pattern remember that yesterday had sore to repeat it was Monday did and that is whatever the open where to buy acid triggered was not initially rejected tried to went out of bounds to do so but ultimately didn’t yesterday it was this very late in the game break higher from the overnight member we knew because of how late the ongoing overnight consolidation at finally tried breaking hire that it was pretty much doomed to failure so we’re anticipating something while you’re at some point but the you don’t anticipate it I just prepare for the buy a signal itself which triggered by step triggered but just a minute or two too late then it would have been timely to reject the bias up the bicep signal was never the less probed by quite a bit that’s 2498 ultimately tested couple times as resistance to the afternoon until the late fee for whether or not it would settle or close at is the cash that should have ever below 2495 50 below would have been indicative of price action rolling over it closed at 9550 if that’s going to be looking for the reaction to recover even if only temporarily but this is over night so if this overnight obligatory high is going to be influential Post open I actually has to be influential in other words the open opening 15 minutes needs to reflect that the obligatory high is being probed so pretty much the opening 15 minutes of 25 over 125 we will give every benefit of the doubt to a couple things to 2499 50 signal which are two and four ticks under 2500 32504 range likely to be tested if the open is recovering 2525 set up in here that can be considered a stop 2498 9750 I would consider using as a stop or pull back limit if wanting to confirm considering whether to get long here anywhere in here for that ride potentially up to 25 125 and time to pray through it in time to put into play 25043 – 2503 2504 it just starts to get this as we get closer to the open it starts to get that much more difficult to trigger bias up whether or not by actually touched Post open 9950 Post open to hold and put in the playoffs 150 isn’t recovered through the what if it doesn’t hold as support before the open to be really difficult to get back up to Fresh eyes through the open and that pretty much points down the alternative to exploiting this obligatory obligatory touch High the alternative is likely to react down and reacting down consequences like probably resuming yesterday at not just laid dip which means testing yesterday’s morning low which probably because I was already retested overnight after trying to chip away at its resistance intraday Monday probably means probing Monday’s low reports president speak at 3:20 and that is tax reform having broken his support which was to the entirety of it and the actual doesn’t have to stop isn’t giving any indication the next lower objective the next lower objective as if you were before this rally in August 1760 1760 other than resolution but it’s running out of opportunities intraday or overnight and finally the sea witch silver doesn’t really have any objective or requirements that is but it is breaking support or at least still overlapping support there’s an obligatory low down here 665 and besides there are here gold has been going to get away with that a little bit of what do we know about multi-session ranged lower prioritize that are influential one day if they’re broken than the lower end of that range is likely to be probed not just touched but probe 212 91 becomes the next objective. I’m trying to put an objective probing Under 12 anyone and that’s what’s going on overnight there’s a warning shot across the bow if that is not dispensed with very quickly at the open if that’s not absorbing reversed up then it will be because this is giving away down to its own lower prioritize 1281 1280 50 area Long Pond never really credible never really likely to break higher closing above it I would have given her the benefit of the doubt but still want to see a more defined test of this one 5314 Lowe which we’re getting overnight so there’s an opportunity for completing a bottom and it was before or without getting too much buying done up here so I just have to create some congestion sort of an anchor not a great anchor reliable for attracting price higher but not a lot of distribution so that is to try and collect the low but some sort of overlapping down here and then actually actually holding that would be the bottom not that I’ve been expecting but wanted to see prior to giving a bicycle any better for the doubt so as far as that goes the earliest Buy Signal that can be triggered today would be back but basically this inflection point back basically back of a F-150 Ford 06 so closing today or tomorrow like we are tomorrow basically because we want to see a little bit of time spent down here having tested it so briefly previously not the strength that it would be otherwise reactions and the extension down to 24 295 – 98 .
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2502.00 | 2499.50 |
| …would target | 2506.50 | 2504.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2492.50 | 2490.00 |
| …would target | 2486.50 | 2484.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s pre-open breakout originated too late to be credible for extending higher intraday. But it did hold up high enough and for long enough to trigger the 2498.00 bias-up signal.
Also too late was the bias-up signal’s rejection. Crossing back under 2498.00 a couple of minutes after 10:30 was a couple of minutes too late to invalidate what had been signaled cleanly at 10:15.
Tuesday morning’s 2503.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” It can be fulfilled simultaneously with the offsetting test of Monday morning’s 2503.00 bias-up signal that was also left outstanding.
That’s two consecutive morning bias signals that were derailed. Patterns often come in threes, so we’ll be extra vigilant to this setup Wednesday. We’ll also see whether Tuesday’s late probe under 2495.50 cleaned out selling pressure, or attracted more.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.