S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 15, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The econ calendar is busy for an expiration day, let alone Quad-witch. And no matter how high-profile, the pre-open reports aren’t reliable for triggering a price reaction. But any noticeable reaction should be duplicated by the post-open Consumer Sentiment — if not also exacerbated.
Quadruple Witching
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2498.25 | 2496.00 |
| …would target | 2503.25 | 2501.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2492.00 | 2489.75 |
| …would target | 2485.75 | 2483.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Kim Jong!
Missile threat stirs things up.
The narrow overnight range was supported at 2491.50. It wasn’t hinting at anything happening this morning — not organically. For that, we needed rumors that N. Korea is readying another missile launch. A pre-open plunge extended down to 2487.50.
Bouncing to 2492.00 tested the overnight range’s “higher prior lows.” Its reaction down to 2489.00 was the first post-open test of the pullback range that I described during the pre-open Market Tour. That has been recovered to fresh post-open highs at 2494.25.
That’s also the upper-end of last night’s ranging. So, it’s natural resistance. Not that it can’t be recovered, too, but it’s more difficult. The bias-down signal wasn’t tested post-open, so no offsetting test of its 2496.00 bias-up signal is required. Still, recovering anyway should test the 2500.00-2501.00 area.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Narrower still. Deceptively?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted attacking Tuesday’s lows to within 1 point. Post-open action worked its way back up throughout the day, with a last-minute attack on Tuesday’s high to within 1 tick. That was against the background of two consecutive no-bias signals.
Overnight action’s new info…
Similar to Tuesday night, Wednesday night’s Globex session is contained entirely within Wednesday’s intraday range. But last night’s range reflects no sponsorship. It is contained within the upper 61.8% of yesterday’s range, and not threatening either end. Immediately extending Tuesday night’s dip at Wednesday’s open would have been credible for resuming its overnight effort. But this morning’s open is not being greeted by an overnight effort to extend, so any post-open trending is new sponsorship.
If, then…
Greeting Tuesday’s open at Tuesday’s low actually began by ending Tuesday at its high. A high that had fulfilling “unfinished business above.” Overnight sellers weren’t able to break the intraday range, and Wednesday’s sellers were non-existent. Developing this setup at a trend high doesn’t make it any abler to avoid a detour down, only likelier to recover from one. The timing formed a passively bullish WedEX for Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Monday’s confirmed breakout has yet to be fulfilled by at least one more higher close, which Wednesday’s close within Tuesday’s confirmation range doesn’t fulfill.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2494.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2496.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour and not a lot going on let’s going on last night then was going on Wednesday night which amounted to nothing intraday not sure that that that we should look at this as or anticipate a dry cleaners morning because of that but here’s the issue is that hears Tuesday’s intraday range and actually went all the way up to satisfy its buying pressure 2494 9550 at the close and the overnight action was just a effort to break lower not really an effort so much as it didn’t Trend up it was attracted back down some optimism in here not necessarily at testing Tuesday afternoons low which was overlapped twice but the intraday low wasn’t even attacked and that’s before yesterday’s action trended backup intraday if that’s even trending its first of all not really an absolute range of any degree of consequence and secondly it’s an inside day contained within within Wednesday’s range more narrowly much more narrowly I’ll try within Tuesday’s range two consecutive no bias signals so no real trending actually just noise that gravitated back to the high so what do we have today we’ve got even narrower overnight trending which isn’t without its identifying characteristics for instance here’s yesterday’s range from low basically too high so overnight action has developed exclusively or been contained within yesterday’s upper 61.8% it’s not arbitrary probably but it’s also not sponsorship that’s the point is there is no sponsorship this is just corrective stuff correcting an inside day isn’t very predictive any more predictive than inside overnight can be so take that with a grain of salt but the point is there’s no new sponsorship here if sellers were to try to take control at the open they’d be an Uncharted Territory versus the most recent action they would be new sponsorship they would be new sponsorship if they try to take control of the open by breaking under the overnight low they run into difficulty and yesterday’s low and Tuesdays and be difficult to get under 88-89 if sellers even try if they haven’t yet made some significant move before the open so if there is a probably a by will look at the timing of course Tuesday qualify as that will filament of a confirmed breakout confer breakout meeting that at least an eventual third are close is coming can’t go out by the closing within the range but also not that it matters until tomorrow afternoon and Monday morning we’ve got passively bullet X but we are hovering at the highs because of the past we both will be by so today when we so suggest there’s one more day down or at least one more lower loan on a Cellular close but something that gets closer to 1 1845 gold traded lower yesterday then on Tuesday and that’s the overnight as well so fighting it even if this were a hundred percent of sure to fill in the Gap back to 1350 51 just the optimism that keeps delaying getting the slide out of the way does suggest that this is some kind of Heaven perhaps from a contrarian perspective little too optimistic so topping may be underway silver sort of as well and it keeps fighting 1770 just a natural pull back to 1770 let alone 1760 that wouldn’t make a close above 1790 bullish keeps fighting that a lot of optimism here on a pullback that’s not usually bullets doesn’t prevent recovering initially it just says here’s the context of that recovery Justin up leg with a distributor the bond extended it slide past its minimum objective to its potential and now lower yesterday lower than so need York reaction down a bit absorb closing slightly negative without even touching 302 would actually be bearish too much optimism and meanwhile as you can see from the character of the pattern knee jerk reaction down there’s an even required as we tracked this bigger Longer term bottoming alright so any questions please go ahead and post them in the chart room and I’ll see you there before they open did luck today.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2498.50 | 2496.00 |
| …would target | 2503.50 | 2501.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2490.75 | 2488.25 |
| …would target | 2485.75 | 2483.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.