S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Two consecutive no-bias signals almost says it all. Wednesday’s inside day was uneventful, hovering at Tuesday’s highs. Monday’s confirmed breakout has yet to be fulfilled by at least one more higher close. Wednesday’s last-minute surge doesn’t suggest strong-handed buyers are suddenly making their move. Neither factor protects against an interim pullback, as I describe in today’s video.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday repeated Tuesday’s test of 1.1955-1.1970 support, with less success at holding it or recovering from it. Trending down into the afternoon tested 1.1875, likely to test 1.1855 before the next credible recovery attempt.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight triggered a gap up at Wednesday’s open, which was then reversed more deeply to fresh lows at 1324.50. Breaking again under the 1337.50 sell signal is now more likely to extend down to 1318.50 before a retest of recent highs would be credible, or at least credible for extending higher.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip to wasn’t deep enough for its recovery to 17.90 to launch a new rally leg. Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s low barely avoided 17.70 before bouncing back up to 17.90, still vulnerable to a deeper dip.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
After extending Monday’s pullback under 156-00 to attack 155-04 Tuesday, Wednesday slid deeper to retrace the two-week old prior low under 155-00. Back above 155-20 would trigger a bounce targeting 157-10.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already firming into Wednesday’s open was extended higher intraday to attack last week’s highs to within a nickel, targeting a new high close as required by its confirmed breakout highs, so long as 47.95 now holds as support.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday and extending through Tuesday’s 3.04 high helped to confirm that shorts were trapped by the Friday-Monday break under 2.95. Filling the gap back to the week-old 3.06 close could provide near-term resistance, so pullbacks should hold 3.02 if the recovery is intact.
Mid-day Update… Specks.
Narrow intraday range.
Gapping down to attack yesterday’s low was the most relevant feature to today’s range. The test held, although it wasn’t really a test. Anyway, the post-open bounce has been testing yesterday’s highs. Not the overnight highs, but yesterday’s slightly lower intraday high.
It’s not a very wide range, and it’s not very interesting price action. In fact, it’s now two consecutive no-bias signals on an “inside day.” Trending before the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing would be suspicious.
Trending after the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing would be credible for extending. Dipping under 2492.00 could test or attack 2488.00 and then collapse into the close. Or not collapse — nothing is required, which is the difficulty of a no-bias inside day.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s BOE policy statement can be influential. But the CPI report is more reliable for triggering some response. No post-open reports have any reliable influence.
BOE monetary policy
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:00 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2497.00 | 2494.50 |
| …would target | 2502.50 | 2500.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2490.50 | 2488.00 |
| …would target | 2484.25 | 2481.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.