S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Weekend weather wasn’t a game-changer for the ongoing topping pattern. Monday’s surprising relief rally did position the market to for a bigger leg up if reinforcements were to arrive Tuesday. Otherwise, either an immediate pullback is needed to refuel buyers. Extending higher too quickly would find buyers extended and buying pressure expended.
Extending higher would also fulfill Monday afternoon’s “unfinished business above” at its 2490.00 bias-up target. The final hour touched a sell signal at 2484.00 without triggering it. Monday morning was the first actual uptrending since the prior Tuesday afternoon’s reaction up from the morning’s plunge.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday exploited Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” that had gapped up, spent the entire session in positive territory, and probed Thursday’s high without also closing above it. Holding the 1.1970 buy signal would make any initial strength Tuesday likely to retest the high. Closing under 1.1955 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap down tested and probed under the 1337.50 sell signal whose previous test had launch fresh highs. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would make a reversal down credible, but meanwhile a retest of Friday’s 1351.00 close is likelier first.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s failure to confirm Thursday’s breakout left the rally vulnerable to Sunday night’s reaction down that tested the 17.90 sell signal as support. It held, and now has left outstanding a gap back up to Friday’s 18.10 close that will at least want to be filled.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s premature bounce to fresh highs out of Wednesday’s brief pullback had not extended higher Friday. Monday’s gap down to Thursday’s open picked up the baton and extended relentlessly to fulfill its objective under 156-00. It can extend down to 155-16 to compensate for the delay. A corrective bounce meanwhile could fill the gap back up to Friday’s 157-10 close.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Just a little more room under Friday’s low was possible while maintaining Friday’s dip to 48.00 and 47.25 as only temporary. Touching 47.00 triggered a bounce back up to 48.00, whose recovery would signal that last week’s confirmed breakout’s eventual third higher close was in-play.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday and trending higher intraday tested the 2.95 sell signal that had triggered Friday. Which held, creating an “inside day,” and leaving open the 2.84 objective, now further fueled by filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2.89 close below.
Mid-day Update… Straightened up.
Shallow morning pullback recovers to resume the rally.
The corrective dip from 2482.00 was shallower than it was brief. Its potential to 2477.50 was barely attacked to within 5 ticks. A narrow range there finally resolved up as the bias environment began lapsing.
Extending higher through the noon hour touched 2487.00. This afternoon’s 2484.75 bias-up signal triggered, putting into play its 2490.00 bias-up target. There has yet to be a fresh high.
Let’s clarify what today’s test of July’s “pivotal high” means, and what it doesn’t mean. As with any pivotal high test, the actual high is now all but assured to be tested, too. That’s 2486.00 basis Dec and 2488.00 basis Sep, and both have been pierced by 3 ticks. It’s also almost 2491.00 basis S&P Cash (SPX) which is still 1 point away.
I first addressed the pivotal high’s attack on the last rally leg. Testing it and entrenching the uptrend then would have made the next upleg likely to probe significantly higher. Last Tuesday’s drop created a new downleg. Its distribution has changed the reliability of a new high having substantial consequences. It’s not ruled out, but it’s not as likely.
Meanwhile,remember that today’s upleg is NOT a session-long rally. Regardless of how it has behaved so far, or how it might still behave, its setup wasn’t optimal. Afternoon stagnation or even reversal down is still possible.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 12, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs Openings report usually comes the week following Payrolls, but the holiday delayed it. It’s still the day’s only item likely to influence price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2487.25 | 2484.75 |
| …would target | 2492.25 | 2490.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2479.75 | 2477.50 |
| …would target | 2474.75 | 2472.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.