S&P
Mid-day Update… An anxious calm.
Still stuck in negative territory.
[PROGRAMMING NOTE #1: I haven’t heard of a single issue with Adobe’s chaRTroom update. Please let me know otherwise.]
[PROGRAMMING NOTE #2: There’s a chance of my being absent Monday. I’ll know for certain before tomorrow’s Saturday Review.]
The open didn’t trend down. It’s initial spike down to 2456.75 was recovered entirely back up to the 2459.25 open, which is also this morning’s bias-down signal. Holding its test had put into play an offsetting test of its 2466.00 bias-up signal, which was attacked to within 1 point at 2465.00.
Coming within 1 tick of coming within 3 ticks of the objective usually wouldn’t neutralize it. More so, overbought RSIs there require its eventual retest. This afternoon’s no-bias environment would be a good opportunity to accomplish that.
But remember than not trending down in the morning would be likely then only to tread water while being vulnerable to an afternoon collapse. That “unfinished business above” won’t be a deal killer if the bias environment is exited under a relevant level — like under 2459.25 — which could unleash the vulnerability to collapsing into the weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 11, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled as the new week begins. In fact, the entire week’s calendar is light, with the remaining sessions having only one relevant item per day.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2467.00 | 2464.50 |
| …would target | 2471.75 | 2469.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2459.75 | 2457.50 |
| …would target | 2454.00 | 2451.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Detouring from downside.
Open’s dip holds.
The opening print was also this morning’s 2459.25 bias-down signal. It was probed immediately down to 2456.75. And then recovered through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Fluctuating around 2459.25 resolved up through the top of the hour. Enough of that was maintained for long enough to avoid triggering bias-down.
Having held a test of the 2459.25 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2466.00 bias-up signal
is in-play. Invalidating the no-bias environment can now be done only by exiting it under its 2453.50 bias-down target. Any lesser selling pressure would maintain the higher objective.
So, this morning’s downside risk is essentially gone. Fluctuating sideways and then collapsing this afternoon is still possible. There’s a narrow path higher, which all but requires exiting the noon hour above this morning’s 2466.00 bias-up signal. Any lesser buying pressure would remain vulnerable to reversing back down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Mind the gaaaaaap.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
IT SEEMS THAT ADOBE ALREADY PUSHED ITS UPDATE. THE ADD-ON LOADS VERY SIMPLY IN ONE CLICK, BUT PLEASE CONTACT ME IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY DIFFICULTY
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s post-close plunge wasn’t actually rejected. And it was only eventually retraced. And it was retraced too late for Thursday’s gap up to attract reinforcements. A post-open drop stopped optimistically short of testing overnight lows, so a mid-morning bounce was retraced entirely back down to the morning’s low. Which was still optimistically short of a relevant level. But distance from the plunge hadn’t softened its shock to the system, at least not enough to allow trending through the afternoon.
Overnight action’s new info…
While the afternoon was unable to trend, it did firm. Post-close action surged, as if a short-squeeze. But it greeted the Globex open back up at the “pivotal downtrending resistance.” And Globex has only trended down from there. Yesterday’s 2458.00 lows were soon tested and provided support. It was being retested again at Europe’s opens and has since probed lower twice. Now Wednesday’s 2455.75 plunge low is being retested.
If, then…
[I’m still seeing slower relative volume in the Dec ES contract than is normal during rollover. But I’m rolling coverage forward to Dec today anyway. It’s trading at a 6-7 tick discount from Sep]… Think of the space just under yesterday’s ~2458.00 lows as quicksand. Currently indicated to gap down there, the opening setup would have little time to reverse back up before being swallowed. Perhaps more like a sinkhole, the effect could be much more sudden. The Friday Factors of impending illiquidity may leverage the air pocket of Tuesday afternoon’s bounce to quickly revisit that afternoon’s ~2444.00 low. And there’s no bullish reason to revisit it, so any lower through a relevant window could become even more aggressive into the weekend. Otherwise, quickly reversing the open’s back up before being swallowed wouldn’t marginalize sellers until recovering positive territory. So, treading water all morning in slightly negative territory would remain vulnerable to an afternoon collapse.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2462.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2459.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2456.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Friday at Sanford Friday’s Morning Market areas are going to see in just a few minutes this may be a very impressive session if sellers can get anything going at all here there is a very big risk of going to get a lot going and we’re not talking about just a little blip down we’re not talking about just testing prior Lowe’s or any kind of Unfinished Business it certainly that’s all possible but there’s a very real path down in a very substantial way that we would know where the high degree of certainty actually or at least reliability let’s say very quickly at the open if it’s coming and even if it isn’t very obvious at the open and another words with the open avoids already getting involved in something very distributive and very aggressive the balance of the morning may simply tread water hold barely in negative territory but not Rally and keep alive the vulnerability to a collapse in the afternoon what’s enhancing that is Friday factors the impending two days of illiquidity has a different spin on things we use that to Advantage yesterday in knowing sort of I guess but in knowing that yesterday when yesterday depth let’s get rid of its back out the other night spoiler alert we turned it down all right which it stopped optimistically short under the overnight Tuesday afternoon play first of all yesterday’s balance remember this little right here where my cursor is this little balance is not even the balance so much as a return to the afternoons high this probe above it that extended that bounce to the shorts sorry I threw the position scoring window is have a short squeeze right back up to resistance of downtrending pivotal resistance and since then really I mean there’s a little blip up it since then price action is just trended down pretty quickly right back down to or to attack Thursday’s Lowe’s that didn’t get anywhere in here just a little bit further we get into Europe’s opens your abs opens were greeted probing lower and finally extended back down overnight 2 for the first time to ask Wednesday’s plunge low Wednesday nights plunge low so it’s one of the other one is and probably at that point and if something gets going here through the morning we could cover some significant ground and get there pretty quickly as far as the upside if in fact the opening weakness and for this opening week nishil pre-open overnight weakness even persists into the open if we’re not already rally and we don’t have any high-profile economic reports coming but if somehow price Rally’s then the key will be in weather that rally gets out into positive territory right now we’re basically down here at 5750 get out and positive territory get out of this downturn in pivotal resistance and is really a lot of upside from that or at least the assured part of the outside to get back to Friday’s Gap or its highs even but again we could spend the morning just treading water in slightly negative territory and still be vulnerable to an afternoon collapse maybe more so can I have a cell signal today precious metal Silver is extending hires I said overnight also from testing its Roman support 1790 from a multi-session range yesterday was a break out today is setting up to be it’s confirmation precious metals are targeting the roof all right the Long Barn had a pullback have a very shallow fullback it actually targeted a little deeper which would have been more constructive before recovering but anyway I can’t step in front of that can’t step in front of .