S&P
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2468.25 | 2466.00 |
| …would target | 2474.00 | 2472.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2461.25 | 2459.25 |
| …would target | 2455.75 | 2453.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
You received instructions for updating the Adobe add-on. I’ll provide the link again after Friday’s close, and before the Saturday Review…
[I’m rolling coverage forward to Dec which trades at a 6-7 tick discount from Sep] Wednesday’s post-close plunge wasn’t actually rejected. And it was only eventually retraced. The initial shock to the system and the late rally combined to inhibit the open’s gap up from extending.
The open’s gap u reacted down to retrace essentially all of the overnight recovery, if not the actual overnight low. Another bounce also failed. Firming through the afternoon bias environment wasn’t reversed down, not for lack of trying. Firming again probed fresh afternoon highs after the futures close, too late to gain traction for its effort.
Once again, gapping up above prior highs is required to launch a credible rally Friday morning. Already having rejected two consecutive too shallow gaps up, gapping up again Friday is likely to extend higher. So, not gapping up Friday is likely to trend back down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Resolving up through Thursday’s ECB events helped to confirm that Friday’s reaction down did hold its corrective limits, so that a new upleg is now underway.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The holiday weekend’s attack on 1350.00 was likely to be retested, which the reaction to Thursday’s ECB events accomplished up to 1355.50. Closing back under Sunday night’s 1339.50 open or its 1337.50 low would signal the trend reversing back down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs testing 18.20 Thursday morning fulfilled any requirement for retesting the week’s earlier overnight highs. Having originated from a dip to 17.90 support, a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a very strong breakout.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s break under 157-24 didn’t extend any deeper to its pullback objective under 156-00 before recovering the sell signal and probing new recovery highs attacking 158-00. Another dip under 157-24 (if not also under 157-16) would be bearish, but the trend otherwise remains up.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s delayed EIA report didn’t trigger much volatility, as Tuesday’s confirmed breakout was maintained, still having room for a pullback down to 48.00 or even to “lower prior highs” at 47.25 without targeting new lows.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.02 buy signal continued being tested both into and out of Thursday’s EIA report. It didn’t trigger, as Thursday dipped to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close and neutralize its attraction below.
New chaRTroom instructions
Our chaRTroom host is Adobe, and they’re rolling out an update after Friday’s close. This means you’ll need it for the Saturday Review. That will be a good opportunity outside of trading hoursto confirm it’s installed properly.
AFTER FRIDAY’S CLOSE Download the update here AFTER FRIDAY’S CLOSE .
I repeat — DON’T update until AFTER Friday’s close. Why not? Because it’s required of me, too, as the presenter. I’ll re-send this link after Friday’s close and on Saturday morning.
This also means the chaRTroom URL will change. That will also be in the emails. Please contact me if you experience any difficulty.
Mid-day Update… The market IS the other shoe.
Bouncing back down to session lows.
This morning’s 9-point drop to 2460.00 avoided both triggering bias-down and rejecting it. Its noN-bias environment’s sharp 7-point was impressive, but also retraced entirely. The noon hour’s retest of the morning’s low attacked this afternoon’s 2459.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. And also failed to trigger.
But this is a no-bias environment. If tested, 2459.25 should define the window’s lower-end. But not after the bias environment begins lapsing, or even comes within view. Hovering near the lows under 2464.00 would keep selling pressure well-positioned to easily unload into the close. No news would be needed — just the overnight and morning recovery attempts being abandoned.
Otherwise, back above 2466.00 would start to signal that the overnight and post-open drops had been absorbed. A retest of last Friday’s range above would be targeted. Trading out the session within its current range isn’t likely.