S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still digging.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 2446.00 and its immediate surge to 2453.50 were retraced entirely through the morning bias environment. Filling the gap back down to Thursday’s 2441.00 close was able to hold. At least for the purpose of injecting a 61.8% retracement of the post-open drop. And having corrected it, the balance of the session fell back to the morning’s low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Actually, Friday’s last dip attacked the morning’s low. Sunday night’s open sliced through it, touching what had been Thursday’s 2437.50 cash session close. Consolidating narrowly under Friday’s lows was jarred loose at Europe’s opens, which triggered a smaller spike down to 2436.25. That didn’t extend, and was soon retraced. Then reversed into positive territory up to 2444.50.
If, then…
Testing 2438.00 support had become likely after Wednesday’s pullback failed to recover. So, it was tested Thursday down to 2434.50. The pullback had potential for extending to 2429.00 if Friday did not gap up sufficiently, which it did not. Not gapping up sufficiently this morning maintains that potential for extending the pullback down to 2429.00 — and the open is currently indicated flat-to-lower. A recovery needs to become very obvious very soon if it will avoid a deeper pullback. Not gapping up could still firm or bounce through the morning without yet reversing back down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2444.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2439.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2438.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market to her a little bit of a surge here which interesting because 2443 is Friday’s cash session close Friday’s cash session closed equates to 2443 that is after Friday afternoons last down leg last dip back down to the mornings low where’s a Futures close at 4215 but cash is some clothes acquitted 243 and remember it was it was a pretty extended shallow but thoughtful or I may be trudging is a better word recovery a 61.8% recovery of the mornings drop and that morning drop was not unpredictable at all it wasn’t necessarily going to happen in the morning but it was going to happen because Friday is open didn’t Gap up sufficiently at least didn’t extend its Gap up to be sufficient and extending higher extended higher too late to be maintained and extended higher to neutralize attraction above and that was the gap the Gap back to Tuesday’s close so Friday is open gapped up it didn’t extend above Friday’s High’s Thursday’s hi sorry filled the Gap neutralized that attraction in other words got on with the rejection and never turned negative never turned negative and which is interesting because won’t fill the gap on the reaction down from the Gap back to Thursdays 2441 closed Thursday’s session clothes was 3750 + 3750 didn’t require being tested but it was pretty shallow man certainly kept alive the bearish scenario because Friday is reaction down stop optimistically short another word from a contrarian perspective potentially nourish and retraced its own attraction so to speak the 6180 retracement hand responded to it so 3750 is a traction or what is really another test of 38 remained alive remains alive hand because 38 when it was tested Thursday wasn’t able to produce a sustainable recovery it’s really intraday if 38 is riposte open it probably won’t hold maybe during the time that might be able to hide rarely enforced into positive territory but temporarily that fell back down to Fresh Lowe’s that’s your UPS opens right there breathe breathe and rejected as you can see so and the Odyssey will come back to last week doesn’t have to be tested to that degree but being an inverted Head and Shoulders once its objective is tested because very vulnerable to reversing back down to and through the head and shoulders pattern holding on they were down earlier but they’re not down now and not down so holding on suggesting upside remains intact gold will be rolling coverage forward blowing coverage forward at the clothes are at the day we spot today it’s not going to make a difference to the trending down targeting 281 basis set which is about $0.03 I think it’s raining in a $0.03 discount to October so to 8134 bases October would be the objective but nothing about this pattern says that that’s going to be avoided to make a difference .
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2448.25 | 2447.25 |
| …would target | 2454.25 | 2453.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2440.50 | 2439.75 |
| …would target | 2435.00 | 2434.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s 2447.75 bias-up signal defined the no-bias environment’s upper-end. Touching it held through the window lapsing. The ECB’s Draghi started speaking and shook price loose. A blip-up to 2449.50 stretched the rubber band to snap back down into the close. Dropping to 2441.50 actually went out testing 2443.00, avoiding any signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us this weekend for the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET. Your link will arrive by email in the morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday extended higher through the morning to test 1.1900. A bigger rally to fresh highs at 1.1915 and potentially 1.1970 is now likely underway, albeit still vulnerable to reversing back down to the recent lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A wild Friday morning first spiked up, then plunged to a fresh low under 1284.00, and spiked back up again to 1298.00. Extending higher Monday would be credible for retesting the high and higher. Otherwise, launching a downleg has little excuse for further delay.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another probe under 16.90 was triggered among Jackson Hole headlines. It originated from an early morning bounce above 17.05, and recovered back to it after testing 16.70. This gives the pattern an opportunity to rally if Monday were to extend higher, but without delay since 17.05 still isn’t recovered.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s initial dip held just under 156-00 before snapping back up to fresh highs at 156-24. Having failed to confirm Wednesday’s breakout, closing higher Friday would signal a much larger rally leg underway.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing Friday morning back up to the 47.95 sell signal still keeps alive the potential for resolving down, but also limits the time available to sellers for retaking control.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s failed bounce above 2.95 had warned already that another downleg was forming, especially having failed to exploit the otherwise bullish influence of the Guld of Mexico hurricane bearing down. Friday’s dip back down under 2.91 and lower puts into play 2.81 where a better bottom can still form..
Mid-day Update… Waiting for the other shoe.
Morning rally rejected.
Not yet extending the gap up during the opening 15 minutes wouldn’t prevent extending it anyway. It would only doom the extension to failure.
Which is what happened when gapping up to 2446.50 was only maintained, through 9:45, before surging to 2453.50. The bias environment lapsing at 11:30 was probing under the open’s print down to 2441.00.
Bouncing through the noon hour came within 1 tick of this afternoon’s 2447.75 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. It has room down to the 2441.50 bias-down signal. Or, hovering at or just under the bias-up signal could still break higher later.
ECB’s Mario Draghi speaks at 3:00. He’s a reliable catalyst for injecting volatility into the market. Greeting his remarks from back under 2443.00-2444.25 would be likely to extend down into the weekend. Otherwise, a similarly favorable reaction would be likely from above 2448.50.