S&P
Mid-day Update… By default.
Gap down held, but recovery holding back.
The late push to fresh overnight lows at the 2440.75 bias-down target had to prove itself, or else fail. It failed. Back above 2442.25 quickly signaled the drop lacked sponsorship. But trending higher through the morning never proved there was sponsorship for a recovery.
Chipping away at the 2446.00 bias-down signal’s resistance wasn’t actually probed until the bias environment had begun lapsing. But then only to attack 2448.00 into the noon hour. And RSIs returning to their upper-end was repeatedly stopping short of becoming overbought. Strong hands weren’t buyers.
Dipping during the noon hour tested this afternoon’s 2443.00 bias-down signal — both at 1:20 and at 1:30. Bias-down avoided triggering, but it also avoided holding. This is a noN-bias environment, which often clings to the bias signal before breaking it anyway. Regardless of its timing, a break to fresh lows testing 2438.00 is possible, unless the bias environment were exited in rally mode attacking 2446.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 24, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday is this week’s busiest on the econ calendar. But it barely has one report with any reliability for influencing price action, the post-open PMI Flash. Meanwhile, still another housing sector report is released.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)2454.25 | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2450.00 | 2448.75 |
| …would target | 2455.50 | 2454.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2446.25 | 2443.00 |
| …would target | 2439.25 | 2438.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hard sell.
Maximum selling greeted the open.
The overnight tests of this morning’s 2446.00 bias-down signal had given way to also test the 2440.75 bias-down target. The opening bar blipped down to 2438.75. And held.
Sellers were already suspicious. The late extension wasn’t any more reliable. Its likely resolution was to test 2446.00 as resistance. Which it did.
Reacting back down to 2441.00 helped to maintain the bias-down signal at 10:15. Another bounce also reacted down before 10:30 to avoid invalidating the 10:15 signal. This is a bias-down environment. Its target has been met, but its signal should define the window’s upper-end.
None of which is preventing yet another test of 2446.00 as resistance. This strength is almost a half-hour premature for reliably breaking higher. A recovery would be more credible upon coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing.
Of course, premature buying runs the risk of being weak-handed sponsorship. Not exiting the bias environment in rally mode would open the door wider to fresh lows at 2438.00. Otherwise, restrained optimism that hovers at or around 2446.00 could still fill the gap back up to yesterday’s 2451.25 close today.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… On the brink.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 6-point gap up to 2433.00 surged to quickly fulfill the minimum likely objective, which was to retest Friday morning’s 2439.50 high. The rally extended through the session — relentlessly and substantially, extending the open’s buy signal while holding every pullback limit’s test — up to 2454.00. A last-minute dip to 2450.50 held the 61.8% retracement from Wednesday’s 2474.00 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open quickly touched what is this morning’s 2454.50 bias-up signal’s resistance, and then began reversing down. First attacking what is this morning’s 2446.00 bias-down signal, a 5-point bounce resolved down for its retest down to 2445.25. Its reaction has only bounced 3 points so far.
If, then…
Although a lot of buying pressure was expended and fulfilled yesterday, potentially completing a corrective rally, already trending down overnight is a little suspicious. The bias-down signal and a session-long decline setup are being threatened, but only being threatened at this point. And there’s room down to 2438.00 before confirming a new downleg has begun. Absorbing the overnight dip and not triggering either of the bearish opening setups could be rewarded by extending the corrective rally to 2461.00 today or tomorrow morning — at least by retesting yesterday’s high.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2443.00 would be likely to trigger the 2446.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2447.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or it has pretty much been straight down overnight and it was pretty much straight up yesterday so just mirror images of the same price action not exactly yesterday’s straight up from back here 233 overnight had rallied substantially from about 26 had rallied substantially didn’t hang on but rallied substantially pulled back and Trigger to buy signal pretty quickly at 35 that pretty quickly. Jective of retesting Friday mornings High’s 2439 50 and kept going and going and going pretty much to the balance of the session was a late dip that closed 5125 5150 which just to put that in perspective this is last week’s high and 70 2474 which was a the mornings by step Target which test is the first time in today after having tested overnights 7173 50s corrective balance limit so yesterday’s clothes basically held a 61.8% retracement of that leg that damn leg nice natural correction not as silly the end of the road notwithstanding the overnight drop that since then since it’s bending all of that buying pressure intraday and actually let’s go one minute spending all of that since it was the sponsorship of one by or at least Down Under the bias environment slow with trigger a session long decline this already took some of that pressure off that late rally but you know is a session longer aliamanu still look at his bearishly and in the context of a session long decline if yesterday’s by its environment low his broken through the open so what 4625 4650 not triggering by here 30 minutes and then break up And loud saying and now firming further it failed to recover 1705 yesterday so I’m suspicious until it is recovered and even then needs a couple of consecutive higher closes to confirm that is not in the process of rolling over same thing with gold flirted with its 1288 cell signal and didn’t recover any relevant level it’s firmer overnight firming but not above any relevant level which would need to be recovered and then confirm that a second consecutive bases before that would be credible for overcoming the likelihood that is resolving down Longmont didn’t really give up within this range.