S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Even Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement couldn’t shake what is now a four-day streak of narrowly ranging sessions. There’s no actual trending, and it IS for lack of trying:
Gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday’s 2478.75 high could have formed a session-long rally setup. But the prior high held, and the balance of the session trended down to the 2472.00 overnight low. Had the attempt been any more substantial, there would be a more substantial bearish consequence for its rejection. Instead, the complete retracement is sufficient. On the other end of the day is the small, late probe under Tuesday’s low. Somewhat similarly, starting it earlier would have reflected strong-handed sponsorship. Instead, the late break’s failure doesn’t imply some bullish resolution.
Once again, neither sellers nor buyers gained traction for their efforts. So, trending in either direction Thursday morning won’t be very credible without a gap up originating it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Piercing the 1.1650 sell signal overnight held through Wednesday morning ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Its reaction surged back up to Tuesday morning’s high, likely also t test 1.1755.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback extended overnight to test the rally’s prior objective of 1244.00 as support ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The reaction rallied back into positive territory at 1255.50, still targeting 1259.70.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A relatively shallow pullback overnight produced a gap down that ranged sideways throughout Wednesday’s session. Reaction to the FOMC policy statement surged back toward the week’s 16.60 high, still targeting 16.70.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing slightly lower overnight was extended deeper Wednesday morning. Repeating Tuesday’s deep drop was avoided, which can be bullish for the long bond’s behavior following a single session’s steep move. But the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement was not greeted from a position of strength, other than to have expended a lot of selling pressure very recently.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating around 48.25 overnight allowed a favorable reaction on Wednesday morning’s EIA report to attack 48.90. Its reaction down into negative territory filled the gap back to Monday’s 47.90 close and bounced back above 48.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An overnight probe above the 2.95 buy signal was reversed to gap down Wednesday. Extending down through the morning filled the gap back down to Monday’s 2.89. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, except for there being no unfinished business below.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three of Thursday’s four pre-open reports is high-profile, and at least one is reliably influential to price action. Any noticeable reaction to them would likely repeat on post-open reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2481.00 | 2478.75 |
| …would target | 2486.25 | 2484.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2473.00 | 2471.00 |
| …would target | 2467.75 | 2465.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding back, but holding up.
Gap up not exploited, or reversed.
Pre-open action had probed yesterday’s 2478.75 high by a full point. Yesterday’s high is also this morning’s bias-up signal. It was last touched 2 minutes before the open, which was only 1 tick lower. An offsetting test of the 2469.00 bias-down signal won’t be required for not triggering bias-up, but it would be an attraction.
Gapping up above yesterday’s highs could have formed a “session-long rally” setup. Had triggering it rejected an effort more substantial than 1 point, then the setup’s opposite resolution would be likely. We can give a fresh session low that benefit of the doubt, but not otherwise.
Probing higher anyway this morning would be doomed to failure, if not this afternoon during the FOMC reaction, then tomorrow. Probing above the bias-up signal through 10:30 would invalidate the 10:15 no-bias signal. Fresh highs would be likely, but still doomed to failure.