S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Holding ahead of FOMC.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2478.00 neutralized all unfinished business and attractions above. Even attractions that had yet to be created — the morning’s 2477.00 bias-up target, whose 2472.00 bias-up signal wouldn’t trigger for another 45 minutes. Reinforcements weren’t attracted to extend higher, and a reaction down attacked 2472.00. Probing the morning’s high during the noon hour also held, and also reacted down to attack 2472.00, albeit a little less closely.
Overnight action’s new info…
Eventually dipping to a fresh low actually touched 2472.00. Firming greeted Europe’s opens at Tuesday’s 2472.50-2474.25 lows. That triggered a rally which has extended to attack 2478.00.
If, then…
Buyers gained no traction for Tuesday effort, having fulfilled objectives without creating any new ones. And the afternoon dip requires gapping up above Tuesday’s highs to rally this morning — at least, for a rally to be credible, and for it to be durable. That could even form a “session-long rally” setup targeting 2484.00 or 2490.00. Holding an opening test of yesterday’s highs would be very vulnerable to reversing back under yesterday’s lows to 2469.00 or 2458.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2477.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2478.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2472.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2469.00 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time from Wednesday’s Morning Market to her and not a lot to go over overnight there’s one interesting development and one interesting lack of development the interest interesting development is 2470 tubing touched remember that was yesterday’s bicep signal it was never actually touched intraday the open and gapped up and immediately fulfill the 2477 bias up Target its reaction down stop short of 72 it was much too late by the time it was even attacking 72 to have any degree reliability that I might even break it was likelier to hold and do it by some signals do and bicep environments and that is defined the Rangers lower it did and it produced a retest to the hi-hat 78-75 that was the objective that was the objective of the afternoon Valance and actually the objective was 78 but likely to touch something that is this morning speaking of careless of the RC is tested retested resistance of a 960 area reacted down fresh low there is an attraction below its 78 if sellers were to become so inclined the pound still despite yesterday’s reaction down from its cap up still likely to prove a fresh High no real signal on the Livi even the Euro fulfilled its objective in the case of a retest of Friday’s High the objective was tested reacted back down neutralize the attraction back to Monday’s close overnight is dipped even deeper not arbitrarily deeper it’s testing a cell signal 1 1657 port in it that holds or not but holds if there’s going to be any higher Heights gold backing off further down to the Rally’s the Rally’s initial initial objective about that is natural support which was for the backing and filling maybe even starting a new down leg or extending the deadline as opposed to finishing this down leg and recovering okay any questions let me know I will see you at the open good luck today .
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2481.25 | 2478.75 |
| …would target | 2486.75 | 2484.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2471.50 | 2469.00 |
| …would target | 2466.00 | 2463.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s gap up to 2478.00 neutralized all unfinished business and attractions above. Just having delayed exploiting Monday’s break lower had made fresh highs likely. Previously existing was the 2476.25 new Globex trend extreme that had preceded last Thursday’s open. Yet to be an attraction was the morning’s 2477.00 bias-up target, whose 2472.00 bias-up signal wouldn’t trigger for another 45 minutes.
So, it’s interesting that the rally didn’t do anything to entrench itself. No afternoon bias-up target put into play, no uptrend gaining traction, no breakout close. Extending higher Wednesday depends upon gapping up above Tuesday’s highs, or else delaying a rally until late-afternoon. Like, in reaction to the FOMC policy statement, or in reaction to its reaction. The next higher objectives would be 2484.00 and 2490.00.
Rolling over late Tuesday was too delayed and too muted to be reliable for extending down. At least, for extending down without delay or without backing-and-filling. Not without gapping down to and/or through Friday/Monday’s “lower prior highs” at 2469.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up probed Friday’s 1.1718 high and the 1.1730 minimum objective of its retest. Trending back down nearly filled the gap back down to Monday’s 1.1677 close. Tuesday’s high or its gap didn’t require a retest, the objective of its retest was neutralized, and filling the gap below stopped optimistically short. Back under 1.1650 would seal a top and reverse the trend down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback from Monday’s gap up was extended a little deeper overnight to test 1249.00. Tuesday’s opening bounce was retraced for a retest of 1249.00. There’s room down to 1244.00 but not necessary to touch it before a fresh high fulfills the 1259.70 objective.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A steep overnight pullback to 16.22 was recovered into and out of Tuesday’s open and extended to a fresh high at 16.60. Its reaction down back under Monday’s high suggests that upside momentum is waning, and back under 16.20 would invalidate the 16.70 objective.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction down from only attacking the 155-06 objective was not in itself bearish. But it didn’t prevent overnight weakness that gapped down Tuesday under 154-28 support and extended back down to test the original 153-00 buy signal. All ahead of the FOMC policy statement. Not already rallying Wednesday morning could require retesting the 151-18 low.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s bounce back up to 46.25 resistance extended higher into Tuesday’s opening test of 47.25, and higher through the morning. Back under 46.25 would signal that topping was resolving down. Otherwise, the next opportunity for launching a downleg is from 48.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down to 2.88 Monday allowed the buy signal to be lowered to 2.95. Tuesday’s gap up tested it and hovered there throughout the morning. there is no bullish reason to further delay triggering it and extending higher.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday morning’s calendar isn’t very busy. Its post-open housing sector report may be interesting in comparison to Tuesday’s two looks. But the real attraction will come from the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET