S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday leaves unfinished business above at Tuesday’s close, in addition to the open’s gap up above all prior highs.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight mini flash crash was recovered into Wednesday’s open to retest the 1244.00 target that had held its test Tuesday. It held its test Wednesday, too, and back under 1236.00 would now signal the trend reversing back down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overcoming an overnight dip into Wednesday’s open only retested Tuesday’s highs in the 16.32-16.34 range. Now closing back under 16.02 would signal the trend reversing back down.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The recovery wasn’t quick to resume Wednesday, but didn’t have to, as the durable bottom has already formed. Any reaction down — even an intraday probe of prior lows — would be likely to recover and to resume the rally.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s post-close bobble in reaction to API was invisible at Wednesday’s open. Wednesday’s reaction to API was more obvious, surging back to the range’s 47.00 upper-end. Now closing back under 46.00 would signal momentum reversing down, which would be confirmed under 44.90.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Shallow higher highs Wednesday morning tried to outrun the attraction back to 3.01 that could inhibit the recovery.
Mid-day Update… Running on fumes.
Mission now is to hold up through the close.
The morning’s bias environment was entered in reaction down from having tested its 2465.75 bias-up target.
The pullback reaction only attacked its 2462.00 pullback limit where any deeper would have reversed the trend down. Overbought RSIs attracted price back up to fresh highs.
The fresh highs tested this afternoon’s 2467.75 bias-up signal. At 1:20 and still at 1:30. So, this is now a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-up with a required target. And not a no-bias unlikely to probe higher.
noN-bias often behaves like a no-bias, and then like bias-up when the bias environment lapses. That’s if the bias environment is spent hovering around the bias-up signal. Often enough, noN-bias reacts sharply toward the other bias signal.
Back under 2465.50 would start to signal momentum reversing down. There would be potential down to the 2462.00 bias-down signal, but no requirement to hold it. The only requirement outstanding is for a new trend high close — maybe today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy schedule is also high-profile, and contains reliably influential reports and events. The ECB policy statement is followed by Mario Draghi’s press conference which usually triggers a move or two. Any noticeable reaction to the pre-open Philly Fed survey is likely to repeat in reaction to the post-open LEI.
BOJ policy statement
6:30 PM ET
*ECB policy statement
6:30 AM ET
*Draghi press conference
6:45 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2470.50 | 2467.75 |
| …would target | 2474.75 | 2472.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2464.50 | 2462.00 |
| …would target | 2458.25 | 2455.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Last bullets.
Pre-open surge reaches highest target… BONUS VIDEO!
The narrow and largely undefined overnight range broke higher one hour before the open. Touching obligatory resistance at Friday’s 2461.25 high reacted back down to the overnight range’s downtrending resistance.
The trendline had become support, and its test launched a recovery to fresh highs confirming its breakout. Just recovering 61.8% of the breakout suggested already the pattern would extend higher. In fact, the open was greeted at or above Friday’s high and extended sharply from there.
This morning’s 2465.75 bias-up target had become the likely objective for any fresh high. An interesting RSI setup along the way essentially confirmed the target was in-play. [WATCH THE VIDEO(S) BELOW FOR A QUICK 4-6 MINUTE LESSON.] Its reaction down failed to renew the bias-up signal, but this is a bias-up environment.
Despite being a bias-up environment, extending higher this morning isn’t assured. The high’s overbought RSIs don’t require being retested since they developed during the open, but it’s still likely. Extending higher at all would next target 2469.50. Breaking under the 2459.75 bias-up signal when the bias environment is lapsing would trigger a deep intraday pullback underway. This is NOT the likeliest scenario, unless it were to resolve back in positive territory.
LESSON: 1-minute RSI diverging against a persistent 3-minute RSI.
Several minutes later…