S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… So close you can touch it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pre-open drop extended down through the open to test Friday morning’s 2450.00 “lower prior highs.” A reaction up was recovered in time to narrowly avoid triggering the 2453.25 bias-down signal. Narrowly. Too narrowly. The 2448.25 bias-down target was tested anyway, but from the position of strength of not being timely. It was “no-bias trending,” doomed to failure, so the extra dip was recovered entirely. And then it was reversed throughout the session to attack the morning’s 2459.75 objective that had become “unfinished business below.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s recovery extended through the close. The Globex open spiked up to 2461.00 and then reacted down as quickly to 2457.75. Price action since then has ranged narrowly around the 2459.75 “unfinished business above,” which is now finished.
If, then…
Is today the day? There is an outstanding requirement for a new trend extreme close, and the market couldn’t be positioned any nearer to the highs. Probing fresh highs intraday is no assurance of maintaining, any more so than was yesterday morning’s probe of fresh lows. Knowing that’s what is meant by choppy ranging since Sunday night is what helped us to anticipate yesterday’s recovery from probing fresh lows. We should also recognize that NDX attacking its prior intraday highs is bringing all three major indexes into sync with each other so that an apogee can form.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2459.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2459.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s morning market tour not a lot going on overnight really what is important about today happened yesterday and it didn’t even happen yesterday it is this late surge don’t even see it on the intraday you know the entire session was recovering basically from the mornings low in the mornings low wasn’t or betray you know there was a overnight depth actually emanated not too long before Ridge native not too long before the open early enough to have its own life but not well entrenched it did for sag app down that held a test of Last Friday mornings higher priorities balanced avoided triggering the 24th 5325 biased and Signal only narrowly though at 9 10:15 it was still within a tick not close enough to invoke the grace period at 10:30 the same thing hadn’t really despite trying hadn’t exploited that no bias triggered so that kept alive the potential for a fresh low and that fresh Lowe’s likely objective to retraced last Friday’s range to its support which also happened to be yesterday morning’s bias Town Target so not a bad ending any way to selling but the point is the rest of the session put into play or recovered and maintained what had been put into play that morning by holding the test of the biased and Signal the offsetting to the vice up signal at 5975 so the rest of the signal coming out of the and headband underway since Sunday is open and some ways since late Friday well the other thing that meant was that shopping is not that there was a lot of opinion out there a lot of extreme and pinion so not that that was going to be a false break in fact that’s not a false break yesterday morning that satisfied the target selling pressure was Matt it wasn’t to weekly sponsored same thing on the upside so this rain she doesn’t see it as well without the overnight but higher this morning it is not likely to be maintained and it will be just because we have unfinished business of that is a new but there’s no requirement for it and it’s the durability top Friday’s close not really concerned with that being filled because the it was created by opening within that range but now I haven’t filled the Gap back to Monday’s close yesterday if that’s not being exploited already today by extending down and it’s because we’re going to fill that Gap to the high another word retest the high gold fulfilled its 12:40 that’s the level that was fulfilled yesterday at the high up above and not even the first much too narrow in the context of the of what got us up here much too narrow to assign its own pattern to also the origin has to be an extreme so if we’re going to drop pattern or find a pattern in here and it should begin his me had an extreme so the extreme it has to begin at would be the overnight High and since then it’s just been down trending let’s compressor makes a difference optical illusion any other questions.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2462.25 | 2459.75 |
| …would target | 2468.25 | 2465.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2454.00 | 2451.50 |
| …would target | 2449.00 | 2446.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did Friday morning’s 2450.00 “lower prior highs” hold their test as support? That would have been expected if tested Monday morning, the first day retracing the new trend extreme. But the one-day delay had more potential to probe lower — and not just the room for noise down to 2448.25 that defined Tuesday’s low.
Nevertheless, the test resolved up into the noon hour and through the afternoon bias environment exit. The gap back to Monday’s closes was filled up to 2458.50. “Unfinished business above” at 2459.75 was left outstanding, as well as the requirement for a new trend extreme close. And now with the NDX attacking its prior intraday highs, all three major indexes may come in sync with each other so that an apogee can form.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recordinge here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A strong reaction to the US Senate punting on healthcare triggered an overnight surge through 1.1525 that gapped up sharply Tuesday, now targeting 1.1650 so long as 1.1575 now holds as support.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher overnight extended Tuesday morning to attack the next higher objective at 1244.00. Above 1245.50 could extend up to 1260.00, but back under 1234.00 would now target 1222.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s static session that didn’t extend its gap up was nevertheless extended Tuesday to test 16.35 resistance. Two consecutive sessions of gapping up are vulnerable to a correction down to 15.95.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slow-playing the retest of the 153-00 buy signal ended Tuesday morning as it broke higher to probe fresh recovery highs at 153-30. Above 154-02 would confirm a much bigger rally underway, next targeting 155-06.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping back down to or toward 46.00 Tuesday essentially confirms the inflection point is no longer predictive. But a break under 44.90 is still needed to signal a retest of the low’s consolidation range so that a durable bottom can form.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday morning all but seals a bottom. Not trending up intraday does keep alive the potential for reactions down to fill gaps or to test “lower prior highs” before extending higher.
Mid-day Update… Back on-track for highs?
Fresh lows probed too late to gain traction.
This morning’s 2453.25 bias-down signal was pierced, probed and poked all the way down to 2450.00 through the open. But it held through 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2459.75 bias-up signal is in-play.
It almost wasn’t. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under its bias-down target would have invalidated whatever had been triggered at 10:15. In fact, back under 2451.75 signaled a move underway likely targeting the 2448.25 bias-down target. Its test held, and the “no-bias trending” was recovered up to unchanged at 2456.50.
This afternoon’s no-bias environment has room up to its 2458.25 bias-up signal before becoming no-bias trending, too. Breaking out to the “unfinished business above” at 2459.75 and probably higher can begin when the bias environment is lapsing at 2:30. Otherwise, back under 2452.25 would start to signal another downleg underway targeting 2440.00.