S&P

Market Wrap (recording & summary)

By Rod David | July 17, 2017 - 4:32 pm

Friday’s 2456.50 close held its tests. Monday closed at or around it, still overlapping it, or still overlapping Friday’s leg that had closed at it. So, the newly-created “unfinished business above” remains outstanding, as the trend still requires a new trend high close. Regardless of something suppressing price action — whether currency moves or oncoming quarterly earnings onslaught — the requirement is the requirement.

Monday’s intraday range is too narrow to rely on its pattern(s) being predictive of behavior in a more heavily-sponsored environment. And the weekend’s gap since Friday afternoon’s surge undermines comparing it to Monday’s price action for a likely resolution. Nevertheless, there are templates operating on several elements — such as the new trend extreme close on a Friday, the Friday afternoon surge, and Monday morning’s “lower prior highs” beginning at 2450.00.

Not immediately extending a new trend extreme close from a Friday does tend to begin a retracement. Each day of delaying that retracement makes its minimum likely objective deeper, under 2450.00. Extending the trend anyway on Tuesday after not beginning a retracement Monday does tend to be short-lived, whether up to 2464.00-2465.00 or 5 points higher. But nothing speaks to whether that must be isolated overnight, although it can be.

Four other elements developed Monday. First, the repeated testing of 2456.50 as support from above. Second, the repeated bounces off of 2456.50 without extending higher. Third, trending down to fresh afternoon lows through the 3:10-3:20 window. Fourth, a second consecutive close AT 2456.50 where a lot of buying pressure had been satisfied already. Nothing bullish, but nothing preventing a temporary probe or two higher.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Posted in Market Wrap, members-only, S&P

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | July 17, 2017 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday still fluctuated around the 1.1510-1.1525 resistance that had reacted down last week to 1.1450 support. There’s no requirement to break lower, but any further delay would more likely extend up.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher into Monday’s open attacked the next higher resistance at 1236.00 to within 50 cents, still having potential for extending to 1247.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After remaining within the week’s range through Friday’s close, rallying into Monday’s open gapped up to 16.09, and closed there, after an interim probe higher through the morning. Back under 15.90 would retest 15.55-15.60.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up to touch the 153-00 buy signal at Monday’s open reacted down to 152-14, but firmed again into the afternoon, still poised to launch a recovery leg.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s eventual close above the 46.00 buy signal was already suspicious, and didn’t extend higher Sunday night. Monday’s action gradually slipped back down to 46.00, further suggesting that it isn’t triggering.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s open at the 2.98 short-term downtrending inflection point immediately surged to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 3.05 close. Closing any higher should extend the recovery without further delay. Meanwhile, much further delay would retest Friday’s pre-open dip to 2.92.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only

Mid-day Update… Slow creep.

By Rod David | July 17, 2017 - 1:59 pm

Piercing higher, but not extending.

Since reacting up from the open’s 2454.25 low, the session has essentially trended up in several relatively wide swings. The noon hour’s exit reached a high probing 3 ticks above this afternoon’s 2459.75 bias-up signal.

But 2459.75 held. So, this afternoon is a no-bias environment. This morning was a no-bias environment, too. That didn’t prevent probing higher, but it hasn’t helped remaining higher — let alone extending. And now each of today’s intraday swings have overlapped the same 2459.00 bounce limit that was enacted at Friday’s close.

Back under 2457.50 would suggest this afternoon’s bias environment will be exited in decline. Extending down this afternoon would still target at least a test of “lower prior highs” at 2450.00. Otherwise, fresh session highs would be credible for extending higher, probably to 2464.00-2465.00, and possibly higher.

Posted in members-only, Mid-day Update, S&P

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 18, 2017

By Rod David | July 17, 2017 - 12:34 pm

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: A lot of housing sector reports this week. Surprises should be reliable for influencing price action this week ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, and after last week’s rallies on weak consumer metrics.

Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET

Posted in Bigger Picture, Econ Calendar, members-only

Afternoon Bias

By Rod David | July 17, 2017 - 11:59 am

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)	SPX	ES
Bias-up: above	2462.50	2459.75
…would target	2467.25	2464.75
Bias-down: under	2455.75	2453.25
…would target	2451.00	2448.25
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL		FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Posted in Bias-parameters, members-only, S&P