S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 12, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The first day of Fed chair Yellen’s two-day semi-annual congressional testimony begins in the House on Wednesday. The afternoon’s Beige Book and Fed speaker could influence price action, too.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Testifies
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
*Esther George Speaks
2:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2424.75 | 2422.25 |
| …would target | 2430.25 | 2428.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2417.00 | 2414.75 |
| …would target | 2411.50 | 2409.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Wash, rinse, repeat.
Support contains early sellers again.
A pre-open bounce greeted the open up to 2424.50. Its reaction dipped sharply to probe the overnight low down to 2420.50, 1 point under this morning’s 2421.50 bias-down signal. That also happens to be a calculable inflection point, and probing it any deeper than those first 4 ticks would have reflected strong-handed sellers.
The setup is similar to yesterday, and so is its resolution. Support held, probably marginalizing sellers for the morning. Having held a test of the 2421.50 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2428.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Fresh post-open highs are already testing 2425.00.
Exiting the bias environment back under 2421.50 would be credible for inserting a detour, but a detour is otherwise unlikely. Meanwhile, exceeding 2428.00 would suggest extending to probe above yesterday’s highs.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not extending up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Testing 2429.00 Sunday night was retraced back under Friday’s 2425.00 high, and then back under its 2421.50 last relative low. All before the open. Isolating the probe above Friday’s high to the overnight did reflect weak-handed buyers. But testing the prior low down to 2419.25 was recovered through the open to prevent momentum from reversing down. Bouncing through the afternoon attacked the overnight high, and momentarily probed it up to 2430.00. But it was reversed back down to test Friday’s 2425.00 through the close. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open Initially dipped slightly deeper to 2422.50. Firming gradually and relentlessly attacked this morning’s 2428.00 bias-up signal before Europe’s opens. Reacting down from its retest has extended lower, now piercing the initial low by 3 ticks to attack this morning’s 2421.50 bias-down signal.
If, then…
Monday’s was testing Friday’s 2425.00 high instead of breaking under it decisively. Extending under 2424.00 through the futures close was too late to be predictive, too. The overnight bounce was too shallow for restarting the setup so that another dip could gain traction, unless the open is quickly breaking back under yesterday’s opening low through 2419.25. Trending up would all but require gapping up above Monday’s highs, which isn’t indicated or even threatened.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2428.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2421.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2418.00 would likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s morning market tour not a lot of news overnight not market-related at least and that maybe the Rally’s problem we’re really going to say I cannot stick as far as the open with the open needs to do there’s really only a couple things that it will there’s a lot of things of mine too but as far as being predictive you know there was this late looking back here at yesterday afternoon there was a late break hire that didn’t gain traction time I did buy a single-bar exceed its 3 minute high but it was a fresh eye itself so it doesn’t require being extended it didn’t actually put into play the next higher objective at 2433 or to the degree that it did it was offset overruled and validated by the brake lower so there’s no higher objective outstanding it’s our size word simultaneously oversold so there’s no unfinished business after couple of days first of all Fridays Gap up it was too shallow to gain traction but Friday factors prevented or hibited Sellers from coming in and got a little bit higher into the closer to the afternoon didn’t really bounced adzzup was attacked with it a tick last night 2150 is the bias down sitting on if it triggers and triggers and if it triggers it has every bit of credibility to extend down 2150 s break the bias down signal would have support obligatory support at Friday mornings High’s lower paralyzed and 1750 but then there’s that Gap retest retest Thursdays that’s required but a probe under it that would be likely if not the fresh Lowe’s 2399 2393 a lot of up but it all depends on and but this this path basically up and then back down that seems to be in play here Trinity having traded down to 4386 not yet a fresh low on this way it’s this pattern back here that needs to be your tested at least two its upper and lower prioritize 4340 like we are just a little bit deeper into it that’s where a bottom can start to form or finish for me a natural gas the Gap back because it was created by gapping up with in French to .
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2430.50 | 2428.00 |
| …would target | 2435.50 | 2433.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2424.00 | 2421.50 |
| …would target | 2418.00 | 2415.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.