S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
We knew early that Monday wasn’t going to be a “dry cleaners” morning. But we also knew its trending attempts would likely fail. Isolating probes above or below 2425.00 Monday was also important. The overnight probe was isolated through the open, but the sellers that setup attracted weren’t able to break under Friday’s last relative low. Which led to the morning bias environment’s rally, which didn’t reject its probe above 2425.00, but held the bias-up signal.
Closing above or below Friday’s 2425.00 high was similarly important Monday. So, of course, the session closed more AT it than beyond it in either direction. Trending attempted, and failed.
The late blip-up to 2430.00 seems unrewarding to buyers that kept the afternoon propped up above 2428.00. But its reaction down left no “unfinished business above.” And its reaction down also developed too late to be predictive, regardless of dropping to 2424.00 through the futures close.
Rejecting an early rally effort, or simply trending back down, would be credible for launching a retest of last week’s lows. Trending up would all but require gapping up above Monday’s highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday and Friday’s highs filled the prior Thursday and Friday’s closing gaps, neutralizing their upside attraction. Gapping down Monday to Friday’s lows doesn’t qualify as rejecting the upside attractions, let alone as reversing the trend down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows Sunday night tested the 1204.80 objective, but recovered before Monday’s open to avoid an intraday retest. Closing higher Tuesday could reverse momentum up near-term for a corrective bounce, but a bottom in this pattern should leave no overnight low untested intraday — including Sunday night’s 1204.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s fresh low at 15.15 wasn’t tested by Monday’s gap down, which soon reversed sharply into positive territory at 15.70. Closing back above the decline’s 15.55-15.60 target that was thoroughly tested Friday does suggest a bottom is forming, but recovering another blip-down would be helpful.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher ranging Monday morning didn’t exacerbate the pre-open surge into a “warning shot across the bow” at sellers of an impending bottom forming.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing of fresh lows Sunday night was retraced entirely to gap up slightly Monday. The overnight lows had stopped short of the 43.40 objective, which would help to complete the recent bottoming pattern.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up within Friday’s range leaves no “unfinished business below.” Extending higher intraday to Friday’s high, which had tested 2.95 resistance, still must recover it by more than a 2-cent margin to start sealing a bottom while reversing momentum up.
Mid-day Update… Defying gravity?
Upholding session highs.
Potential for extending this morning’s rally to 2428.00 was fulfilled to within 3 ticks during the bias environment. It was probed by 3 ticks during the noon hour.
And now it was overlapped during the afternoon bias timing window.
2428.00 being the afternoon’s bias-up signal, still overlapping it at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias. Most noN-bias environments behave like a no-bias, holding the bias-up signal’s test. Some would extend higher to fulfill the 2433.00 despite it not being put into play.
Rejecting the bias-up signal’s test isn’t required by a noN-bias or a no-bias, not when triggered during the afternoon. But a reaction down is still possible, and would be very credible back under 2426.00 for reversing the trend down aggressively.
Reversing down would likely be aggressively, anyway, to offset the delay. But although this morning’s no-bias environment’s upper-end defined by its 2426.50 bias-up signal, its probe above Friday’s 2425.00 high wasn’t isolated. And the open’s isolation of the overnight probe ran into a bullish setup by holding/overlapping tests of Friday’s 2421.50 and 2423.00 prior lows.
Extending higher would next target 2433.00, and still qualify as a corrective bounce. Back under 2426.00 would signal the corrective bounce had ended.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 11, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s payrolls surprise wasn’t so surprising as to change Fed expectations. Tuesday’s post-open Jobs Openings report is another chance to surprise. The day’s two Fed speakers could influence price action, too.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Lael Brainard Speaks
12:00 PM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:20 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2430.50 | 2428.00 |
| …would target | 2435.50 | 2433.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2424.00 | 2421.50 |
| …would target | 2418.00 | 2415.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.