S&P
Post-open Review… Chop ahead.
Enough fluctuation to suggest wide swings.
The probe above Friday’s 2425.00 high was isolated to the overnight. Only now is 2425.00 even being attacked as resistance, after the open dipped to 2419.25. The setup suggests that buyers are weak-handed and that the pattern will resolve down.
But the open’s tests of Friday’s last relative lows at 2421.50-2422.00 held as support through 9:45. That’s not necessarily bullish, but it robs sellers of their traction. Which explains the post-open bounce attacking 2425.00.
No 3 of the first hour’s 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level. A dry cleaners morning isn’t likely. That doesn’t make trending any likelier — especially since neither bias signal was touched. But tests of either 2417.00 or 2426.50 would likely hold, and reverse back into the range. Until the bias environment starts lapsing, when trending become likelier.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Head-fake rubber band, n’est-ce pas?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open gapped up 6 points to 2414.00 in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. Attempts at extending were resisted twice by 2417.50 as the morning ranged choppily sideways. Breaking higher through the bias environment exit extended through Thursday’s 2421.50 high up to 2425.00. The afternoon bias environment ranged narrowly back down to Thursday’s 2421.50 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night soon broke through Friday’s 2425.00 high on the way up to 2429.00. Only 3-minute RSI diverged negatively, but the reaction has probed back under Friday’s 2425.00 highs down to 2423.00.
If, then…
If Friday’s optimism of gapping up and extending higher was not rejected intraday. Sunday night’s immediate extension doesn’t validate it by proxy, unless it enables Monday’s open to gap up above levels that Friday’s open and rally had failed to recover. That doesn’t seem to be in-play currently. If the optimism will was ineffectual then its rally only stretched the rubber band tighter to launch the next move down more aggressively. Having probed overnight above the prior session’s highs, exiting the open under the earlier 2422.00 Globex lows would be likely to trend down, confirming the rubber band is snapping back. Otherwise, not yet trending down out of the open would keep open the potential for retesting overnight highs this morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2426.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s market Rabbit actually past time for Monday’s Mark and wrapped we are getting a little late start today someone of a positive Divergence here one minute and 3 minute are size into this low that is now performing back at unchanged essentially and only three minute are inside virgin negatively at the high back at this unchanged essentially unchanged level after having probed higher overnight and not by a little not noise there’s complexity there you can see the definition of running correction like pattern and then I are high that is complexity and that says it’s not just noise and since it’s not just noise and it’s probing up with that is probing above the prior sessions High he have the earlier portion of the other night sessions low isn’t held if it’s broken through the open that is a 9:45 if I having probed above Friday’s High overnight with complexity the earlier low is broken momentum will of reverse down this will basically act as somewhat of a rubber band not necessarily the rubber band that I’m about to describe that would essentially stretch and then snapback that’s more the effect of having gapped up to shallowly Friday Friday and the rally we’re going to resume if it were going to prove that the bottom was already in as of Thursday afternoon Friday is open because buyers didn’t game certainly didn’t gain traction on this Thursday afternoon Friday is open would have gapped up above the prior sessions High it didn’t in fact it spent the morning above or under and that’s after gapping up little deceptive there and resolving up of it from The Gap UPS consolidation so again just seemingly optimistic in fact it’s ineffectually optimistic nope maybe it’s eventually optimistic in which case today’s open we describe the sun Saturday’s reviews today’s open would have been gapped up above the to Pryor Road and highs that’s not being done being challenged it’s kind of late to take that seriously if it does so what is happening and we know that and fact Friday’s ineffectual optimism that try to extend our overnight fails then down we go what about the upside well if the sellers aren’t taken control at the open if the earlier overnight low 2422 basically 2422 7523 being tested now but really a priority from Friday afternoon would be helpful confirmation to take out as well that’s not being taken out through the open then flat the higher and higher could be aggressive nothing says that hire can’t be aggressive just because sellers almost took control and didn’t nothing says it has to be higher just because they were prevented from taking control or that is aggressively higher but flat to hire would be the only two options remaining of sellers can’t take control at the open and if they do and will get an extra will get some degree of confidence in a bottom baby for me but that’s really it has no requirement that kind of grudgingly and in this pattern that’s comprised multiples that keep breaking lower and no break no false prior that resolved down as triangles often do that began aggressively and its origin this pattern is I’ve been saying everyday tends to resolve one way it tends to resolve one way into Steps step one is Progressive so big spike basically looking for identify this is.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2428.50 | 2426.50 |
| …would target | 2433.75 | 2431.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2419.00 | 2417.00 |
| …would target | 2413.00 | 2411.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted at Thursday morning’s 2410.25 low, but not trending up. The gap up was only several points higher. And the morning ranged choppily sideways. All of which was more reflective of the ongoing downtrend’s overwhelming momentum, and less about the bottom finally being in.
The afternoon’s 2423.00 bias-up signal triggered officially, but only by a 1-tick margin. Piercing higher momentarily was random noise, and not trending. Its target won’t be considered “unfinished business above.”
Essentially, Friday’s session was full of optimism and fulfilling for optimists. But its major accomplishments were to delay the eventual fresh low, and to stretch the rubber band for starting the next move lower. A fresh low can still form a bottom if it were to develop correctly. Reversing up already Monday would not be credible without gapping up at least 12-13 points.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us for this weekend’s Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET. Its link will be emailed early morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting down to Friday’s Employment Situation report held the 1.1400 that has filled one gap above, and still needs to fill the high close’s gap at 1.1480 for a credible downleg to begin.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing briefly overnight under 1220.00-1224.00 to 1218.50 was trying to recover before Friday’s Employment Situation report triggered a drop to fresh lows at 1206.50, within $2 of another potential bottom.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A flash-crash Thursday night caused a temporary spike down that fulfilled the decline’s 15.55-15.60 target. Reacting up to attack 16.00 into Friday’s open was reversed down to fresh lows under 15.35 through the morning. There is no active signal.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Friday in reaction to the Employment Situation report weren’t so substantial to allow lowering the 152-20 reversal signal or its 153-00 confirmation.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down to 44.90 extended sharply lower to test 44.25 by almost 50 cents. The backing-and-filling down to the 43.40 area has likely begun, so that a more durable bottom can finish forming.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying overnight gapped up to what is now resistance at 2.95 was reversed down through Friday morning to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 2.88 close, still leaving the gap back down to Wednesday’s 2.85 close to be filled so that a rally can be credible.