S&P
Mid-day Update… Suddenly, the mood shifts.
Limited upside attraction finds air pocket below.
No complexity to the 2719.75 overnight high had relieved it from requiring intraday retest. But I was giving a retest a benefit of the doubt so long as the 2811.75 earlier 
Globex low held as support. Which it did, easily, well before the 2815.50 open that also tested the 2717.50 bias-up target.
The 2815.50 open even maintained its gap up to form an anchor that would rescue an attempted decline. Which it did, after retesting the 2811.75 earlier Globex low. But the rescue didn’t extend higher. And the rescue filled the 2715.50 opening gap after probing back into last Monday’s “lower prior highs.” And the anchor’s rescue quality had been neutralized. All after having met the 2717.50 bias-up target.
No “unfinished business” above didn’t require reversing down, not after triggering late bias-up. But the market collapsed anyway. Probing under the 2809.75 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment had required its retracement — until the bias environment lapsed under the 2798.25 bias-down signal to establish that sellers were stronger-handed.
Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI continually warned against buying dips or getting too exposed to bounces. But now RSIs have diverged into the eventual 2767.50 low. Late no-bias has rejected tests of both the 2769.25 and 2777.00 bias-down parameters. And their reaction is testing 2781.50 with potential to 2790.75.
Bigger picture: Today’s fresh high creates a new prior relative low from Wednesday’s dip to 2775.00. Closing under it would signal the trend reversing down. These are often defended, so a second confirming close would be required. But not already rejecting its test this afternoon could very well end the day far below it.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 5, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s econ reports are largely high-profile, and potentially influential to price action. Any noticeable reaction to the post-open PMI would likely be duplicated in reaction to ISM.
Eric Rosengren Speaks
7:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2790.75 | 2790.75 |
| …would target | 2798.00 | 2798.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2776.75 | 2777.00 |
| …would target | 2769.00 | 2769.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Anchor away.
Gap up maintained and recovered, but not yet resumed.
Firming into the open up to 2816.00 initially blipped-up to 2818.00. Any higher would have been compelling to buy, but its resistance held. The opening 15 minutes of volatility fluctuated at or above the opening print to create an anchor.
That anchor was soon called upon to attract price back up to it, from a sudden dip down to 2811.50. But its recovery didn’t resume the rally, and another drop tested the 2809.75 bias-up signal by 3 ticks.
The bias-up signal triggered late. And back above 2814.50 would indicate the 2819.75 overnight high’s retest is likely underway. The bias-up environment could include another detour down to 2808.00, and since the 2817.50 bias-up target was met already, under 2808.00 would be vulnerable to launching a deeper decline.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sunday’s similar sequential setups.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s relentless rally from 2782.75 had extended 20 points to 2803.00. And that was before a last-minute surge through the open extended to neutralize the “unfinished business” back to Monday’s 2807.75 opening gap. Obligatory resistance was expected, but its reversal nearly retraced all of Thursday’s close down to 2787.00 by noon. The balance of the session rallied back up to within 3 ticks of the open’s high, closing at 2804.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another last-minute Trump China trade tweet triggered a buying frenzy at Sunday night’s Globex open. Gapping up to 2814.00 quickly extended to attack 2820.00. I added a warning to the chaRTroom screen that since last week’s similar setup had held up and eventually extended this sequential Sunday’s similar setup would be vulnerable to reversing down. And the balance of the night has only trended back down, through midnight and Europe’s opens, probing below the earlier Globex low to 2809.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday afternoon’s recovery was slightly less likely to reverse down immediately, likelier to first extend higher. Having missed the opportunity Friday morning for being satisfied with only an attack on last Monday’s 2814.00 high to 2812.50, extending higher had become likely to probe fresh highs up to 2817.50. So, Sunday night’s gap up has neutralized upside attractions. Being a similar setup to last Sunday suggests resolving differently by Monday’s open. This week’s instance lacks the complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, but the setups are still comparable. I’ll be reluctant to sell prior to its retest so long as the open remains within the overnight high’s orbit, which begins above the open’s 2812.00 opening low. The area below it down to Friday’s ~2808.00 highs is a gray area, but exiting the opening 15 minutes any lower would be treated as a bearish Globex-flip — likelier to trend down this morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2808.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2809.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2812.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.