S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
We started the day Wednesday with a review of all the “ineffectual optimism” that had been fueling the decline from a contrarian perspective. That’s weak-handed sponsorship, meaning that strong hands were sellers. So, did strong hands already vacate the market earlier than usual Wednesday, allowing weak hands the day’s substantial run-up?
Closing above a relevant level should define the difference between strong-handed and weak-handed sponsorship. And Wednesday did close at or above the relevant levels of 2435.50 and 2538.00. That can be invalidated by gapping down Thursday to and or through 2431.50. Holding a test of 2431.50 would more likely establish a session low.
Keep in mind that volume may remain relatively stable, but actual liquidity — a diversity of opinion, sentiment and motivation — will be thin. Almost like a Friday, the morning’s bias can extend through the noon hour.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially dipping held the 1.1355 pullback limit Wednesday before resolving up sharplyto 1.1441. Extending higher Wednesday confirms Tuesday’s breakout from a multi-session range. Regardless of either session’s advance or the cumulative gain, at least an eventual third higher close is required.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further overnight finally retraced the 1254.50 origin of last of Sunday night’s “fat finger” plunge. Its resistance held post-open, enabling another downdraft to begin that actually tests the decline’s 1235.00 target.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight probed the 16.75 prior high that had preceded Sunday night’s “fat finger” sell-off. Its reaction down was recovered, but not exceeded through the close.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s steep drop had only two likely resolutions, either to extend down a lot immediately, or else to rally. Sharply lower overnight lows tested the next leg’s 154-16 objective down to 154-09 and bounced. Wednesday’s post-open action dipped to attack the overnight low down to 154-19.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down to API after Tuesday’s close was recovered overnight, and then extended in reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA report. The 44.90 target was attacked to almost within a nickel, while forming an Ascending Triangle targeting 45.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and extending higher Wednesday confirmed Tuesday’s breakout, sealing a bottom. That bottom can still be tested as support down to 2.95, but the rally is otherwise free to exten.
Mid-day Update… Session-long, anyway?
Trending higher through every timing window, so far.
Yesterday afternoon’s 2431.50 bias environment high had printed early in its window, before plunging 11 points. the window ended by bouncing up to 2427.50. We discussed during yesterday’s Market Wrap that gapping up and/or through 2427.50 would have to be respected. But an actual “session-long rally” setup would require gapping up through 2431.50.
None of which has prevented extending higher relentlessly today since isolating the probe under yesterday’s lows to the overnight. Every timing window has probed the prior window. This morning’s renewed bias-up target was fulfilled, and now this afternoon has triggered late bias-up.
If this were a session-long rally, then only one timing window would not print a higher high. Typically, that’s the noon hour, but not today. The afternoon bias environment was just entered, and avoiding a fresh high would enable the final hour to extend to new highs. But there is immediate vulnerability to reversing down the moment after printing a new during this afternoon’s bias environment.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 29, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: GDP is high-profile but has no track record for influencing price action. It might be influential Thursday by its simultaneous release with Jobless Claims, which also is high-profile but not generally influential. The afternoon Fed speaker could have a significant impact.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2441.50 | 2438.75 |
| …would target | 2447.75 | 2445.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2432.75 | 2431.00 |
| …would target | 2428.00 | 2425.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.