S&P
Post-open Review… Cleared it.
One prior high exceeded, another being tested.
The 2428.00 open extended a couple of points above it, and then reversed to a couple of points below it. Pretty much all during the opening 15 minutes of volatility, 
and all fluctuating around yesterday afternoon’s 2427.50 last relative high.
Still testing 2427.50 at 9:45 doesn’t equate to rejecting it. It also doesn’t equate to its recovery, but that didn’t prevent extending higher to test yesterday afternoon’s 2431.50 bias environment high. Consolidating there ahead of the EIA report violated the pullback limit down to 2429.00.
The dip to 2429.00 proved to be a false break as EIA triggered a spike up in Crude Oil now almost within a nickel of its target, taking ES to the 2435.50 renewed bias-up target.
This morning’s signaled buying pressure is now fulfilled at 2435.50. Higher prior lows from yesterday morning’s bounce is being tested there. That’s also Monday’s early and late lows, and Friday’s cash session close. It’s a lot of resistance.
Exiting the bias environment back under 2431.50 would signal that this morning’s rally had peaked. Back under 2432.75 would start that leg. Otherwise, room for noise above 2435.50 to 2438.00 is possible — but not likely, and not healthy.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hope springs eternal.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Triggering Tuesday morning’s 2433.00 bias-down signal didn’t prevent optimism from producing a bounce to 2437.00 into the noon hour. But it prevented the bounce from extending higher longer. And it obligated the decline’s resumption to compensate for the delay. Which was fulfilled by the afternoon’s slide down to 2416.50. Even that still reflected optimism, as that only touched a 1-1/2 week old prior low before bouncing.
Overnight action’s new info…
Is optimism alive and well? Yesterday’s 2417.00 cash session close has been probed a couple of time, but only briefly and relatively shallowly. Lower lows attacked 2415.00 but mostly recovered to greet Europe’s opens 2 ticks short of yesterday’s 2420.50 futures close. Reacting down to probe another lower low piercing 2414.00 was recovered again — this time to 2424.00.
If, then…
Thorough corrections end in pessimism, as no one who hasn’t yet sold can be convinced to sell. Rampant optimism may be enabling the decline from last Monday’s high to persist. Filling gaps without reversing up defined four days last week. Monday’s gap up was a false breakout from a multi-session range. Yesterday morning’s ill-fated bounce scoffed at a triggered bias-down signal, and the eventual reversal barely touched a prior low. And now brief bouts of overnight weakness are quickly attracting buyers. Perhaps too quickly. Enough optimism that produces a gap up above yesterday’s last relative high would have to be respected, but until then doubted. The most bullish scenario today would at least probe overnight lows aggressively.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2425.25 would be likely to trigger the 2422.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2419.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s morning market tour today’s theme is optimism and it’s not actually today’s theme we’re just going to make it today is thing it’s been the same I think we can ascribe a little bit of that to last Monday which gapped up above prioritize or at least two and through prior Highs but then extended through prioritize end of the afternoon usually in that set up the session High Prince during the afternoon we got 2 of them on that Monday so I have to so the face of a bias Down Still rallying yesterday morning and that optimism most ineffectual resolving down most sharply and yet even with that sharpest resolution down is not the biggest sellout that Rivals the biggest so off but in that compress time frame certainly the most substantial so we’re starting to see not necessarily more pessimism just relatively less optimism but there’s still optimism yesterday’s low lately touched the the one and a half week old low Hills back at a little bit so there it is the 15th had stopped at 2124 1650 and so did yesterday how did that bounced too well initially was Consolidated probe slightly lower overnight and bounced into Europe’s opens Pro blower again slightly lower again on the same plane so according to that not even lower think of the cost of inflation continuing down Les expressing expecting a lot of optimism probably won’t attract more optimism than it spends or leverages but still defined the morning is booked however there’s that risk than that really what it’s doing is expending optimism at the wrong time the intraday sponsorship it’s going to be needed to Shepherd price higher is it around yet they’re not responding to this so these these bottom Fishers overnight they’re getting rewarded they’re going to be putting pressure on the market on the downside just when when intraday buyers are going to be arriving in trying to do the opposite or Rally’s going to be counting on them to do the opposite so can’t yet this miss the potential for resolving down again and that’s today this morning 2420 5024 2250 is the bias up signal it’s being tested right now it’s being influential right now if it’s triggered it’s triggered and it puts into play 24 2850 if it holds if it’s even tested Post open but if it holds as resistance ultimately at 10:15 to put Sam to play an offsetting test of the Bass Down signal and despite it already haven’t been tested overnight 2417 724 1475 it would be in play and if any of what I described already about this premature or this balance being premature if that plays out already if it’s playing on already ahead of the open bias down could even trigger and there is much lower lows out there if the market wants to get there there’s oversold are size of 24 1250 that could be tested yesterday confirm the next day on Monday break out Friday night confirmed on Monday break out again from another multi-session range the friday-monday multi-session range breaks out yesterday pretty substantial that doesn’t prevent extending higher and confirming today but being the fourth day of this sequence is Ford a sequence where the first three have done this actually makes today less likely if not actually unlikely to confirm so despite probing lower despite Pro I’m sorry propane hire that is yesterday and that probing lower overnight there’s potential for fresh high today a fresh high today in the context of a pattern that’s unlikely to close positive would be pretty interesting in the bigger picture of have potentially gapping down at the open probing of fresh Hi and then closing lower conform and pivot reversal but that’s the pattern and turn into a long way that went the other way for a while but it didn’t get anywhere back to Monday’s closed by the time we got to the open we were substantially lower that back under opening back under the prioritize wasn’t required to extend down wasn’t required to extend down substantially but open the door that said that does create a template or allow a template than does allow that and it did fulfill it buy trending down sharply okay so as of your clothes out when does do this there’s it’s just a Nuance of the bond market we don’t really see it elsewhere sometimes in currencies sometimes in the metals gold specifically big day like this comes about one of two things happens either it doesn’t that doesn’t seem like a profound statement but here’s where it is when it is down a lot it does immediately now .
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2425.50 | 2422.50 |
| …would target | 2431.25 | 2428.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2417.50 | 2414.75 |
| …would target | 2412.00 | 2409.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
One piece of “unfinished business above” remains outstanding at 2454.00. It was a bias-up target that triggered that afternoon. It’s likely to be retested soon after the current pullback ends.
But there’s no requirement for the pullback to end.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s plunge down to 2416.50 only touched a prior low. That’s optimistically short of what constitutes an optimal test, let alone thorough. Especially when the next lower objective is only 1 points lower, or 2 points when including its room for noise that is likely to be tested.
There’s some potential for “lower prior highs” at 2412.00 to formulate a bottom, which would launch a retest of the highs. Otherwise, probing any lower would next target 2399.00.
Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment high printed very early at 2431.50. A lower high printed at 2427.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. Having trended down into the close, just recovering one prior high at Wednesday’s open could form a “session-long rally.” Optimally, the setup would gap up above the entire bias environment. Likely, the decline persists.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Favorable comments overnight by ECB Chief Draghi triggered a surge through the 1.1255 buy signal and the 1.1270 peak of Monday’s test of it, extending sharply higher to 1.1388. No second consecutive higher close would suggest a deeper pullback underway.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s plunge had been retraced considerably to 1253.80 by Tuesday’s open but not entilrely, still not yet testing the decline’s 1235.00 target either overnight or intraday. Closing higher Wednesday would be premature.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s plunge had been retraced almost entirely by Tuesday’s open up to 16.70, not yet having tested the decline’s 16.25-16.30 target intraday. Closing higher Wednesday is possible, but not optimal while still not having retested Sunday night’s low.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s night dip to the 156-20 pullback limit extended down sharply to open under 156-14 and to slide much deeper to 155-07. This tested the two-week old consolidation’s lows. Extending down immediately would be the product of new sponsorship, and so it would be credible for targeting 154-16. Not extending down immediately would be credible for recovering.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday night’s high already probed above Sunday night’s 43.65 high, making the attempt likely to extend higher intraday. Fresh highs up to 44.44 suggest the 44.90 bounce target is in-play.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher overnight to 3.06 had pulled back to open flat, then recovered back up to overnight highs. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a bottom has been sealed.