S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2793.25 | 2793.50 |
| …would target | 2800.25 | 2800.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2786.25 | 2786.75 |
| …would target | 2779.75 | 2780.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The least it can do.
Monday’s gap filled. Is that all?
Monday’s 2707.75 opening print was above all other highs in trend.
If not extended, it would require being filled from below. Not arbitrarily, but after first dipping to test “lower prior highs.” Those lower prior highs have been tested since then, until last night’s rally greeted today’s open at 2803.50.
Post-open action extended higher relentlessly to 2808.25, neutralizing the “unfinished business” at 2707.75. Some resistance there was likely, although not necessary, and not necessarily substantial. But resistance there has pushed price down sharply to 2794.50.
While there is no longer unfinished business above, there is on requirement that neutralizing it now launches a new downleg. There’s also no requirement to extend higher, whether for a corrective bounce to 2803.50, or back to Monday’s highs up to 2812.50 or even to 2817.50.
Today’s sentiment can shift 180 degrees, multiple times. The only likelihood against reversing down would not come until this afternoon, if its bias environment were exited above the noon hour highs. The session otherwise remains vulnerable to probing lower lows.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… In like a lion, indeed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s market was range bound without any of the week’s earlier volatility catalysts. Range bound, but still choppy, resisted by 2793.00-2794.00. An overnight swing down to 2781.75 was nevertheless contained within Wednesday’s range, which contained Thursday morning’s swing down to 2783.50. The afternoon’s swing was even narrower, although the last 3:37-3:52 Position-squaring window collapsed momentarily to pierce the morning’s lows at 2782.75. Gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory suggests that weak hands are bearish, meaning strong hands are bulls. Not quite a buy signal, but reinforcing an immediately bullish move Friday. The narrowing extended range has limited predictive value otherwise.
Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately bullish moves don’t get much more immediate than this. Thursday’s late dip had bounced 6 points through the close to prove its weak-handed sponsorship. Globex immediately dipped back down to attack the late intraday low to within 1 tick, but no lower, and immediately began recovering. Thursday’s highs were soon probed up to 2795.50, and then to 2798.50, hovering there through midnight. Another push higher to 2802.50 just after Europe’s opens immediately began hovering there, too.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
March is coming in like a lion, and that’s not just a favorable comparison to yesterday’s inside day. The post-close Market Tour pointed out that with Thursday’s narrowing range behind, and weekend illiquidity ahead, credible trending would have to appear sooner rather than later Friday. Based on the overnight levels of influential resistance, the pattern’s next higher objective would neutralize the outstanding gap back up to Monday’s 2808.00 open. One challenge in this setup will be in attracting post-open reinforcements, which is hardly assured after having trended relentlessly overnight. That resolution will then be influenced by Friday Factors, which help the open’s bias to persist through the noon hour. Bias-up seems very likely to trigger, but not necessarily bias-up renewed.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2796.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2798.00 bias-up target at 10:15 or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2800.50 would be likely to exceed 2798.00 at 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2790.50 | 2790.75 |
| …would target | 2797.75 | 2798.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2780.00 | 2780.50 |
| …would target | 2774.00 | 2774.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The week’s earlier volatility catalysts had largely subsided before Thursday’s open. Left to its own devices, intraday price action proved uninterested in resolving to either direction. Two considerable trending attempts overnight had remained within Wednesday’s range. Morning choppiness was restrained by a shrinking range. And the afternoon range was narrower still.
Price action from a narrowing extended range has limited predictive value. But gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory suggests that weak hands are bearish, which would mean strong hands are bulls. This factor isn’t predictive, but would reinforce an immediately bullish move Friday.
With the narrowing range behind, and weekend illiquidity ahead, credible trending would appear sooner rather than later Friday. Appear early, and quickly extend beyond a prior relevant level, or else Friday’s biggest risk would be remaining within the relatively narrow range.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.