S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2435.75 | 2435.00 |
| …would target | 2440.75 | 2440.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2427.25 | 2426.50 |
| …would target | 2422.25 | 2421.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 by surging to fresh post-open highs. Resistance at 2434.25 was quickly probed up to 2435.75. Nothing substantial, and the final hour’s entry didn’t budge any higher. Here’s why: the market collapsed through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window, and into the 3.37 position-squaring window. The balance of the session ranged sideways at 2428.00.
Every attempt to break lower intraday would have had one objective in-play — to retest the morning’s 2426.50 bias-down target that had held the overnight drop. It would have easily held if tested post-open, instead of only being attacked to within 2 ticks. Now its test would likely probe lower to compensate for the delay. Candidates continue to be 2424.25 and 2421.50.
Only gapping up Wednesday above 2434.25-2435.75 would be credible for marginalizing the pullback. Any less opening strength would be likelier to reverse back down to fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s flat open firmed throughout the day, essentially filling the gap back up to Friday’s close and retesting its test of 1.1285. Any higher would resume the rally, but closing back under 1.1235 would launch a downleg.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply to the next higher resistance range at 1296.50-1298.50 essentially requires probing April’s highs above 1300.00. But the resistance is substantial, and testing it by gapping up often requires backing-and-filling before extending higher. A pullback has room down to 1285.50 while still maintaining the rally’s momentum.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already probing higher at Tuesday’s open, the next higher objective at 17.90 has gotten closer. The steady pace of its attraction doesn’t make downdrafts any likelier, but it does make downdrafts likelier to be relatively shallow and easily recovered.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s backing-and-filling could be dismissed for Friday having fulfilled its longstanding objective and then exceeding it through the close. The pullback still had some room below before recovering, but already extended the rally before Tuesday’s open. Now fresh highs are testing the next higher resistance at 155-10. Closing back under 154-14 would start to signal another reversal down forming.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s probe under Friday’s low down to 46.87 was shallower than would have been optimal for forming a bottom. But it held nonetheless, and now Tuesday afternoon is attacking Monday’s 48.07 high. That’s also nearing the gap back up to Thursday’s 48.15 sell signal. Its recovery would confirm momentum is reversing up, but there should be little if any delay.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday confirms a bottom hasn’t yet formed. That seems counter-intuitive considering the strength, but its sponsorship is weak-handed since it leaves outstanding a gap below wanting to be filled. Neutralizing its attraction would allow a recovery.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 7, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Other than the usual momentary correlation between Crude Oil and equities that may be seen during every Wednesday EIA report, none of Wednesday’s is high-profile, let alone has a track record for influencing price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2435.75 | 2435.00 |
| …would target | 2440.75 | 2440.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2428.75 | 2428.00 |
| …would target | 2423.25 | 2422.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.