S&P
Post-open Review… Pyrrhic victory.
Bias-down avoided, struggling to exploit it.
The overnight test of the 2426.50 bias-down signal is clearly relevant. Piercing it by only an errant tick triggered the next bounce in an otherwise single-minded overnight decline. That 3-point bounce reacted down post-open, but stopped optimistically short of touching the pre-open low, and the bias-down target.
Was the single-minded overnight decline done? The post-open dip recovered to attack the 2432.00 bias-down signal as resistance. Then it was tested by 3 ticks. Another reaction down was recovered to fresh highs at 2434.25. Meanwhile, 2432.00 was recovered at 10:15 to trigger “no-bias.”
All of the chipping away at 2432.00 into and out of 10:15 and 10:30 hasn’t produced a break higher. In fact, 2431.00 was just touched. Again. Perhaps that dip only reflects anxiousness as a potential terror attack is reported at Notre Dame. Perhaps a similar inhibition has been preventing a recovery, since there were earlier reports from London Bridge.
At some point, even the strongest-handed buyers will let weak-handed sellers have the lower price that convinces them to buy. And the delay in testing 2426.50 would likely probe lower to 2424.25 or 2421.25.
Regardless, only an offsetting test of this morning’s 2438.25 bias-up signal will be in-play. I suspect any fresh highs would likely extend to new highs. Testing the bias-down target overnight and only attacking it post-open don’t qualify for also putting into play an offsetting test of its bias-up target. But new highs would be likely, anyway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The pullback begins. And ends?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s new high close did not extend any higher Sunday night, which had dipped to test Monday morning’s 2433.50 bias-down signal. The open’s gap down tested it, too, and held it, putting into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2440.00 bias-up signal. It would be attacked to within 1 point, which is within 1 tick of officially neutralizing its attraction. The balance of the session ranged sideways, narrowing around unchanged at 2437.50. A last-minute dip attacked the morning’s lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last-minute dip extended through the morning’s lows, gradually but relentlessly. And single-mindedly. It just tested this morning’s 2426.50 bias-down signal. This level was first seen as Thursday afternoon’s bias-up target, met during that window’s high. It was last seen during the next morning’s pre-open and post-open dips that absorbed the Employment Situation report’s reaction, resolving up to new highs.
If, then…
The laurel-resting continues, as the requirement for at least one more new high close allows sellers to expend their energy without reversing the trend down. Somehow recovering to avoid triggering this morning’s bias-down would target new highs today. One-way single-minded overnight declines often do end abruptly at the open. Meanwhile, the pullback’s likely objective is 2421.50, and recovering its test to close back above 2428.00 would indicate the pullback had ended. Otherwise, it could extend back down to the prior upside target of 2415.00. Regardless of how deep and for how long the pullback were to extend and persist, the context remains just that, a pullback likely to resolve up.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2428.75 would be likely to trigger the 2432.00 bias-down signal at 10:30. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2424.25 would be likely also not to recover the 2426.50 bias-down target by 10:30, renewing the bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s market tour it looks like little game Chicken here yesterday afternoon yesterday actually warnings in the morning Mornings in the morning Thrilla in Manila warnings in the morning that despite there being an upside of jective despite not extending down the opens gap which was a retest of the overnight low by the way the overnight low and the opens gap down both holding a test of the bias down signal 3350 precisely in fact that Post open and that put into play it on Steam test of the bicep signal at 2440 which was attacked only to it than a tech and only by the sake of a couple of errant text so it’s tough to give that credibility for having been neutralized other than the subsequent price action of course but even then that was just so close to the prior clothes that’s not going to be the bias up signal anyway it’s disqualified from serving in that capacity so that is 39 so we do consider their to be unfinished business above the 2440 via sub signal from yesterday morning obviously not a controlling factor in the near-term trending especially the longer that that was delayed in testing it and it was the warning that I continually issued yesterday that the market may have decided to enter into a multi-session pull back or maybe unable to fulfill the up side or the unfinished business above that was in existence before yesterday’s open unfinished business in existence being a new trend Thursday afternoon Thursday afternoon Rue 1015 lot of time available for that that’s it for the pool back that’s not likely in this setup but a lot of selling pressure is being expended overnight without gaining any sponsorship for the effort so it is possible not likely likely or is that we do test Post open the lower prioritize remember the major downside potential is 224 likely is 24 2125 if there were or 2150 there were a downside move pullback multi-session delay to producing a fresh clothes the 24 2150 was the likely objective so just wouldn’t be surprised to see that included in whatever this morning has in store if it doesn’t hold if we’re going to the overnight so far it has and needs to today clothes back under 7445 there is unfinished business below that really wants to be retested similar pattern in the loony took a long time to come gold not rejecting that all this break higher the failed ascending triangle was overcome and now not only is 1287 Bing exceeded its been exceeded up to 1296 another which is right away taking out another 12 9640 precisely getting involved all the way up to another higher objective look at this on the bigger picture later thank you look at your picture and you can see what is being tested here can’t see the chart anymore the bars but it’s not likely that just touching the top or not the same time Top what’s the parallel here’s another indication of why won’t be tolerated on this pattern if it’s trying to buy them that’s crude oil API reports after today’s close and then Natural Gas there’s no signs of a bottom it’s not him here but no signal gas.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2439.00 | 2438.25 |
| …would target | 2444.00 | 2443.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2432.50 | 2432.00 |
| …would target | 2427.25 | 2426.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNALr | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Entering Monday’s noon hour so optimistically is precisely what had suggested it wouldn’t extend higher. Or, that extending higher would be doomed to failure. I would have preferred the latter. The former only narrowed its range since then from 3-1/2 points to 1-1/2 points.
Avoiding a probe of fresh highs had made the pattern increasingly vulnerable to launching a multi-session correction. Not yet declining by the final hour had made a fresh high obligatory. Not required, but suddenly likely, and still likely to fail. That didn’t happen either.
Dipping into the close remained within the range. And like entering the noon hour optimistically, the late timing suggests its price action wasn’t sponsored by strong hands. Extending down Tuesday would be credible only if begun immediately, and without holding any test of support. Otherwise, “unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2440.00 bias objective remains outstanding, as does a higher close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday suggested that Friday’s close above 1.1255 was not actually resuming the rally. Closing under 1.1235 would confirm, by signaling momentum is reversing down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh highs Monday on geopolitical concerns in the Gulf didn’t run higher, and the session ultimately tested April’s “higher prior lows” around 1284.00. Closing higher Tuesday — if not just avoiding a negative close — would suggest a probe above April’s highs is underway.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s probe above Friday’s high qualifies somewhat as a breakout. Simply avoiding a reversal down Tuesday would make the 17.90 attraction above likely to be tested next, regardless of the pattern’s ultimate resolution.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled its longstanding target in the 154-00 area on Friday — and then extending well beyond it through the close — there is room for a pullback to test 154-00 as support. If tested, then trapping shorts would be a function of its reversal. The more abrupt and substantial, the likelier that new highs are in-play.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Geopolitical unrest in the Gulf triggered overnight gains but they were retraced entirely into negative territory. Monday’s dip under Friday’s lows didn’t extend, perhaps a little too shallowly to be confident that shorts are trapped, but not still credible for a bottom if Tuesday were to follow-through with the reversal. Otherwise, the downtrend remains intact.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Momentarily probing a fresh low Monday down to 2.93 doesn’t change whether a bottom is forming, because the selling pressure was too nominal to have trapped shorts, despite recovering into positive territory. There is no new signal..