S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2440.75 | 2440.00 |
| …would target | 2447.00 | 2446.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2434.25 | 2433.50 |
| …would target | 2429.00 | 2428.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report retraced all of Thursday night’s extension of Wednesday afternoon’s rally. But only all of it, back down to its 2428.75 low. Post-open action held its test, too, remaining in the orbit of the 2437.25 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.” The overnight high was attacked to within 1 tick during the afternoon bias environment. Probing it into the position-squaring window attacked 2440.00, before settling back down under 2436.00.
The second consecutive close above 2424.25 puts into play 2447.50 and potentially 2455.25. Also, new trend extreme closes on Fridays all but require an eventual new extreme close. So, reversing down immediately on Monday would be likely to recover at some point. Reversing down would have room down to 2421.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us in the morning at 9:30 ET for the Saturday Review. Links will be sent overnight.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The Employment Situation report triggered a modest gap up that probed above 1.1255 but didn’t extend higher intraday. This threatens the outstanding deeper corrective dip potential, but only if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report triggered a surge that filled the gap back to Wednesday’s 1275.00 close as was required. The test extended higher to attack 1282.00, which was not required. The failed Ascending Triangle pattern can’t afford any further hesitation to resolve down under 1268.50, instead of extending to 1296.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back up Friday filled the gap from Wednesday’s close, although that wasn’t necessary. Not reversing down immediately through Monday’s close could instead extend higher to 17.90.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having rested Thursday, Friday was required to resume the rally still targeting 154-02. It was probed by more than 1 point, closing higher. No unfinished business above remains outstanding, but this is not a topping pattern capable of anything more bearish than a corrective dip.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday bounce to “kiss” Wednesday’s 48.20 sell signal resolved down overnight to 46.75, but mostly firmed intraday. The three-day sequence creates a setup that could form a durable bottom if a fresh low on Monday were to close positive.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already having fulfilled the third lower close required by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, Friday only ranged narrowly at lows. The pattern is still not forming a bottom, or any less likely to probe fresh lows.
Mid-day Update… Holding up.
Noon hour hovers at the highs.
Treating this morning’s invalidated no-bias as a late bias-up paid off. Its 2435.75 bias-up target was met. Also, last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” has been attacked to within 1 tick. Stopping pessimistically short has helped to avoid reacting down. The noon hour has instead hovered narrowly at the highs.
Back under 2433.25 would still be credible for reversing the trend down (or at least for trying). Regardless, trending down into the weekend should have been obvious going into the afternoon bias environment, which it was not. Already deteriorating into the bias environment exit would get a benefit of the doubt.
Meanwhile, don’t forget about the Friday Factors. Exiting the afternoon bias environment at session highs can indicate that sellers are marginalized for the day. Shorting fresh afternoon highs at that point can prove very costly.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 5, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week kicks off with a busy econ calendar. But although several of the items are high-profile, none have a reliable track record for influencing price action.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET