S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2438.75 | 2437.75 |
| …would target | 2444.50 | 2443.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2431.25 | 2430.50 |
| …would target | 2425.25 | 2424.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Cooling its jets.
Absorbing a reaction down into and out of payrolls.
The overnight retest of the 2435.75 overnight high had touched 2437.25. But only briefly before reacting back down into the range. And then through it in reaction to the Employment Situation report. 
The 2428.75 overnight low held its pre-open test.
After printing a fresh trend high overnight, exiting the open under the overnight low essentially reverses momentum down. Actually attempting it and not succeeding can have the opposite effect. Post-open probing under 2428.75 was all too poorly-timed to be sponsored by strong hands.
Buyers aren’t much stronger. They didn’t trigger the 2430.50 bias-up signal, and not for lack of trying. The grace period wasn’t invoked due to 1-tick’s difference when it mattered. Ultimately recovering bias-up through 10:30 invalidated the no-bias. Had the grace period triggered, this would be a late bias-up, targeting 2435.75.
The 2437.25 overnight high is a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires retest intraday, often the same day. Making it through the noon hour without yet testing it or rejecting the post-open rally could then extend higher into the weekend. Closing negative today would be signaled back under 2429.50.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Following-through.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Thursday to the 2415.00-2417.00 prior highs, but not through them, wasn’t enough to resume Wednesday’s late rally. But the morning only consolidated instead of reversing down. And the bias environment exit launched a rally that extended through the close. The afternoon bias environment consolidated between the next higher objective of 2424.25 and its 2426.50 bias-up target. The position-squaring window resumed the rally to 2430.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially fluctuating +/- 1 point soon resolved up to probe new highs at this morning’s 2435.75 bias-up target. A narrow 2-point range persisted into and out of Europe’s opens. A brief dip to 2433.00 was easily digested, and now fresh highs are testing 2437.25. This is a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest, often the same day.
If, then…
The past week’s narrow range was an unstable platform to launch another upleg. Nevertheless, its next higher objective above 2415.00 was 2424.25. Closing above 2424.25 has put into play the next higher objective, subject to being confirmed by a second consecutive higher close today. Closing higher today would also trigger a Friday Factor, further entrenching the uptrend. Meanwhile, this pattern remains vulnerable to abrupt reversals, which is where last week’s unstable platform gains extra relevance. Of course the rally is steep and alluring — it’s in its Satchel Paige phase, and can’t look back for fear of what might be gaining on it. Even without confirming yesterday’s breakout, there’s room down to 2421.50 before reversing the trend down, but one likely follows the other. Especially if the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” is neutralized first, which may be delayed if this breakout attempt proves overly optimistic ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2431.50 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2430.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2437.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2435.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2443.75. Exiting the open under 2428.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market or it is the last day of the week Friday it is a holiday shortened week or was almost that’s it for that until Friday by the only one okay so interesting influences but all I can say right now and and I mean that all I can say right now is that tomorrow at the Saturday review we’re going to have a lot of interesting things to review as far as price action this week how it relates to the methodology and we’re not finished this morning is going to be very interesting maybe the entire session reason I can’t say more is because there’s so much to cover let’s just not let’s talk about what the possibilities are we have a huge rally that started yesterday as soon as the bias apartment started laughing when the opens Gap up and wasn’t even much of a gap up and really shouldn’t even keep referring to it like that but didn’t Gap up above the entirety of 24 1517 had proved it pre open where I had pre open and then dipped back down or least stretched the entirety of the Gap up Gap up requirement until the morning didn’t react down that didn’t stretch the band as it had Wednesday which stop short of the 2399 lower prize that would have done two things would have completed a correction the very narrow range prior to that so it’s correction didn’t need to be substantial it also would have been made this week long basing what turns out to be in there all range instead because it never really corrected or fully corrected didn’t even fill out standing gaps and Cetera makes this a very unstable base to try a launching the resumption of the bull market and this continues to be a market phase that is extremely vulnerable too abrupt reversals Rally’s of its trend so I put those two things together things this morning Wednesday morning Wednesday look for noise above it was to 2428 which was tested through the clothes and probed extended and now exceeded there’s 24 3575 initially test overnight that happened to be this morning’s bias up Target pull back or covers to a fresh High 3575 still alive attractive attracting price that’s a lot of optimism ahead of report of such weight that is normally approached more cautiously coming off of a narrow otherwise unstable base and Market that is at a phase that remains vulnerable highly vulnerable to reversals of its trend lot riding on today lot riding on not just the open before the open the reaction the employment report and the clothes because otherwise this was yesterday this was a break out from a multi-session range Pro blower on Wednesday but closed back in the rain today next day to fill that Gap back to Tuesday’s close yapping down yesterday to support silver long with gold was right at support in really had a lot of potential to bounce from there and they both did silver didn’t have to fill this Gap we talk about this didn’t have to fill the Gap back to Wednesday’s close just testing higher Prairie loses fine the Gap at Tuesday’s close is not above all prioritize within the range just coming back to within the range neutralizes its attraction and now overnight slipping a little back under 1708 back under 1708 at this stage I should be the qualification to resume the rally hours into the client’s right it’s basically.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2431.50 | 2430.50 |
| …would target | 2436.75 | 2435.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2423.50 | 2422.50 |
| …would target | 2418.00 | 2417.00 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s late breakout left outstanding unfinished business below at 2408.00. Extending higher fulfilled the next higher objective above 2415.00 which had been defining the past week’s ranging. Probing intraday above 2424.25 was still being tested as support through the entire afternoon’s bias environment and final hour. That is, until the position-squaring window, which momentarily probed the room for noise at 2428.00 by 10 ticks. Confirming the close on Friday would put into play substantially higher objectives.
The afternoon’s ranging up to the afternoon’s 2426.50 bias-up target wasn’t an optimal or decisive break above 2424.25, not until the final minutes that surged aggressively. And optimistically ahead of payrolls. So, closing higher again for confirmation would be helpful — not for the next objective’s setup, but for being a new trend high close on a Friday. There’s otherwise no intraday timing required for actually trending back down, but trending back down is the likely bearish setup, and not just avoiding confirmation above 2424.25.
The impending pre-open Employee Situation report was an excellent opportunity for cautious backing-and-filling. Instead, the report is being greeted optimistically, and vulnerable to a knee-jerk reaction down or to rejecting a knee-jerk reaction up. Regardless, a top won’t be indicated without closing back within the past week’s range.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.