S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding the bearish pattern’s 11255 bounce limit Wednesday resolved by gapping down Thursday, but not deteriorating much intraday despite being free to resume the decline and leave no “unfinished business above.”
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding overnight and back into the failed Ascending Triangle gapped down $10 to prove the relevance of 1277.00 resistance that was attacked Wednesday to within 2 dimes. Probing a little lower intraday was recovered back above the open, which suggests that filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1265.00 close will try to inhibit the pattern’s collapse.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down sharply overnight once proved that Wednesday’s intraday recovery had held resistance and neutralized the upside attraction by filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. The overnight low held post-open retests that launched an intraday recovery. Friday’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength for having a gap outstanding above.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sill no reason to much delay extending higher, although Wednesday’s rally did create some room for constructive backing-and-filling. An overnight dip essentially held “lower prior highs” and recovered back up to the opening print, but no higher intraday as the balance of the session ranged.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Back under 48.15 would have resumed the decline. But Thursday’s reaction to the delayed EIA report was more intent to test the 49.25 sell signal as resistance, if not also to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 49.65 close. Closing above 49.85 would still be credible foe launching a rally.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive sessions of probing sharply lower fresh lows and bouncing shallowly overnight into Thursday’s open didn’t prevent a negative knee-jerk reaction to the EIA report from probing under 3.00. The confirmed breakout’s minimum third lower close requirement is satisfied, but no bottom is forming.
Mid-day Update… Blow-out.
Noon hour rally, target nearly met.
This morning’s 2416.50 bias-up signal held through 10:15 to avoid triggering, which put into play an offsetting test of its 2408.00 bias-down signal. Never happened. In fact, the opening 15 minutes 2412.75 low was never touched again.
2416.50 still defined the bias environment’s upper-end. Until it started lapsing. Then a breakout compensated for its delay. Another 2 points were added between the noon hour exit to 2425.50, and the afternoon bias environment entry at 1:30. It has improved to within 3 ticks of the 2426.50 bias-up target.
Reversing down immediately is possible. This pattern’s top remains vulnerable if not also likely to appear abrupt in retrospect. That turn could take a little more time to develop than this, but it’s not required. Meanwhile, closing today above 2424.25 (and confirmed tomorrow) would signal a much bigger rally leg underway — despite the recent narrow range not forming an optimal base.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 2, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Econ reports were squeezed into the remaining sessions of this holiday-shortened week. But not Friday, which often seems reserved for monthly payrolls. In any case, the report being announced simultaneously has no track record for influencing price action.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2421.50 | 2420.50 |
| …would target | 2427.25 | 2426.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2415.25 | 2414.50 |
| …would target | 2409.00 | 2408.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Only a modest stretch.
Gap up’s reaction doesn’t collapse.
Yesterday’s pre-open rally had served to stretch the rubber band for post-open action to snap back down. Gapping up to and through prior highs would have trended up, but not extending higher only collapsed.
Today’s gap up to prior highs had touched the 2416.50 bias-up signal 1 minute before the open. Its reaction down to 2412.75 was retraced entirely, and probed the bias-up signal by 1 point. The test held again, despite this morning’s econ reports disagreeing with yesterday’s, which had been the catalyst to its collapse.
Now, too late to trigger, the 2416.50 bias-up signal has been touched, and not recovered through 10:30. Which doesn’t undermine that an offsetting test of the 2408.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Back under 2413.50 would start to signal that leg underway.
Resuming the decline would also mean fresh lows targeting a test of “lower prior highs” at 2399.00. Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report will inhibit trending attempts more extensive than that, whether up or down. Rallying first, anyway — with only yesterday’s brief dip behind it — isn’t likely to extend, either.