S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… An eerie calm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s pre-open rally had extended from 2410.50 to attack 2417.00. But the open gapped up only to the 2315.00 prior highs, which wasn’t maintained, let alone extended. The alternative path was to plunge through Tuesday’s test of 2408.50, which had been thoroughly chipped away. So, the first half-hour slid to 2402.75. Stopping optimistically short of last Wednesday’s close sufficed to end the morning’s selling. Consolidating into the final hour surged to 2410.50 at the cash session’s close, and to 2415.00 through the futures close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The post-close surge above 2410.50 wasn’t retraced immediately, but it was retraced eventually at Asia’s opens. And then it was recovered. Recovered, not for the purpose of extending Wednesday’s late rally, but to attack its late highs up to 2414.50. So, except for that one dip, overnight action has held a narrow 2-1/2 point range — and certainly not trended. Not, yet.
If, then…
Yesterday needed the rubber band stretched overnight to be the catalyst for snapping back down through the open. That’s helpful in launching a downleg. No rubber band is needed for resuming that downleg this morning, since yesterday’s fresh low wasn’t recovered back above a prior high. So, unless gapping up above prior highs at 2415.00-2417.00, the pattern remains vulnerable to collapsing back into the downleg targeting “lower prior highs” at 2399.00. This morning’s econ calendar is busy — including the influential ADP report — ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2417.75 would be likely to trigger the 2416.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2413.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2410.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2408.00 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome its June Thursday Thursday June one time for the morning Market or holiday-shortened week and so this is as usual the second the last day of the week but it’s only the third day of the week just got over the hump yesterday and some hump we got overlooked it at the pre open Action really the overnight action ahead of yesterday’s open had rained very nearly and only a couple hours before they open at the low or a lift off of some sort or attempt Bennett been tried or a tribe an attempted depending on your perspective so it got out to the point that the open really had no excuse not to Gap up above the prior sessions High which was the minimum requirement and then some sub requirements following that maintaining it extending it that would have had the opposite effect of what did happen which was not maintaining not extending collapsed and that’s what we expected it collapse not just to the priorities low but through it because it had been sufficiently took the way yesterday or the prior day and week in fact and it was broke and didn’t Trend an Consolidated at or under what was being tested previously at 24850 which in the bigger picture is last Thursday’s Gap up 2408 50 the opening print that is always going to be natural support resistance little over used in this case the dip got just as low as it could for only a short as it could be before or before touching a lower Pryor High and bouncing notice that touch the lower Pryor High and bounced that 24850 would want to be if there had been no bounce if the drop it extended to 2399 which is still targeting From Below because otherwise the end of the day what influence on the price action ATP is reliable for getting a reaction price reaction so maybe we do greet thee open gapping up if it doesn’t start pretty soon if it hasn’t already started it is kind of late to suddenly get new sponsorship in here to clear that distance and to sustain I mean this is what happens when it’s too late or what can happen that breakout attempt from a relatively narrow range pretty late and pretty and complete so same thing here only yesterday remember needed that Catalyst of stretching the rubber band to snap back down for that pattern we don’t need that Catalyst today this pattern doesn’t require stretching the rubber band before snapping back down I’m going to snap back down before collapsing and collapses entirely possible coming out of the open keep that in mind we do have Post open and reports as well that are reliably influential the price action PMI Manufacturing Index at 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing Index at 10 those two are typically reliable for influencing price action construction spending also coming out at 10 not reliable but for influencing price action but coming out simultaneously to the is M perhaps so if we don’t Gap up it doesn’t mean that we’re going to collapse it just means we’re likely to collapse at least very vulnerable to it and it is possible to and immediately we knew it was going to retest The Falls breakouts High and the objective for that would be 77 – 7825 yeah it got within or two dimes yesterday of that 77 objective and it’s already were tracing back down to 6740 so back under that false breakout High not yet under the upper end of that triangle whose break would confirm the false break is done and momentum has a verse down but we got a proxy and just dipping under 6 925-6952 specially closing under it suggests the rubber band has been stretched and here’s the issue is that with leave outstanding a gap back to yesterday’s clothes that wants to be filled so prefer to see that filled first otherwise we’re probably just looking at a corrective dip the correction can be pretty substantial as it is but prefer for patterned which other night so that tells me pawsitive knee-jerk reaction probably briefly though if it does any questions please .
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2417.50 | 2416.50 |
| …would target | 2422.50 | 2421.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2409.00 | 2408.00 |
| …would target | 2402.50 | 2401.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Firming into Wednesday afternoon’s bias environment already had started suggesting sellers were done. Not only for probing higher, but also for the probe’s timing. The 2404.25 bias-down signal was hardly attacked, and tested only after being too late to trigger. More so, that was in reaction to new from the Beige Book release.
Rallying through the position-squaring window recovered to unchanged. Overlapping unchanged around 2411.00 into the cash session close was then probed through the futures close up to 1 point above last Thursday and Friday’s 2413.75 closes. It’s not very different from Tuesday’s drop being recovered to unchanged, and probing it only when it didn’t matter.
Wednesday’s recovery was probably inhibited by not having dipped deeply enough. The 2402.75 low stopped at least 1 tick optimistically short of actually filling the week-old cash session gap, and at least 1 points short of the futures close. Potential to “lower prior highs” at 2399.00 remains alive. Extending higher Thursday requires the same setup, gapping up above prior highs — now 2415.00-2417.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight and firming post-open tested the 1.1255 bounce limit Wednesday, which must hold to maintain potential for another downleg to the next lower corrective target at 1.10995. Above 1.1285 would start signaling another upleg underway.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday instead of extending Tuesday’s gap down all but ensured retesting Friday’s high up to 1277.00-1278.25 before the Ascending Triangle pattern can collapse. Extending higher intraday attacked the bounce target’s lower-end.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s out-performance was offset by greeting Wednesday baking-and-filling. Ultimately, the session closed flat, not confirming the rally is intact.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a 1-11 discount to Jun] With still no bullish excuse to delay extending the rally effort, Tuesday night’s backing-and-filling was recovered ahead of Wednesday’s open and extended to fresh highs through the morning, still targeting 154-02.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Touching both ends of the 49.25 and 49.85 range Tuesday had failed to trigger trending either way. Wednesday’s pre-open slide resolved the delay by gapping down and trending lower through the morning to test 47.75. A second consecutive lower close on Thursday would confirm at least an eventual third lower close outstanding.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s break under 3.30 extended down sharply Wednesday to 3.06, compensating for the delay in finally fulfilling the longstanding objective. Regardless of its degree, the second consecutive lower close from a multi-session range confirms the breakout, and now requires at least one more eventual lower close.
Mid-day Update… Don’t get too comfortable.
Range-bound ahead of the 2:00 Beige Book release.
The first half-hour’s 12-point dive to fresh relative lows at 2402.75 has since consolidated. The 2410.50 minimum likely bounce target was attacked to within 1 tick. The narrowing range has formed a Symmetrical Triangle centered just under 2408.50.
This is a no-bias environment. Trending under its 2404.25 bias-down signal is unlikely, and would be called “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. So, back under 2405.75 would could still test “lower prior highs” at 2399.00, while being likely to recover.
Breaking lower after the bias environment starts lapsing would still be capable of recovering from 2399.00. But it’s recovery wouldn’t be required, which makes it less likely. Fresh lows can be avoided altogether by rallying out of the bias environment above 2410.50.