S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2405.50 | 2404.00 |
| …would target | 2411.00 | 2409.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2397.75 | 2396.25 |
| …would target | 2392.50 | 2391.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s blip-up was retraced back into Tuesday’s range. But not under it, despite holding the 2399.00 bias-up signal’s test and putting into play an offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-down signal. It turned into a “dry cleaners morning” that never broke either way.
Not that this was surprising, since not gapping up or immediately extending higher already had foreclosed upon trending up. And not breaking either way beyond Tuesday afternoon’s range had meant remaining within it.
The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes compounded the constraint. Reaction to the news did trigger a false break down to 2396.00 that rebounded to probe fresh highs at 2402.00 into the bias environment exit. Extending higher to 2404.00 was poorly timed, and gained no traction for its effort.
Other than 2391.00, unfinished business below is 2388.75, which is relatively modest compared to last week’s trend change that requires a close under 2351.50. Already retesting last week’s highs isn’t prohibited from extending to 2415.00. But the context is temporary, so upward moves should be very steep until the high is in.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. A connectivity issue unrelated to Adobe prevented recording the Wrap.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t reassert the uptrend, which price action through Tuesday had suggested was topping and at least ready to correct back down.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s post-close dip to 1252.00 was probed overnight but then retested Wednesday morning. Closing under would confirm the bounce is not extending higher.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After failing to confirm Monday’s breakout attempt, Tuesday night’s dip filled the gap back down to last Wednesday’s Island. It was largely recovered before the open, but not reversed up, leaving no signal.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
With little excuse to further delay resuming the rally to 155-13, Wednesday’s initial dip to the range’s lower-end could have been defensive posturing ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC minutes release. The reaction didn’t extend up, so the patern still needs positive close to at least confirm the basing intends to resolve up.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s close ultimately did fulfill the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for at least one fresh high close. That greeted Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength, which reacted up to a fresh high at 51.88. The gain was retraced through the close, suggesting the upside momentum had lapsed.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s immediate break under 3.21 was recovered to avoid confirming the target at 3.11 and lower is again underway.
Mid-day Update… Calm before the calm.
Extremely narrow range.
The open’s blip-up to 2400.50 reacted down immediately to 2397.50, and then eventually to 2396.75. Ultimately, the 2399.00 bias-up signal holding its test put into play an offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-down signal. That has become “unfinished business below.”
It’s difficult to snap back down without first popping up vigorously. So, it’s difficult to give the downside attractions — including 2393.50 — much near-term credibility. The minimum structural requirement was fulfilled by probing yesterday’s high, for however briefly. But sponsorship is missing all around.
FOMC Minutes will be released shortly. It might be the catalyst for triggering trending, or for triggering a false break that does snap back in the opposite direction. Any trending that begins during this afternoon’s no-bias environment is likely to be retraced.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 25, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar is actually very light on influential reports, but Jobless Claims is high-profile. The mid-morning Fed speaker does offer potential for influencing price action.
Neel Kashkari Speaks
Wed 6:00 PM ET
Robert Kaplan Speaks
Wed 6:00 PM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Lael Brainard Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET