S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2402.50 | 2401.00 |
| …would target | 2408.00 | 2406.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2397.25 | 2395.75 |
| …would target | 2392.00 | 2390.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up, but held down.
Blip-up retraces back into the range.
Trending up this morning all but required gapping up. For starters. The open overlapped yesterday’s highs down to 2399.25 and touched a fresh high at 2400.50. Extending higher would have been credible, but was prevented by reacting down 3 points.
Which made dipping back down to the range’s 2395.00 lows likelier. Probably down to 2393.50. And also an offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-down signal, having held a test of the 2399.00 bias-up signal.
That barely tested 2397.00 before bouncing again to retest the 2399.00 bias-up signal. Recovering it through 10:30 would have invalidated that it had held at 10:15. Trending up this morning would still be possible, but still not durably without gapping up.
2399.00 wasn’t recovered at 10:30. Still overlapping it doesn’t qualify for invalidating no-bias. The 2391.00 may be left outstanding to become “unfinished business below.” But potential to briefly probe fresh highs up to 2405.00 can’t be dismissed.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The range persists.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up above Monday’s ~2394.00 highs was shallow, resisted by week-old “higher prior lows”and a week-old gap around 2397.00. That resistance was being tested at the close, after session highs had twice pierced 2399.00. Not much of a slope — in fact, Tuesday was the fourth consecutive session of closing higher than the open, while intraday range continued to shrink to 8 points from 24 points last Thursday. The afternoon ranged just short of touching the morning’s high, without resolving down. “Unfinished business below” was left outstanding at 2388.75.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower shallow ranging essentially held tests of yesterday afternoon’s attacks on 2395.00. Europe’s opens sparked a rally back up to yesterday’s highs testing 2399.00. But price contineus returning to 2397.00.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s range still hasn’t been rejected, adding to the potential for probing a fresh high. This would only stretch the rubber band tighter after last Wednesday’s confirmed trend reversal. That has now been fully retraced to its 2397.00 origin, with two days spent exclusively back above the original 2379.00 signal. Being Wednesday ahead of a three-day weekend, today is vulnerable to a steep reversal of the prevailing trend. Probing fresh highs intraday without gapping up would be vulnerable to an afternoon collapse. Gapping up to probe fresh highs wouldn’t be entirely safe, but would at least open the door to an afternoon squeeze.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2401.00 would be likely to trigger the 2399.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2397.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday at Stanford Wednesdays Morning Market to or not a lot going on overnight would you actually doesn’t mean much last night it just doesn’t we had a signal that tried triggering yesterday afternoon 98 touch too late and yesterday’s clothes to be influential accept his resistance which is persisted overnight finally getting that chance after your UPS opens proud of that not much stress on support yes afternoon Angelo’s had been probed basically 9650 was that inflection point also overlapped overnight and ever actually broken 2395 testing for 75 in case that can be anticipation ahead of it or in a bishon because of it so be aware it to is the fomc minutes finally I’m in the one other thing to point out is we had a trend change signal on Thursday I’m sorry Wednesday and if you look then we go there’s the trend change signal reversing from a fresh new fresh hide back under the last relative low closing and not recovering it the next day Trent change which requires her to be at least an eventual other lower clothes fresh low close in this case not just another clothes under that trench and signals or something under 2351 5150 that is out there because this is a confirmed Trend change in the interim prices only rally back to the origin of that Trend Trend change leg that’s all it’s done is retraced hasn’t done anything that hadn’t been done already now the one thing that suggests there is going to be a higher hi at some point is that each of these sessions kind of cooling the ranges each intraday range is shrinking versus the prior range 24 points back here with 17 points 9.7 or 8 point I think is the numbers and that’s wild trending each of these sessions closes above its open so kind Cooling and other words not just those data but also that it’s creeping higher and higher to resistance and that often resolved by almost literally exploding higher and even if it does what’s important is how that closes and almost literally exploding higher here well that could follow through and do a more substantial or sustained leg there’s another element involved specific to this particular timing that could speak very differently to that resolution in other words this is Wednesday a head of a three-day holiday weekend and if there’s going to be any big Trend kicked off or big correction made this is when it’s done has to be done typically by today not always in fact the last three day holiday weekend and didn’t the last three day holiday weekend just extend it but if this is going to go with a more traditional pattern than a it’s vulnerable to almost literally exploding higher remember Post open can almost literally explode higher like from yesterday afternoon and they overnight we’ve just been ranging sideways if I’m going to almost literally explode hi we’re going to do it right away so be ready for that if that happens again is 2405 may be tough to come by to help support corrective got a gap down here at 1 1115 maybe even lower prioritize down here 11010 so it’s been a pretty productive by signal but it’s really maxed itself out not that this can’t range or fluctuate a little bit above up here first but it’s a little late to get vald to the upside veloute looking for its pull back corrective go back at least the pound got to hold about 120 972 maintain potential to at least one more higher high then the Aussie back under 7465 closing back under 7465 what at least suggest upside momentum is lapsed as far as the cell signal that would it be sufficient but another is back under these lower otherwise.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2400.50 | 2399.00 |
| …would target | 2406.25 | 2405.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2392.25 | 2391.00 |
| …would target | 2386.00 | 2384.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s gap up touched the 2397.00 “higher prior low.” Its test was likely to hold, which it did. Reversing down avoided triggering bias-up, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2388.75 bias-down signal. Which was never touched.
Bias-up wasn’t invalidated, although the morning was spent hovering there. So 2388.75 becomes “unfinished business below.”
Rallying into the noon hour to 2399.50 was never revisited intraday. Its reaction down formed a range that persisted through the close. Sellers failed through two timing windows to reverse down, suggesting the consequence of probing a fresh high. Stopping pessimistically short of the high suggests it will be probed considerably.
Only gapping down or extending down aggressively can avoid at least probing fresh highs, presumably to 2401.00, if not also trending to new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.