S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap back up to Monday’s open (circled green) is not arbitrary, since the interim low touched Friday’s “lower prior highs” (red highlight). Now a corrective drop may begin forming, if not a top.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap and test of Wednesday’s high didn’t extend higher Tuesday, and held 1261.50 “higher prior lows” (circled green). But now more relevant than 1256.00 support is the 1252.00 
inflection point whose break would launch a new downleg.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday morning initially extended Monday’s break above last Wednesday’s high, but only temporarily as the session dipped back into negative territory. Not confirming the break would be unusual in this pattern, and consequently bearish. Otherwise, the pattern may begin behaving as if May’s retraced dip has sealed a bottom.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Last Wednesday’s 154-12 high was touched again for the first time since the intervening consolidation. Its break would signal the 155-13 objective above is in-play. There is little excuse to further delay the rally.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
While Monday’s confirmation of Friday’s breakout now requires at least a third eventual higher close, Tuesday did not so much extend the rally as sustained it. There is potential for extending to test 53.00.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s attack of 3.34 “higher prior lows” to within a penny reacted down Tuesday, testing 3.25. Its break would signal the decline targeting fresh lows under 3.11 and lower is underway.
Mid-day Update… Magnetic attraction.
Resistance is holding, and being retested .
This morning’s 2396.25 bias-up signal was being probed at 10:30, but not exceeded by enough to invalidate having signaled no-bias at 10:15.
The balance of the bias environment tested 2396.25 as resistance. Never enough to by become “no-bias trending,” but neither was it rejected. The offsetting test of this morning’s 2388.75 bias-down signal is “unfinished business below.”
That didn’t prevent probing fresh highs into noon. Attacking this afternoon’s 2399.75 bias-up signal was reversed to attack 2395.00. This is a no-bias environment, too.
Fresh highs would have room up to 2401.00, if not also to probe it, while still being vulnerable to reversing down sharply.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 24, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s three housing sector data follow Tuesday morning’s report. Although none are reliable for influencing price action, multiple reports offer potential for contradicting each other, or for one report being out of range. Any clear reaction is likely to be duplicated in reaction to PMI, if not also by the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
Patrick Harker Speaks
Tue 5:00 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2401.25 | 2399.75 |
| …would target | 2406.25 | 2405.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2395.50 | 2394.25 |
| …would target | 2390.25 | 2388.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back-to-backing-and-filling?
Gap up reacts back down. Which reacts back up.
Yesterday’s rally didn’t gain traction for its efforts. So, gapping up above yesterday’s highs was the only way to rally credibly this morning. Gapping up, and extending.
But the gap up held its test of 2397.00 “higher prior lows” and reacted down.
Natural support was found upon filling the gap back to yesterday’s 2392.50 close. RSIs diverged positively, producing a bounce that failed to recover the 2395.25 bias-up signal.
This is a no-bias environment. Holding a test of the bias-up signal put into play an offsetting test of the 2388.75 bias-down signal.
That objective below is became suspect when the bounce tested the 2395.25 bias-up signal. By 3 ticks. But still overlapping it at 10:30 failed to invalidate what was triggered cleanly and timely at 10:15.
That said, beware of being short above 2396.00, because the bounce’s rejection isn’t optimal. Back under 2394.00 would signal the break lower has resumed.