S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s “inside day” held above the 1.0725 buy signal that was recovered Tuesday. But it does not confirm Tuesday’s recovery. Nevertheless, reinstating the 1.0550 target requires closing back under 1.0690.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday under the 1290.70 pullback limit extended down sharply to 1275.40, filling the gap back to last Thursday’s close. Reacting up from filling the gap doesn’t necessarily resume the rally, which already has tested and held its 1294.00 target — twice.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging exclusively in negative territory Wednesday was an “inside day,” holding above Tuesday’s dip to 18.05, but not recovering 18.30 to launch a fresh high.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday and trading weaker intraday was an “inside day.” The gap back to Wednesday’s close should be filled at some point, and any further reaction down before then would be likely to recover.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending down almost relentlessly Wednesday fulfilled the 50.65 target. Holding its test through Thursday’s close would still be vulnerable to extending down deeper. Trying to recover too quickly and aggressively Thursday would suggest that a deeper drop is being refueled.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging choppily and relatively narrowly Wednesday above the 3.13 sell signal isn’t necessarily greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. But an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction could still test 3.27 before resolving down.
Mid-day Update… Still make, or break.
Beige Book ahead.
Rallying through the first half-hour to test 2349.00 didn’t begin optimally. Does its reversal down to attack 2338.00 correct it?
The open’s problems finally caught up with it. Not extending this morning’s gap up. Not maintaining the probe above the bias-up target. Violating the pullback limit. Add those problems to those that have been mounting problems since the weekend. Not rallying until very close to Monday’s open. Delaying Tuesday’s recovery of the morning’s bias-down signal. Not gaining traction Tuesday afternoon.
All of which could have been absorbed. Indeed, the problems WERE being absorbed. Tuesday morning’s reaction down was recovered. And this morning’s reaction down entered the noon hour in positive territory. Retracing to this morning’s 2341.75 bias-up signal during the morning’s bias environment would have essentially put into play new lows. But its test was delayed until after noon, so its break doesn’t have to be fatal.
But its break is not yet recovered. In fact, 2341.75 is being tested as resistance as the bias environment is entered. The gap back to yesterday’s close and the 2337.75 bias-down signal were attacked but not triggered. Beige Book is due at the top of the hour, which undermines trending.
Any recovery potential will be based on recovering a prior high at a relevant time, like exiting the bias environment above 2343.50. Otherwise, back under 2339.00 would be vulnerable to resuming the decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A dull weak in econ reports suddenly gets active Thursday. Any noticeable reaction to the pre-open Philly Fed survey (less likely that Jobless Claims triggers a reaction) is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open LEI.
*Jerome Powell Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2351.00 | 2347.25 |
| …would target | 2355.75 | 2352.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.25 | 2337.75 |
| …would target | 2336.25 | 2332.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Better late than never.
Taking long to break resistance. Again.
The overnight rally was still going at it before the open. The 2347.25 bias-up target, which is also the objective left outstanding yesterday, was attacked to within 3 ticks. 
One last pullback to 2343.75 surged 4 points to touch 2347.25 during the open’s first minutes.
Its reaction down exited the opening 15 minutes of volatility while still overlapping yesterday’s 2345.00 high. Only maintaining the gap up doesn’t qualify as extending it. Not extending meant sponsorship was having difficulty attracting reinforcements.
That didn’t prevent a 5-point surge to 2349.25. But it undermined it. The 2347.25 bias-up target was still being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Now a pullback limit has been violated during a pullback to 2344.50.
The renewed target would have been 2352.00. It still could be met, since this is still a bias-up environment. Its test isn’t in-play, but would be signaled back above 2347.25. Meanwhile, back under 2344.25 would start to signal that this buying has only stretched the rubber band to be snapped back down.