S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Make, or break.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Tuesday held the overnight low and quickly rallied, essentially filling the gap back up to Monday’s 2345.00 close to within 2-3 ticks. A consolidation ended at the same moment that the bias environment began lapsing. Reacting down from 2341.00 probed fresh session lows that attacked 2330.00 at noon. Recovering back 2341.00 through the afternoon bias environment held through the close. Each post-open downleg stopped just short of invalidating the morning’s 2347.25 bias objective, which is now “unfinished business above.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late 2341.00 peaks were being prodded and probed before Europe’s opens. The prodding and probing continued through Europe’s opens. But not for much longer, as a surge has broken through to touch 2345.00.
If, then…
Recovering Tuesday morning’s 2337.75 bias-down signal has kept the door open to extending its afternoon recovery. Not recovering 2337.75 until the afternoon bias environment has kept the door open to rejecting the recovery, all but ensuring fresh multi-week lows. Escaping that downside attraction — and compensating for the delayed 2337.75 recovery — requires rallying aggressively. Already firming overnight is a start, but gapping up to and/or through 2345.00 resistance must still extend higher through the open. Especially if the 2347.25 outstanding objective is neutralized. Otherwise, that buying pressure will only have stretched the rubber band to snap back down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2345.00 would be likely to trigger the 2341.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2337.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday instead for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her not a terribly interesting overnight session as far as volatility trading opportunities at cetera maybe we’ve got a sending trying I said maybe because it’s really and consequential landlocked in here surrounded by the price action and I don’t like to look at patterns internally there as a continuation parents reversal patterns typically or part of the bigger patterns so isolated missile triangle doesn’t really do any good but it does give us a focal point this is lower price lower price of the triangle happens also be to 2341 4125 peek of yesterday’s recovery into the bathroom I’m an exit which was a retest of the origin of that last down like that begin instantaneously with the Morning by its environment exit they didn’t extend higher either through yesterday’s final hour or the 310 320 proxy window which would have led to a rise to the clothes so it’s real if there happens to be a dip pre-open wouldn’t expect one Post open of consequences one or I’m sure that will cover it or if it’s tested it’s not like that anyway Monday’s close it’s not just Tuesday night or Monday night’s High 47 that just retested that that happens to a bit as a Monday’s close to buy a sub signal for the next morning natural resistance here or a calculable resistance test all the stuff thrown at the market which is the reason why we have the door still open during these attempts to reject what was put in the that gives us knowing that we got the attraction above and in that context sellers try to reverse and they fail at 10:30 they fail at noon to the relevant level at that time 35 they put all that probably going to be probably through Monday has that played out and it certainly looks at the picture what is here at the High thanks to the snap boat being called yesterday but that upset attraction is neutralized so unless there’s a second consecutive are closed today that made likely be at at least for topping or backing and filling for the pound and in the Aussie which went out testing and cell signal trending that even deeper overnight silver gap down slid continually gravitating back up to 1830 yesterday really needs to recover that pulled back limit there is no requirement to extend any hotair just a likelihood based on the pattern type it its placement versus prize no extent was the highest Target need to close a bug 1294 to put into play any higher highs in fact the putting a plate 1311 me welcome it is now hard 1297d and that’s being probed overnight tonight really getting follow through to that long bone is not going to reverse down suddenly from this fresh High but the bigger question is whether it’s going to extend higher and basically confirmed break up because this is a multi session rain here Friday to Monday and crude oil which broke maintained its prey kinda overlapping 52 or attacking 5270 the cell signal if there’s a break confirm today by a second cuz I get close then 5065 is employee reports this morning and natural gas eia report tomorrow it’s flirting again with 313 cell signal didn’t actually closed under it all right here and I’ll see you before the open please put any questions in the good luck today .
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2345.50 | 2341.75 |
| …would target | 2351.00 | 2347.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2337.25 | 2333.50 |
| …would target | 2331.50 | 2327.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday morning’s first reaction down was normal. The gap back up to Monday’s 2345.00 close was the opening surge’s objective, and it had just been filled to within 2-3 ticks. The reaction down was excessive, all the way back to the morning’s 2337.75 bias-down signal that already had held a test to avoid triggering. It held again. Its offsetting test of 2347.25 was in-play.
Tuesday morning’s second reaction down wasn’t abnormal. It originated precisely as the bias environment began lapsing at 2341.00. And it extended precisely into noon. It was also excessive, and that made it unusual. But still not abnormal, ending almost the same minute as testing the morning’s 2332.50 bias-down target (albeit by 2 points).
Trending back up through the noon hour and afternoon bias environment recovered to test 2341.00. Actually recovering 2341.00 into the final hour or proxy window would have been bullish. More bullish than not bothering to test 2341.00 — twice — without even closing above it. Then the unusual, not abnormal, intraday decline could have been dismissed. Unfinished business above could have been addressed.
But the afternoon’s recovery was a little slow, especially in not recovering 2337.75 earlier, and in holding a test of 2341.00 later. That means keeping the door open to another downleg, which wouldn’t be so unusual at this stage. And that also means tolerating little or no delay before extending the recovery Wednesday, and preferably extending it relentlessly.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday morning’s spike up was already attacked Monday, but Tuesday’s open gapped above it to the 1.0725 bounce limit, and extended through it to test 1.0760. The 1.0550 target below is moot unless reinstated by gapping down Wednesday back under 1.0725.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday morning’s gap down initially extended to 1280.50, before reversing to rally sharply up to the 1294.00 target that had been tested already Sunday night and Monday morning. Its confirmed breakout would target 1311.00, and pullbacks must now hold 1290.70 as support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down to and through 18.30 Tuesday morning slid sharply before recovering into the close to at least attack 18.30. There is no bullish excuse to further delay its actual recovery, which should extend to fresh highs well above 18.55 resistance.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s retest of the 153-11 pullback limit had held, and was recovered entirely to Monday’s ~154-00 highs at Tuesday’s gap up, which extended sharply higher intraday to 155-04.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh pullback lows under the 52.70 sell signal were recovered temporarily Tuesday morning, but then returned to session lows, targeting 50.65.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Further weakness Monday night tested the 3.13 sell signal, which was retested again later Tuesday morning. Its break would be credible for extending down, and would invalidate any potential for a bigger corrective bounce to 3.27.
Mid-day Update… Dragged down, and up.
Bias exit’s drop neither extended nor recovered.
This morning’s 2337.75 bias-down signal held its test easily through 10:15. That put into play an offsetting test of the 2347.25 bias-up target — essentially last night’s high. Meanwhile, the gap back to yesterday’s 2345.00 close had been filled to within 2-3 ticks. Its natural resistance had already triggered a reaction down.
The reaction down extended. The 2337.75 bias-down signal was tested as support into 10:30 to avoid invalidating the 10:15 bias signal. The last opportunity to invalidate the morning’s bias signal would be to enter the noon hour under its bias-down target. Plunging out of the morning’s bias environment exit tried to do exactly that.
The plunge attacked 2330.00 at noon, but was still overlapping the 2332.50 bias-down target. Still not enough to invalidate the morning’s bias. Another higher offset is now outstanding at 2347.25.
Regardless of the new “unfinished business above,” exiting the noon hour back above 2337.75 would have reversed momentum up. That didn’t happen. It’s being touched only now, along with the resistance of this afternoon’s 2337.00 bias-up signal.
Probing 2337.00-2337.75 during the next half-hour would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure. Delaying its probe until the bias environment would still be credible for extending higher into the close — preferably also recovering the morning’s 2341.00 last relative high into the final hour.
Otherwise, exiting the bias environment in decline would resume the earlier slide, and extend it down sharply to 2321.00 and lower.