S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday afternoon’s probing above its 2339.00 bias-up signal was appropriately delayed until exiting the no-bias environment. Then its break extended to probe its bias-up target to 2345.50. Its origin was late enough to not be “no-bias trending” that otherwise would be doomed to failure. That’s a little different from the pre-open surge that originated too late to be the product of strong-handed sponsorship — which has yet to matter.
The optimism is doubly interesting, since fresh highs were probed all this afternoon ahead of high-profile earnings due after the close. While not abnormal, it is unusual. Often, anxiousness paralyzes price action ahead of high-profile news. This suggests that optimism may be a little excessive.
Earnings of high-profile companies often inhibit trending attempts. This is regardless of negative reactions not having a track record of influencing the broader market. But probing fresh highs Monday afternoon ahead of its post-close earnings does seem like excessive optimism. And that is a concern when it develops in the context of trending that has ignored its vulnerability to reversing down already.
Retracing Monday’s rally could be obvious by already trending down overnight. That would be optimal, and in-line with the recent pattern of only retracing prior downlegs, and not actually probing above their origin — Monday’s rally retraced all of Friday afternoon’s downleg. Alternatively, probing higher Tuesday morning should be rejected coming into the noon hour. Otherwise, a bigger corrective bounce or rally is underway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
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Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite having retraced all of Friday morning’s surge to 1.0710 back down to its origin, Monday gapped up to attack Friday’s high. Tuesday must reject Monday’s rally to maintain the decline’s potential for 1.0550.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally through 1297.00 was retraced entirely into Monday’s open. The morning’s highs at least made it back up to the rally’s 1294.00 target. There is no “unfinished business above,” but the rally’s momentum remains intact so long as 1290.50 now holds as support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Slightly higher highs overnight had disappeared by Monday’s open. The session developed exclusively within Friday’s range, not rejecting its probe above 18.30, making likely a stronger probe above 18.55.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing above Friday’s highs Sunday night was retraced before the open to spend Monday under Friday’s highs. The restrained optimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, and keeps alive the upside momentum. But it is still vulnerable to at least a corrective dip.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Since testing the rally’s 53.55 target, flat-to-lower ranging into and out of the weekend is threatening to trigger the 52.70 sell signal targeting 50.65. Sunday night’s lows were retested Monday, and any break would be credible for extending down.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite already having filled the gap back up to last Monday’s 3.19 close, potential for a bigger bounce to 3.27 had remained alive. Monday morning’s dip doesn’t invalidate that potential for a bigger bounce, but but threatens to trigger the 3.13 sell signal first.
Mid-day Update… Stretched.
Ranging narrowly at the morning’s high.
False break, or not, this morning’s bias environment exit was probing above its 2337.25 bias-up target. To 2339.00. The noon hour was greeted by a dip to 2335.50 that bounced back up to 2339.00. And now a shallower dip has also recovered to 2339.00.
2339.00 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal. For all of that testing, it still did not trigger. Its resistance has served to define an Ascending Triangle pattern. Breaking higher during this afternoon’s no-bias environment would likely probe higher, despite being “no-bias trending” that is doomed to failure.
Meanwhile, all overbought RSIs have been neutralized. And this morning’s rally is likely to be retraced at some point, regardless. Back under 2336.50 would signal that retracement is today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 18, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s Fed speaker is predictably hawkish. So, a knee-jerk reaction to her comments would likely fade.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2342.50 | 2339.00 |
| …would target | 2347.50 | 2344.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2334.25 | 2331.00 |
| …would target | 2330.50 | 2327.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.