S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Best wishes for a continued Happy Passover and Happy Easter weekend.
Thursday’s pre-open dip under Tuesday morning’s 2333.50 low was recovered enough to avoid gapping down under it. It was still a gap down, but the likely consequence of not extending down was to rally through the morning.
Reversing straight up did probe Wednesday afternoon’s prior high by 1 point to 2345.00. And then hovered there, waiting for the morning bias environment to lapse. Then it was straight down. The 2327.25 objective was thoroughly tested, and still being tested at the close.
Trending down into the close enables a “session-long rally” setup to form by gapping up Monday above Thursday afternoon’s 2336.25 high. Gapping up and extending through it would qualify. The setup would be more reliable overnight than after a weekend (let alone a holiday weekend). Retracing back down through the open from gapping above it would only resume the decline.
Trending into a holiday weekend isn’t usual, but usually reflects weak hands. Extending down anyway would next target 2321.00 and 2311.00. Recovering from their test would remain possible, but decreasingly likely. A lot of unfinished business above has been left outstanding, which also tends to identify weak-handed sellers. But that hasn’t much affected the trending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. [Apple iPhone and iPad users must view through the Puffin Browser.]
[The older format can be viewed here. Please report any issues with the newer format before we switch to exclusively after Monday.]
See you Sunday night in the chaRTroom here when Globex re-opens.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up after Wednesday’s close in reaction to unfavorable Dollar comments was unable to trend up Thursday, and only ranged around Tuesday’s prior highs. The decline remains vulnerable to resuming, targeting 1.0550.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sharply higher highs overnight came within $4 of the 1294.00 target, needing pullbacks to hold 1287.00 to maintain the upside momentum.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday night’s rally fulfilled the minimum objective above 18.30 to probe the 18.55 prior high. Higher highs are likely so long as 18.30 holds as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday and Wednesday’s refusal to react down from retesting the rally’s target had made fresh highs likely. Surging more than 1 point overnight to 154-10 and gapped up Thursday to entirely above all prior highs. Gapping down under prior highs could form an Island reversal that probes lower temporarily, but Thursday’s high would require retest at some point.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging since fulfilling the rally’s 53.55 target may be supported artificially by other commodities rallying. Regardless, back under 52.70 would target 50.65.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s bounce filled the gap back up to Monday’s 3.23 close, and could extend to 3.27 before reversing down, which would be triggered anyway under 3.13.
Mid-day Update… Morning rally shrinks.
Retesting the open’s lows.
No-bias triggered this morning after already having come within 3 ticks of the 2345.50 bias-up signal. 
That’s close enough not to become “unfinished business below” if not actually touched. It wasn’t.
Meanwhile, breaking lower would have potential to at least 2337.00. A break lower did begin soon after the bias environment began lapsing. Its 2337.00 minimum objective was tested during the noon hour. And now probing more than 2 points lower is threatening the next lower objective at 2333.00.
This is not a bias environment, so trending isn’t restrained. The only restraint is this being the afternoon prior to a three-day holiday weekend. That timing’s difficulty in attracting new sponsorship is almost offset by the proximity to prior lows.
We don’t know with a 100% degree of certainty that a durable downleg is not underway, or that the decline will end today at whatever price. Even if we did, fresh lows to 2327.25 would remain possible. And even the most bullish scenario might not avoid that without triggering this afternoon’s 2338.25 bias-up signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: U.S. stock markets are closed for Good Friday, both cash AND futures. Banks are open, and several econ reports remain scheduled.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2349.00 | 2345.50 |
| …would target | 2354.00 | 2350.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.75 | 2338.25 |
| …would target | 2336.50 | 2333.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.