S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Flat-to-higher, or bust.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s missile attack had triggered a 19-point plunge from 2356.00 to fresh lows, which was recovered entirely overnight. Impressive. Also too bad, at least for the prospects of rallying Friday morning, which sorely missed that buying pressure. Whatever buying pressure remained was spent probing positive territory and 2357.50 resistance, attacking Thursday’s highs up to 2361.50, only to close slightly negative.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-down to 2350.75 and then was soon reversed back up to 2359.00. Already reacting down greeted Europe’s opens hovering unchanged at 2353.50-2355.00. That resolved down aggressively to 2349.75, but only briefly, now being retraced fully back up to 2355.00.
If, then…
Unfinished business above remains outstanding at 2364.50. And it’s likely to be in-play today if the open isn’t trending down. Almost any delay in trending down would be very likely to begin rallying out of the range today. Meanwhile, absorbing yet another attempt to trend down would be difficult at this stage, and likelier to launch a downleg that initially targets 2321.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2356.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2357.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2351.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2350.25 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] optic return alright pretty tame or at least it’s in a Range fluctuating pretty widely in a range and it has touched at least one relevant level that one I mean if it’s touch both by his parameters they’re relatively tight for today 5025 below and 57 above This is the overnight action first flipping down 250 150 75 with coming to 59 basically consolidating here around 57 centered around 57v bias up signal that’s the Apex of this consolidation that resolved down to test 5025 B test the open Zillow right after I recover there’s a little congestion here where your UPS opens were greeted so irrelevant timing window it’s not it’s not unlikely that Monday especially big on Monday it is especially vulnerable to not trippin at all and if we’re greeting the open but here is unchanged to 5250 here’s a range literally Friday’s weight range which is essentially Encompass the entire day of the overnight action here’s an apex that’s natural resistance you know if this isn’t resolving through the open we may very well I’m not very well but we made it rain sideways through the day or through the morning having said that the likelier scenario actually is the trend so long as sellers aren’t in control which I’m not ready to dismiss at this moment so long as sellers are in control through the open that essentially doesn’t always put it in this set up a centrally defaults to being bullish to being flat to hire but having reacted or almost rejected this initial rally back to the low overnight lows back into negative territory at this late stage not yet trying again that keeps the door open to resolving down we should we want to be aware of that in this bigger picture that has failed for a couple 3 Days To recover that has given the lower end of the range the dangerous into the range under 45 couple of scares even profresh Lowe’s overnight you the only one there they could be proved without already reversing down there’s just no more probing a fresh Lowe’s no more threatening the lower end with that actually following through flat tire this morning come through this resistance trainer by ass up and even Riley this morning unfinished business at 6450 is just the beginning of the rewards for buyers that absorb that otherwise actually dipping not buy the fault actually dipping actually chipping away it’s Port triggering bias down does have a lot of downside ahead that gets fit in to these several days of the holiday shortened week before a bullet seasonality picks up Wednesday afternoon okay let’s look at the more kids starting with currencies was he was down fresh close on Friday so it’s not likely to or slightly depressed in the morning maybe getting a little overdone the pound isn’t totally gone yet that’s just one break a pretty big break really break in a singular break but not rejected one more lower close in this pattern and we put off that retest of Monday’s high for a while Louie big failure up here it’s an ongoing at the one called a cell signal is not bullet to be below it going to be holding its test but that hasn’t quite resolved the end new downtrend and finally the euro which really avoid it finally on Thursday actually already started breaking what had been just too long of a consolidation with out yet that is testing the maximum pull back without yet reversing backup there’s a consequence the bicycle becomes lower but I hear it’s lower in the Friday’s close friend extremes not likely to avoid fresh Lowe’s on Monday this stunning lower in silver Friday afternoon has recovered a minimum 1820 1818 1820 even suggest momentum is reversing up you know whether it’s pretty good support here at 1790 remember that was the minimum objective of the break Tire should I know it’s just one day it’s a big break under many many prayers but from above them and so unless there’s a second consecutive lower close that is closing even lower than Friday there is not likely or at least we can’t rely on that was all them down gold meanwhile also gave up a free Superior position just to come back first of all feeling to hold its a pullback them at 1262 and really it’s preferable but back then it was even 12 6530 but 1262 should be recovered today if the rally is resuming anytime soon meanwhile there’s a pretty big test in its place or a pretty big Line in the Sand at 12:50 to 52.62 and that’s being tested here coming into the open Long Pond has not switched it the way it was Justin’s has failed every attempt to exceed what was the original Target 152 oh 21204 now hovering around a cell signal that has already been shipped away this one actually intersection it intersecting with it or anything like that just a Line in the Sand it’s break 15112 still has to contend with which to have taken them with 150 24 that’s where there’s any greater degree of confidence that momentum is reversing down crude oil is up to the reaction hives or attacking the reaction hives from Thursday night Syrian missiles American missiles into Syria and that whole way that holster was a little suspect in the inlet and anyway which it didn’t it was corrected entirely but there was potential for that leg leading up to that face to be reversed back down anyway 250 65 so until closing but 53 and relieve the next subject of his 5355 anyway that is the original Target of this late the minimum Target 355 put until 3:55 or until 53 that is covenants are not going to get cut short for a deeper pull back and finally natural gas again I don’t have any set up here so are being met our highs or lows we call their Doctrine alright once again this is I was recording platform which we’ve been using for quite a while but a year we’re going to be switching from it after this week after we’ve had the opportunity again to test the new recording facility for the that is inherent to the Adobe facility to the W platform that is if you haven’t watched the recording for the Saturday review please do so make sure that it or some of it just make sure it feeds through find your device and we’ll have another one or two this week for everybody to test before jettisoning the silos platform let me know I’ll see you before the open today
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2360.25 | 2357.00 |
| …would target | 2365.25 | 2362.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2353.25 | 2350.25 |
| …would target | 2348.00 | 2344.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
SPECIAL NOTE: IF YOU HAVEN’T YET, PLEASE TEST THE ADOBE CHARTROOM SOFTWARE FRIDAY NIGHT. Last-minute assistance won’t be available before the Saturday Review. I’ll have it available Friday night here. Thank you!
That was an impressive recovery overnight from Thursday night’s missile attack. Too bad. If the recovery couldn’t exceed its origin’s prior resistance (i.e. 2357.50), then it would have been better served by leaving something on the table to attract strong-handed intraday buyers.
The same applies to the afternoon’s surge. If not recovering 2357.50 in time to trigger its bias-up, then probing it later only reflected weak-handed sponsorship. As a corollary, the same applies to the balance of the afternoon bias environment, which wasted even more buying pressure just to hover above 2357.50. Breaking down 6 points under it to 2351.50 into the close reflected weak hands getting flat before the weekend.
That late drop came too late, itself, to be predictive. So long as the pattern remains under 2357.50 through relevant timing windows, the pattern remains vulnerable to capitulation. Strong-handed sellers may have launched such a drop already Friday, if not for the overnight plunge attracting weak-handed sellers ripe to be squeezed. We should know one way, or the other, at Monday’s open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After an ongoing delay and teasing of the pullback limit, breaking lower overnight extended down Friday to greet the weekend probing lower, now targeting 1.0550.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close recovery above the 1252.50 buy signal and Thursday’s gap above it kept the pattern poised for a very favorable reaction to the overnight missile strikes. Surging into Friday’s open extended to test 1273.00, but that was retraced back down to Thursday’s 1256.00 “lower prior highs” as support. So, Monday’s confirmed buy signal still requires at least one more fresh high close. The pullback has room down to 1254.50 to maintain upside momentum, and now also a structural attraction above — Friday’s 1265.00 gap up down above all prior highs should be filled.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday probed above 18.30, which closing above would have confirmed a probe above 18.55 remains in-play. But reversing down closed back at or within Thursday’s range.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Global unease enabled an overnight rally to probe above prior highs up to 153-04. It was nevertheless rejected to close under 152-02, maintaining the topping pattern, which closing under 151-12 would signal is starting to rollover.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Did spiking up overnight to 52.95 on the missile strike overcome Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism”? It was retraced into Friday’s open, but closing above or below 52.40 would either clear the path to the 53.55 target, or else enable a pullback to 50.65.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength hasn’t been any more bullish than to prevent a deep reaction down. Friday’s intraday weakness was yet to shallow to signal momentum reversing down.
Mid-day Update… But square-one was kind of iffy.
Will recovery back up to prior highs prove only a Pyrrhic victory?
Greeting this afternoon’s bias environment at 2356.00 triggered no-bias. Cleanly. Spiking up to 2360.75 at 1:30 doesn’t change that. The 2357.50 bias-up signal was probed too late to invalidate the no-bias. In fact, the spike was retraced almost immediately by 61.8%, testing 2357.50 as support.
And still testing 2357.50 as support. Trending above it would be “no-bias trending,” doomed to failure, back down to the 2357.50 bias-up signal, if not also the 2355.25 1:20 print, and possibly lower.
Potentially much lower. Remember how not recovering 2357.50 through a relevant timing window keeps the afternoon vulnerable to capitulating into the weekend? Well, probing above 2357.50 inappropriately increases that vulnerability.
Which all sounds pretty ominous. Because it can be… if triggered. A probe under last week’s 2317.75 test of would be in-play. Meanwhile, don’t discount the power of failing to trigger the trend’s bias signal Friday morning. The burden of proof here is definitely on sellers.