S&P
Post-open Review… No less bearish than the rally to-date.
Holding resistance through a relevant window. Again.
Despite touching and reacting to the 2362.50 bias-up signal overnight, an offsetting test of the 2351.75 bias-down signal wasn’t in-play. In fact, after reacting down pre-open to within 6 ticks of the bias-down signal, rallying into and out of the open reached the bias-up signal.
But the grace period was invoked, and it wasn’t exploited. So, this is a late no-bias environment. The 2362.50 bias-up signal should define the morning’s upper-end. And an offsetting test of the 2351.75 bias-down signal is in-play.
Since this recovery already includes no-bias trending, we must consider potential for extending higher anyway. And although this morning’s action hasn’t exploded up to fresh highs, it did explode up from the open’s dip. Fresh highs would open that door.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… About, face.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[NOTE: chaRTroom IS A NEW FORMAT, LOGIN EARLY PLEASE]
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s relatively shallow gap down probed the 2350.00 bias-down signal by 1 point. The offsetting test of its 2358.00 bias-up signal was soon fulfilled. A pullback to 2352.00 was recovered to trigger the afternoon’s 2355.75 bias-up signal. Its 2362.00 bias-up target was left outstanding at the close, which had only attacked Tuesday’s 2360.50 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open attacked Wednesday’s 2355.75 bias-up signal as support and firmed back up to 2358.00. Asia’s opens triggered a spike up that immediately fulfilled the intraday 2362.00 objective. Its gradual reaction down reached 2358.00 well before midnight. Europe’s opens triggered a break lower, which has extended into negative territory down to 2353.50.
If, then…
The overnight high touched this morning’s 2362.50 bias-up signal before reversing down. That’s not post-open, so it doesn’t require an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. But as noted during yesterday’s Market Wrap, neutralizing the 2362.00 attraction overnight would be free to trend down before the open. And the pattern through Wednesday’s close was likely to resolve by almost literally exploding up or imploding down — the overnight reaction suggests the latter. Somehow recovering pre-open could find an air pocket up to 2369.00. But continuing to resolve down would target unfinished business below at 2339.75-2342.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2354.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2351.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2349.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2365.75 | 2362.50 |
| …would target | 2371.75 | 2368.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2354.00 | 2351.75 |
| …would target | 2349.75 | 2346.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s relatively shallow gap down ranged relatively narrowly. But its bias was upward, albeit choppily, and “unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2362.00.
Resolving up in this setup should begin by almost literally exploding higher. There is essentially an air pocket up to 2369.00. Similarly, resolving down from this setup instead should almost literally implode down. Unfinished business below and lower prior highs at 2339.75-2342.25 are the likely attraction.
Wednesday differs in an important way from Monday and Tuesday. The two prior sessions had created upside objectives that were neutralized before the close. But the upside attraction created by this most recent session was left outstanding. That’s 2362.00, and neutralizing it overnight could launch a reaction that trends down Thursday. Trending down first would have that upside attraction outstanding to rescue it later.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having reacted straight down since Monday’s gap up, Wednesday’s gap down served as capitulation to the premature reversal attempt. It’s not a buy signal, but the gap back up to Monday’s 1.0935 open should be filled before a durable decline would be credible.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s post-close dip back down to Friday’s close did not extend lower overnight, but its reaction up was shallow.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday kept alive the attraction to “higher prior lows” at 18.30, which remain in-play so long as 17.90 holds as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s test of the 150-24 sell signal wasn’t likely to break lower without first bouncing to fill Monday’s 151-26 gap open at the rally’s 152-00 target. Wednesday’s gap up rejected the test, and flat-to-higher ranging kept alive that attraction above.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing the 48.50 buy signal through Tuesday’s close, the aggressive reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA report probed above 49.00 to further suggest that a durable bottom is forming, testing 49.30 whose recovery would confirm.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to fresh highs Wednesday was too aggressive at this stage of the pattern to be reliable for extending higher, other than greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.