S&P
Mid-day Update… Narrow minding.
No trending today, as the market tends to a narrow range.
Holding a test of the morning’s 2350.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2358.00 bias-up signal. It was probed by 3 ticks. Reacting down 6 points was consolidated through the noon hour, resisted by yesterday afternoon’s 2357.00 bias-up target.
Two representations of buying pressure fulfilled during the last two major timing windows. And still no further rally. Is the rally pausing, or stuck?
There’s also still no significant reversal down. And this afternoon’s bias-up did signal — late, but it is already producing a fresh high for confirmation.
Exiting this afternoon’s bias environment without yet breaking above yesterday’s highs would further suggest the rally’s sponsorship needs refueling. A lot of buying pressure would have been fulfilled at that point, so a shallow reaction down wouldn’t be relevant.
By the same token, exiting the bias environment probing above yesterday’s highs would suggest new sponsorship has arrived. And the flip-side of that token would expect any credible rally to be steep.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 30, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s econ reports are much more high-profile than they are reliable for influencing price action. But three Fed speakers through the balance of the morning can keep price action choppy.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Dennis Kaplan Speaks
11:00 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
11:15 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2359.00 | 2355.75 |
| …would target | 2365.25 | 2362.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2352.00 | 2348.75 |
| …would target | 2343.25 | 2343.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not without a fight.
Pre-open and post-open lows bouncing.
The overnight dip had touched the 2350.00 bias-down signal. Its pre-open bounce up to 2353.25 was retraced, and then extended post-open down to 2348.75. But this morning’s template for trending down has since been ignored.
Instead, a bigger bounce touched 2355.00 as the first half-hour lapsed. Consolidating there for awhile around yesterday’s 2354.50 cash session close has now broken to fresh highs attacking the 2358.00 bias-up signal within 1 tick.
3 ticks would be close enough to fulfill the requirement to test 2358.00. Its test was put into play by holding the bias-down signal’s test. It won’t become unfinished business above if not actually touched this morning.
Back under 2353.50 would start to signal the post-open recovery is failing. Dipping to fresh session lows would still be possible. Otherwise, there’s room up to yesterday’s 2360.50 high before suggesting that the rally is extending, regardless of no-bias trending restraints.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Second time’s a charm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning resumed Monday’s rally. But it was “no-bias trending,” having originated after touching both the 2333.50 and 2342.25 bias signals without breaking either by 10:15. The afternoon’s 2357.00 bias-up target was probed by 3 points but never broken. Reversing down at the bias environment’s exit fell to 2351.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow sideways ranging eventually firmed into Europe’s opens, and then only a little further to within 1 tick of 2357.00. That is resistance, having retraced 61.8% of Tuesday’s late drop. Its reaction down has probed 2351.00 by 1 point.
If, then…
Tuesday’s rally gained no traction, similar to Monday’s. Also similarly, Wednesday morning is vulnerable to trending back down, as was Tuesday morning. But Tuesday did not trend back down. Wednesday is likelier to comply with the near-term bearish influence, less similarly, precisely because Tuesday did not. “Unfinished business below” at 2342.25 is also the beginning of “lower prior highs” down to 2339.75. Their support may suffice to launch the recovery’s next upleg, and to avoid the next lower attraction at Monday’s 2321.00 gap down. Somehow recovering to gap up above Tuesday’s 2360.50 high — or at least above 2357.00 — could extend intraday up to “higher prior lows” at 2369.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2348.00 would be likely to trigger the 2350.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2355.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her second time’s a charm maybe the interesting thing or things about yesterday’s rally one is that Tuesdays or Mondays really didn’t gain traction for itself or it was rewarding without putting into any other higher objective in the play so the only way to Rally durably any durable rally the next day should wait until have him buy some time in his last the four originating otherwise it’s generally sponsored by week and yesterday’s rally started too early as you can see late afternoon dipped that’s not a big Consequence the other big thing about yesterday’s rally was its origination during the environment nope I already been actually but that didn’t prevent breaking any way that should be traced to its broken 4225 at a minimum yesterday’s so it requires being traced or at least back down to some relevant weather is 4825 it’s a different kind of this morning’s influence as likely as it was yesterday morning which didn’t because to resolve differently ignoring the second consecutive morning isn’t it is 321 rallying without leaving any unf inished business below rallying to overcome that fear of influence at least he returned with required gapping up above yesterday’s high so if somehow that develops before the open then it develops before the open and 2369 area is basically hire Prairie Lowe’s and basically a air pocket up to it that’s in case of the Gap up okay any questions of the chart room as far as other markets the Aussie printed a fresh yesterday gap down it’s down under all prior Lowe’s in his you have to be were tested from above really even without that just reading that as a corrective bounce anyway unless there’s a second consecutive are closed today how to pound that letter was just delivered so strength here on that they oversee as to whether or not agree baby boys for the pound of it has already been reflected in this qualify actually and going forward here to make natural gas is just extending the rally why did Jeopardy and hear if I can get through here it gets to hear but I don’t have any bicycle to care for all right listen to recording here if there is any questions go to put into the charger then I’ll see you there before the open good luck today