S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
“No-bias trending” isn’t usual, but it’s normal for strong hands to occasionally not defend against a weak-handed breakout. Retracing the broken bias signal is the normal consequence. Tuesday morning’s no-bias trending was unusual, since both bias signals had been touched before triggering no-bias.
And its consequences remain outstanding. At least Tuesday morning’s 2342.25 bias-up signal requires a retest, if not also the 10:15 2339.75 print. Both due to Tuesday morning’s no-bias trending.
Wednesday morning is vulnerable to trending back down, anyway. Tuesday afternoon, like Monday afternoon, didn’t gain traction for its rally. The afternoon’s 2357.00 bias-up target was met and held, probed too shallowly to create any anchor. The bias environment exit reversed back down through the close to 2351.00.
Tuesday overcame the lack of traction in an atypical way. Wednesday could overcome it by gapping up above Tuesday’s 2360.50 high. There’s essentially an air pocket up to “higher prior lows” at 2369.00. Any less opening strength would be likelier to extend the pullback.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After probing the 1.0900 objective Monday but closing back under it, Tuesday extended further down to test “lower prior highs” at 1.0860. A bounce should fill the gap back up to Monday’s 1.0937 open before any deeper dip would be credible for extending down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s inside day immediately neutralized the gap back up to Monday’s 1258.00 open. A post-close dip tested “lower prior highs” at 1249.50 which must hold to maintain potential for one more higher close.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending the rally Tuesday has returned to the orbit of “higher prior lows” at 18.30, with potential to probe even higher above 18.55 so long as 17.90 holds pullbacks as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s test of the 152-00 objective ended the day testing its 151-12 pullback limit. Extending down Tuesday filled the gap back to Friday’s 151-00 close. A bounce should fill the gap back up to Monday’s 151-26 open before triggering the 150-24 sell signal.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday above last week’s 48.00 resistance extended through the 48.50 buy signal. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would all but seal a bottom.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-higher ranging Tuesday around 3.09 avoided triggering the 2.99 sell signal, but didn’t reinstate the uptrend.
Mid-day Update… Don’t. Look. Down.
No-bias trending pushes higher.
This morning’s 2342 25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger at 10:15. It should define the window’s upper-end if tested during the no-bias environment. Probing above it is called “no-bias trending” and requires being retraced to at least 2342.25 — often back down to the 2339.75 10:15 print.
None of which has prevented this morning’s no-bias trending from extending higher. This afternoon’s 2351.75 bias-up signal has triggered, and its 2357.00 bias-up target is now less than 2 points higher.
There’s no particular timing to fulfilling the required retracement back to 2342.25. And now unfinished business above would be left outstanding at 2357.00. Unless 2357.00 were tested first.
There’s another influence lurking. I just described how this morning’s rally is premature for originating during a no-bias environment. It’s also premature since yesterday’s rally had gained no traction for its effort. So, rallying before late-afternoon is vulnerable to retracing back through its origin.
Rallying in spite of bearish influences may be weak-handed sponsorship, and creating pent-up selling pressure. But meanwhile the bias-up is in-play. And not reacting down to its 2357.00 target could extend even higher.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2361.25 | 2358.00 |
| …would target | 2367.50 | 2364.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2353.25 | 2350.00 |
| …would target | 2347.00 | 2343.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 29, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s two Fed speakers are the session’s likeliest economic catalysts, although the EIA report does arrive with Crude Oil at a vulnerable spot.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:20 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:15 PM ET